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rayjulio

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    OPPENHEIMER | 644.2M overseas | 974.1M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    7 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

     

    those number from europe is fantastic. uk with very strong weekdays and sub 30% hold. germany with even more impressive weekend hold than france.netherlands also is phenomenal, already 2.7x its opening weekend. 

     

    i think with 2 more sub 40% hold in weekend even 450m OS without China and Korea is possible.

     

    UK 75m 

    Germany 35m

    France 35m

    Spain 17m

    Italy 15m

    Mexico 17m

    Brazil 12m

    Australia 30m

    Korea 50m

    China 50m

     

    550m OS 

     

    • Like 1

    OPPENHEIMER | 644.2M overseas | 974.1M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by rayjulio

    400m after this weekend (175m domestic and 225m overseas) 

    540m after next weekend

    630m august 11 weeekend ( last weekend in imax ) 

    750m with all remaining markets ( there is still 15 august holidays that will boost weekdays in some european markets too )

    if this breakout in china and korea, even 900m is possible.

     

     

     

     

    • Like 1

    OPPENHEIMER | 644.2M overseas | 974.1M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by rayjulio

    Europe 200m

    Latam 25m 

    Oceania 25m

    Asia - East Asia 60m

    310m

    Italy 10m

    Korea 40m

    360m

     

    Need 40m more from China + Japan + Vietnam + Greece to get 400m

     

    Might be hard task but there is other scenario if Europe can legs better as this kind of movie can get up to 5x multiplier.

     

    Best case scenario 350 dom + 450 os

    800m 

    OPPENHEIMER | 644.2M overseas | 974.1M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    OS OW 

    Dunkirk vs Oppenheimer ( forecast )

    UK 13m vs 13m

    France 5.5m vs 7.5m

    Germany 2.1m vs 5m

    Spain 1.95m vs 2.5m

    Italy 3.5m vs ???

    Brazil 1.65m vs 2m

    Mexico 1.7m vs 4m

    Australia 4.7m vs 5m

    India 1.8m vs 7m

    SoKor 8.7m vs ???

    China 29.6m vs ???

     

    Currently most impressive big markets compares to Dunkirk is India and Mexico. Germany also impressive nearly 2.5x times dunkirk. Saudi Arabia also should be here as one of the biggest markets.

     

    OPPENHEIMER | 644.2M overseas | 974.1M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    wow deadline said 88.9m weekend estimate for international opening weekend, that would be massive. even 80m ow already far higher than my intial 60-70m os ow but now 88.9m weekend. 

     

    this also without SK and Italy. those two probably combining will get 20m weekend.

     

    incredible number all around. middle east must be massive because i dont think europe overperform that much

    C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Nolan brand is not just domestic. Look at crazy openings in many markets. Saudi Arabia is 2nd biggest OD ever behind just NWH and ahead of MI7 last week. India also has had biggest OD for the year. I think there are other markets where it broke out big(Eastern European if I am not wrong) and even in markets where Barbie has been a juggernaut, Oppenheimer has had a solid number 2 like Down Under, UK and France. 

    all of those contries is true but nolan brand will show up its true full potential when it release in Korea and will get opening weekend in 15-20m range. 

     

     

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

    Want to avoid derrailing the thread, so apologies that I started this in the UK thread.

     

    To note the scores in Singapore, HK and Taiwan movies sites are strong too; but a lot of these people knows how to appreciate a deliberately paced character study film.

    My observations of G.A. came from the premiere I attended on Wednesday - some people were using phone and walked out; and murmurs of how "boring" it was when the movie ended.. as well as the multiple Movie groups in Asia I am in (across Taiwan, HK, Sg, Msia) and from speaking to friends..

     

    For avoidance of doubt, I loved it and hope it has good legs - and I genuinely hope my observations are wrong...

    ah yeah, i kind of agree with this. i think this movie will relate more in europe and usa. i think legs will not be crazy like 4x or more but 3.25-3.5x seems achievable. in asia probably will be average but imax for 3 weeks will help this movie everywhere i guess

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

    Tricky thing is that.. general audience (at least here in Asia) seems to have mixed feelings after watching Oppenheimer; some call it the best Nolan film, some said they walked out of the theater midway.

    same again, i dont want to talk about this in another country thread but just because you said about Asia, so i can said my opinion because i live there. 

     

    I dont know about another country but in Indonesia, oppenheimer reception isn't that bad. 9.3 in major cinema chain score is very good actually, its even better than barbie. Also controlling all imax in 3 weeks help it's legs. 

     

    Even bibo ( indonesia source for box office) in twitter said that 6m combined for barbie and oppenheimer is possible. that mean oppenheimer will get probably 2.5m, that's already bigger than dunkirk entire run here. 

     

    lastly, A cinemascore and 5 star posttrak. what more ?

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rayjulio

    8 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

    I think this was my favorite Nolan venture since The Dark Knight. Just such an utterly compelling, masterful piece of cinema that utilizes every trick available to it to remain riveting even when the "action" onscreen is literally just a bureaucratic procedural.

     

    I couldn't really get a definite read on how my boomer-heavy sellout crowd reacted to it, but given that I saw it at a pub cinema where the wait staff were in and out with drink orders every five minutes or so, I feel like I would have heard them voice their boredom or displeasure if there had been any, so... stellar, then?

    i'm kind of agree with you, surprisingly i thought even women under 25 appreciate this movie more given their review that i read and of course men under 25 and 25-40 very favourable to this movie. So gen z and millenial men seems really like it. So i guess even with A cinemascore, i'm kind of tempering my expectation a bit for this movie legs.

     

    85/275 should be the target for now. unless it drops only 50% in Monday then yeah 300 

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rayjulio

    to be fair for audience reception

    its already get

    94% in RT 

    9.0 in IMDB

    4.4 in letterboxd

    4.4 in allocine for france

     

    all of them is either joint number 1 or number 2 in every nolan movies. what more do you guys want ? 

     

    nolan movies always get mid cinemascore but it doesnt stop them to having average 3.5x multiplier. even dunkirk get those with less imax demands. 

     

    if you guys look at twitter or letterboxd, many audience recommend this movie or want to see it again. sure there is like 5-10% who might get bored because they aren't the target demographic at first and only get pulled because barbenheimer madness.

     

    80m/280m still very good number.

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