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Bob Train

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    Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

    The Martian is from 2015 and made $630m worldwide.

     

    As an awards drama released in 2021, House of Gucci making $153m worldwide is nothing to sneeze at. If HoG had been held to 2022, I think it would have been boosted at least another $50m WW.

     

    But it's probably not wrong to say Ridley's movies are more miss than hit  these days, at least financially. Napoleon had a decent start for what it is in this era, audiences just didn't like it enough so the legs suffered.

     

     

    I was referring to The Martian I just forgot how many years ago it was

     

    Point is, even after all his historical epics have not exactly been hits like Exodus, Last Duel, Napoleon, etc. He still gets massive budgets solely based off his name. I’m sure after all those movies flopped people said he would surely never get that kind of budget again, but he does.

     

    When KOTFM and Napoleon released, a lot of people were saying Apple would never put out these kinds of huge budgeted flicks again, but they still have Project Artemis and Wolfs scheduled for this year. Point is, there are other factors that go into how these decisions are made than just our limited understanding of the box office.

    Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, excel1 said:

     

    Scorsesee clearly isn't an overly compelling draw these days, have to think the days of his getting blank checks are 100% over.

    Ridley Scott still gets $200m blank checks despite not having made a hit in 11 years. He has even more projects lined up like the Bee Gees Biopic and another action movie.

     

    Name recognition goes a long way in Hollywood.

    Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

    Maybe but consider how much the filmgoing landscape has changed since 2018, especially for that type of fall awards hopeful. Here's the box office of last year's arthouse/prestige Best Picture nominees (excluding EEAAO as it was a spring release launched without big Oscar aspirations):

     

    Women Talking: $9.18m WW ($5.46m DOM)

    Tár: $29.14m WW ($6.77m DOM)

    Triangle of Sadness: $32.89m WW ($4.6m DOM)

    The Fabelmans: $43.28m WW ($17.35m DOM)

    The Banshees of Inisherin: $52.34m WW ($10.58m DOM)

     

    For a film with the content/subject matter of Poor Things to make twice as much as last year's most successful fall prestige-y awards hopeful, as a 2023 movie, is IMO extremely impressive even if it doesn't end up matching The Favourite's admissions.

    Yeah Oscar movies have done way better this year. Holdovers, American Fiction, Poor Things (especially impressive considering borderline NC-17 subject matter) are grossing more domestically than Fabelmans directed by Steven Spielberg. And that is despite none of these movies really being thought of as the frontrunner, whereas Fablemans was thought by some as the frontrunner in the Fall.

    • Like 2

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Relevation said:

    If @M37 is right about KFP4 going to something like a 14-15x IM, is the $30M range not too low for how it’s doing in previews? Like KFP4 will probably have pretty good walkups because preview pace has been a bit slow and it’s a Uni animated film, so if we assume it goes to around $3M+ in comps… would that not take it to $40M+ for the weekend? Maybe even $50-60M+ if it gets closer to $4M? If this is going for a big IM then I think the current sales so far are good enough to warrant upping the forecasts here.

    KFP4 walk ups on THU may be worse than summer movies or Migration (THU was essentially a summer weekday). There is Spring Break, but that is more dependent on region, not nationwide.

    • Like 2

    Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

    Fantastic early Sat number. Goes to show how WOM is traveling faster and faster every year and also how much longer movies truly profit from Saturdays (and Sundays).

    I agree. John Wick 4 was longer than Dune but only had a +25% jump, so IMO older demo skew, WOM, and PLF lure contribute to great bump. I think it is the most impressive Sat bump for any movie since Mario, since Saturdays have been weaker post-COVID.

    Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, AJG said:


    Most movies now are either a flop or not making as much money as they could’ve. Studios are also going out of there way to minimise the coverage a flop receives for being a flop (remember that movie where J-Law ‘brought back the R-Rated comedy?’).


    TMNT gets a sequel because Paramount thinks there’s room for the series to grow. Dune 2 might lose money. So be it. The market flipped over night. Movies are being given a lot more grace than they used to get when it comes to BO nowadays.

    How is Dune 2 gonna lose money, it is on track to make $600m-$700m on a $190m budget.

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