jeffthehat
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Posts posted by jeffthehat
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23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
IF T-3
Sales Seats Shows 333 12859 77 Comps (Thu only)
0.24x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $1.1m
0.21x Godzilla x Kong NE T-3 = $2.1m
0.57x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-3 = $2.2m
3.40x Lisa Frankenstein T-3 = $2.4m
AVG = $1.95m
Indiana
IF T-2
Sales Seats Shows 425 15255 94 Comps
0.27x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.3m
0.22x Godzilla x Kong NE T-2 = $2.2m
0.72x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-2 = $2.7m
AVG = $2.07m
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Indiana
IF T-3
Sales Seats Shows 333 12859 77 Comps (Thu only)
0.24x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $1.1m
0.21x Godzilla x Kong NE T-3 = $2.1m
0.57x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-3 = $2.2m
3.40x Lisa Frankenstein T-3 = $2.4m
AVG = $1.95m
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19 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:
I do a T-1 hour update (pull an hour before first shows start for pre 6pm shows, then pull the rest at 5pm. Usually will catch the early wave in those, but my comps only got me up to 4.25m for Thursday instead of the 5m it finally got to.
Def seems like a good method, but maybe it misses when walkups are exceptionally good for 3 pm and 9pm+ shows. However, I see that your T-1 hour comp for GxK NE was ~$4.2m as well, so probably just an underindex.
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Predicting opening weekend is very annoying with these EA shows. Was there ever any clarity on what Civil War grossed true Thursday?
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Wasn’t too keen on this. The end is fun but I found the rest slow/uneven. I wasn’t a fan of Deadpool 2 or Bullet Train either so maybe I just don’t vibe with this director.
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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:
They got a little like this about a year and a half, two years ago (don't remember the exact time frame) and I found if I timed my manual checking to about 10-12 seconds between checks, I could evade the flood control, but once it WAS triggered, I was in for a bumpy night.
This time I'm not as certain about the initial timing flag. Could be x-amount in time-frame, like say "20 checks in 15 minutes", which would mean no amount of pausing would really be sufficient. Maybe. Might have to really play around with timing and experiment on the timing for manual checking.
I mean, I theoretically could take 20/25 second breaks which as I understand it is the region of pausing that some of the autoscrapers use. And that's "fine" for smaller tracks. But waiting that long between checks gets real problematic real fast on the 250-350 showtime tracks, especially on T-0.
Could just be a minor thing where Fandango gets... as I put it "tetchy" for a short to medium term period before lossening the reigns a bit. On the other hand, this could be a more long term thing, and if it is, I am very likely to get a lot more picky about my tracks.
1-2 minute request intervals get around the "not found" error for me but that obviously doesn't cut it on T-0. For GxK NE T-0 I split the shows in half and used two laptops lol. Maybe more machines/vpns could be a workaround. I've never used a rasberry pi but have been considering trying one out for this
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23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
The Fall Guy T-2ish
Sales Seats Shows 531 19708 112 Comps
0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.4m*
0.20x Dune 2 T-2 = $1.8m*
1.43x Challengers T-2 = $2.1m
0.28x GxK NE T-2 = $2.5m*
0.91x Civil War T-2 = $2.7m
*pulled 10-12 hrs earlier, rounded comp down 10% to account
AVG = $2.1m
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Pace hasn't looked encouraging to me in other markets. Challengers finished with meh walkups after good final pace so hopefully the inverse happens here.
Indiana
The Fall Guy T-1ish*
Sales Seats Shows 622 19757 113 *pulled 10PM EST
Comps
0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $1.5m*
0.20x Dune 2 T-1 = $1.8m*
1.33x Challengers T-1 = $2.0m
0.27x GxK NE T-1 = $2.4m*
0.88x Civil War T-1 = $2.6m
*pulled 10-12 hrs earlier, reduced comp 10% to account
AVG = 2.06m
---Not as good of a day here. Slipped a little bit vs. comps. Thinking $2.2m +/- 0.3m true Thursday.
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Indiana
The Fall Guy T-2ish
Sales Seats Shows 531 19708 112 Comps
0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.4m*
0.20x Dune 2 T-2 = $1.8m*
1.43x Challengers T-2 = $2.1m
0.28x GxK NE T-2 = $2.5m*
0.91x Civil War T-2 = $2.7m
*pulled 10-12 hrs earlier, rounded comp down 10% to account
AVG = $2.1m
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Pace hasn't looked encouraging to me in other markets. Challengers finished with meh walkups after good final pace so hopefully the inverse happens here.
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1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:
Minnesota Previews:
Challengers (T-1):
Day: T-1 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 25 theaters 88 105 332 14201 2.34 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 176 64 53.01 MTC1: 198 49 59.64 Alamo: 8 2 2.41 Other chains: 126 54 37.95 Thursday Comps:
0.4x Civil War (THU): $1.16 Million
2.54x Drive-Away Dolls: $890k (17 theaters)
0.4x Mean Girls: $1.05 Million (17 theaters)
1.72x Iron Claw: $1.15 Million (17 theaters)
1.42x Anyone But You: $1.7 Million (17 theaters)
0.82x Asteroid City: $900k (12 theaters)
Average: $1.14 Million
Good growth in the last few days, but still a ways from other markets it seems. Maybe it's the comps but I have always seen this play better with the cinephiles than with the general audience. Maybe I'm wrong though and this will be more like Anyone But You? I hope, but I'm going to go with my numbers here, thinking about the good pace, and go with $1.25 Million, +/- 0.2. With around $600k in previews I could see them round up and report 2 million total previews
Def strange, Indiana and Minnesota usually show similar. I think your biggest theater starting presales late could be skewing things a lot. But maybe not. We'll see!
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23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
Challengers T-2ish
Sales Seats Shows 372 14142 86 *pulled 10 PM EST
Comps
0.23x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.1m
0.14x Dune 2 T-2 = $1.4m
0.64x Civil War T-2 = $1.9m
2.74x Imaginary T-2 = $2.0m
0.20x GxK NE T-2 = $2.0m
AVG = $1.68m
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Pace looks really good here. This is like T-1.5 relative to when I pull in the US, so average is likely overshooting today. But Civil War was pulled at same time and it's the one I'm paying most attention to.
Indiana
Challengers T-1
Sales Seats Shows 468 N/A 95 *pulled 9 PM EST
Comps
0.26x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.2m*
0.15x Dune 2 T-2 = $1.5m*
0.66x Civil War T-2 = $1.9m
0.20x GxK NE T-2 = $2.0m*
3.54x Lisa Frankenstein T-1 = $2.1m*
2.98x Imaginary T-2 = $2.2m*
*pulled 10-12 hours earlier
AVG = $1.82m
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Had to count about 20 shows by hand. Pacing a little better than Civil War, which had one of the best paces I've tracked. MTC1 is ~57% of sales. For Civil War it was ~65% on T-2 or so. So don't think it's gonna be a big MTC1 skew like Monkey Man. Thinking ~$2m Thu-only as well.
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On 4/22/2024 at 1:53 PM, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
Challengers T-3
Sales Seats Shows 229 11180 65 *pulled 12 AM EST
Comps
0.16x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $0.8m
0.98x Dune 2 T-3 = $1.0m
1.68x Imaginary T-3 = $1.3m
0.14x GxK NE T-3 = $1.4m
0.57x Civil War T-3 = $1.7m
AVG = $1.24m
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Average is undershooting a bit because I pulled 10-12 hrs earlier than usual. Civil War was pulled around same time and it looks good.
Indiana
Challengers T-2ish
Sales Seats Shows 372 14142 86 *pulled 10 PM EST
Comps
0.23x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.1m
0.14x Dune 2 T-2 = $1.4m
0.64x Civil War T-2 = $1.9m
2.74x Imaginary T-2 = $2.0m
0.20x GxK NE T-2 = $2.0m
AVG = $1.68m
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Pace looks really good here. This is like T-1.5 relative to when I pull in the US, so average is likely overshooting today. But Civil War was pulled at same time and it's the one I'm paying most attention to.
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Indiana
Challengers T-3
Sales Seats Shows 229 11180 65 *pulled 12 AM EST
Comps
0.16x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $0.8m
0.98x Dune 2 T-3 = $1.0m
1.68x Imaginary T-3 = $1.3m
0.14x GxK NE T-3 = $1.4m
0.57x Civil War T-3 = $1.7m
AVG = $1.24m
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Average is undershooting a bit because I pulled 10-12 hrs earlier than usual. Civil War was pulled around same time and it looks good.
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7 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:
I had never heard of Santikos before coming to BOT, so I just researched it a bit. All its 10 theaters emanate out of its headquarters in San Antonio ("Remember the Alamo!"), TX, an area which has seen its share of wars over time. Pure spitball that this area might be especially primed to see a movie depicting a Texas uprising against larger government (which is mentioned in trailers). It's also not exactly a secret that Texans like to joke about Texas being its own country anyway. I don't mean this disparagingly; pre-COVID, I spent weeks at a time for work in Houston & Dallas, and I met plenty of well-educated lifelong Texans (many liberal) who still joked with barely concealed pride about Texas being so different from the rest of the US. The Texas-California alliance against the US mentioned in CW trailers could be subliminal catnip in the Santikos geography. Further, San Antonio is educated and somewhat liberal from everything I've read, so another decent chunk of its population might also be the A24 types. All that is to say, I would not be surprised to see these theaters overindexing.
I also read that "Santikos Entertainment is a for-profit company that exists for the sole purpose of giving back to non-profits in the San Antonio area in the form of donations, sponsorships, grants, and programming." That makes it fairly unique among theater chains, and again suggests that it might attract a larger percentage of the audience that wants to feel like their ticket money is going to local causes and might already know about A24/Garland.
Again, nothing above meant as disparaging, just observational.
I'm going to especially enjoy following your Santikos tracking moving forward.
It’s always fun digging into the nuances of regional tracking. I started tracking because I wanted to see how well TS Eras was doing in the South
A 33% increase Saturday from true Friday is fairly standard though. Wouldn’t surprise me if Santikos gave the real number today
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6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
Could be the movie was VERY over indexed at MTC1, maybe due to limited geography appeal, maybe due to very limited GA, etc...
Overindexed MTC1 more than expected but pretty sure the $2.9m was just Thu. Would have to be a bigger MTC1 overindex than Monkey Man for <$2.9m true Thu to be possible and none of the data here suggested that.
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20 hours ago, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
Civil War T-2
Sales Seats Shows 581 16164 92 Comps
0.37x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.7m
0.22x Dune 2 T-2 = $2.2m
4.30x Imaginary T-2 = $3.1m
0.30x Godzilla x Kong T-2 = $3.0m
5.38x Lisa Frankenstein T-2 = $3.8m
AVG = $2.76m
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Pulled ~8 hrs later than usual. Should probably round the average down 5-10% or something to account for the time change.
Indiana
Civil War T-1
Sales Seats Shows 706 16564 98 Comps
0.39x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $1.8m
0.23x Dune 2 T-1 = $2.3m
0.30x Godzilla x Kong T-1 = $3.0m
4.50x Imaginary T-1 = $3.3m
5.35x Lisa Frankenstein T-1 = $3.7m
AVG = $2.82m
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Has risen against comps past few days. Thinking around 3m too.
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Great trailer. Def feels like this can win 2024. Seems like audiences are craving originality more than anything now.
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21 hours ago, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
Civil War T-3
Sales Seats Shows 461 15346 87 Comps
0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $1.6m
0.19x Dune 2 T-3 = $1.9m
3.39x Imaginary T-3 = $2.5m
0.29x Godzilla x Kong T-3 = $2.9m
4.75x Lisa Frankenstein T-3 = $3.3m
AVG = $2.44m
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In Asia for a month, so sales pulled about 10 hrs later than usual. Won't have much time to track sadly.
Indiana
Civil War T-2
Sales Seats Shows 581 16164 92 Comps
0.37x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.7m
0.22x Dune 2 T-2 = $2.2m
4.30x Imaginary T-2 = $3.1m
0.30x Godzilla x Kong T-2 = $3.0m
5.38x Lisa Frankenstein T-2 = $3.8m
AVG = $2.76m
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Pulled ~8 hrs later than usual. Should probably round the average down 5-10% or something to account for the time change.
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On 3/25/2024 at 12:48 AM, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
Civil War T-18
Sales Seats Shows 108 12860 69 Monkey Man had 88 sales on first day, so starting a little better than that here
Indiana
Civil War T-3
Sales Seats Shows 461 15346 87 Comps
0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $1.6m
0.19x Dune 2 T-3 = $1.9m
3.39x Imaginary T-3 = $2.5m
0.29x Godzilla x Kong T-3 = $2.9m
4.75x Lisa Frankenstein T-3 = $3.3m
AVG = $2.44m
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In Asia for a month, so sales pulled about 10 hrs later than usual. Won't have much time to track sadly.
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22 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
Amazing start. Now the Sat hold and Sun drop will determine if it settles in the high 70s for the weekend or may still approach 80M+
If studios are fudging now $80m might be locked 😄
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23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:
Malco
Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-0
Day Sales Seats Shows Thu 1516 11858 68 Thu Comps
1.18x Ghostbusters FE T-0 = $5.6m
0.67x Dune 2 T-0 = $6.7m
1.17x HG BoSS T-0 (10 theater) = $6.7m
1.14x Marvels T-0 (10 theater) = $7.5m
2.60x Wonka T-0 (10 theater) = $9.2m
THU AVG = $7.14m
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Adding 10 theater comps brings the average up here. Overall the data I've got from Malco and Indiana hasn't seemed strong, suggesting weakness in the midwest/south for this. But like M37 said, releases from the past 6 months have skewed frontloaded/fan-driven. And I've only been tracking for that long. So could just be a mirage. Def interested to see where this ends up.
Malco
Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-0
Day Sales Seats Shows Fri 5383 N/A 235 Comps
1.18x Dune 2 T-0 = $23.8m
3.56x GxK NE Thu T-0 = $35.6m (lol)
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Had issues with my script but managed to hand count sales for the errors. Crazy amount of shows today. Thinking high 20s
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On 3/26/2024 at 5:27 PM, jeffthehat said:
Malco
Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-2
Day Sales Seats Shows Thu 957 11858 68 Fri 1708 21541 114 Thu Comps
1.17x Ghostbusters FE = $5.5m
0.60x Dune 2 = $6.0m
Fri Comp
0.67x Dune 2 = $15.0m
THU AVG = $5.75m
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Thursday comps rose but not by a ton. +17.6% growth on the day. Friday growth a lot better though.
Malco
Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-0
Day Sales Seats Shows Thu 1516 11858 68 Thu Comps
1.18x Ghostbusters FE T-0 = $5.6m
0.67x Dune 2 T-0 = $6.7m
1.17x HG BoSS T-0 (10 theater) = $6.7m
1.14x Marvels T-0 (10 theater) = $7.5m
2.60x Wonka T-0 (10 theater) = $9.2m
THU AVG = $7.14m
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Adding 10 theater comps brings the average up here. Overall the data I've got from Malco and Indiana hasn't seemed strong, suggesting weakness in the midwest/south for this. But like M37 said, releases from the past 6 months have skewed frontloaded/fan-driven. And I've only been tracking for that long. So could just be a mirage. Def interested to see where this ends up.
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On 3/26/2024 at 5:42 PM, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-2
Sales Seats Shows 1905 30759 179 Comps
0.72x Dune 2 T-2 = $7.2m
1.20x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $5.7m
1.61x Madame Web V-day = $9.7m
AVG = $7.53m
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+17.9% growth on the day, almost same as Malco. Added Madame Web opening Wednesday as a high-growth comp.
Indiana
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-1
Sales Seats Shows 2328 33179 198 Comps
0.77x Dune 2 T-1 = $7.7m
1.29x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $6.1m
1.39x Madame Web V-day T-1 = $8.3m
AVG = $7.4m
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Dropped a bit against comps. Thursday hasn't looked that strong in the markets I track but could just be underindexing. No prediction for tomorrow, rooting for $8.5m+
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On 3/25/2024 at 4:44 PM, jeffthehat said:
Indiana
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-3
Sales Seats Shows 1615 28352 163 Comps
0.69x Dune 2 T-3 = $6.9m
1.16x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $5.4m
AVG = $6.15m
Indiana
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-2
Sales Seats Shows 1905 30759 179 Comps
0.72x Dune 2 T-2 = $7.2m
1.20x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $5.7m
1.61x Madame Web V-day = $9.7m
AVG = $7.53m
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+17.9% growth on the day, almost same as Malco. Added Madame Web opening Wednesday as a high-growth comp.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by jeffthehat
Indiana
IF T-1
Comps
0.28x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $1.3m
0.21x Godzilla x Kong NE T-1 = $2.1m
0.61x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-1 = $2.3m
AVG = $1.90m
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Slipped a little vs. comps. Sub-20% growth seems bad at this stage and opening size for a family film. But maybe walkups are better than presales suggest. Thinking $1.8m +/- $0.2m tomorrow.