blackspider
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Posts posted by blackspider
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Glad Empire prefaced he’s going conservative today so this # should hold more firmly than that $30m number yesterday which was just mind boggling from the jump. Domestic crown looks like it’s all for the taking if it can keep this up.
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Barbie is making Monday a second Sunday with that type of #. Man that’s insane if that holds.
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Absolutely incredible number for Avatar following its Friday #. Won’t be surprised if actuals come in higher either.
Last week I was assuming 650-700. Right now, 700+ and domestic crown seems completely plausible. Insane recovery after its
underwhelming opening week.
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Even with Thursday coming in sub 7m, I see this baby hitting 45m+ this weekend. We’ve all been seeing great Friday increases for it and finally it’ll have a Saturday not muted by a holiday.
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Anything over 10m would be fantastic!
I’m assuming this movie would set the record for most consecutive days over 10m if it can clear it today. Happy to see this film chugging along nicely.
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Well with an 18m Saturday, that’s the first day since Xmas Eve that is more down to earth.
Can’t be too surprised it’s daily performance got muted by the holiday. Big question is how much it will rebound today and tomorrow. Won’t be surprised if actuals beat the estimates. 600m+ is a foregone conclusion IMO. I’d say 650-700 looks definitely feasible. The hold next weekend will be critical for its long term outlook.-
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Avatar’s numbers from Christmas Day onward have been nothing short of amazing.
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Damn I went to bed with the 20-23 range and now it’s at 24m! Not too shabby.
Hoping for a solid hold today as Wednesday drops tend to make or break the weekend outlook.
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I’ll do movies only, TV shows too hard to mix in as it’s not as apples to apples as I’d like.
1. Empire Strikes Back
2. Revenge of the Sith
3. A New Hope
4. Rogue One
5. Return of the Jedi
6. The Phantom Menace
7. The Force Awakens
8. Attack of the Clones
9. Rise of Skywalker
10. Solo
11. The Last Jedi
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2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
20 - 23
Average would be ~21.5 but i don´t think it really work this way so...
Gotcha, thank you!
Overall seems pretty solid. I was assuming anything over 20m a win.
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2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
Same page
Hmm not even gonna even attempt to decipher this haha. -
I’m late on the uptake and not gonna sift through the countless pages in the thread.
Any Tuesday update?
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Had a slight suspicion the tracking for Aladdin was a bit low. Caught it last night, it’s a crowd pleaser, perfect type of film to enjoy over the holiday weekend.
Hoping JW can pull 30m 4 day. Looks like it will end the streak of getting a 3 multiplier but to be expected following its massive opening.
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I think TFA has warped our perspectives a bit. Let’s not forget that TFA was the first modern blockbuster to break the OW crown and claim top domestic performer and did so convincingly.
We’ve seen the OW record fall countless times and most didn’t come close to being #1 all-time.
I know a counter argument to that would be since Endgame broke the record by such a large margin it’s road to #1 is easier. It’s true, it beat the previous OW by 38%.
Only other recent example that comes close is Spider-Man which beat Harry Potter by 28%. A still collosal opening for its time much like Endgame.
Spider-Man fell about 200m short of the all-time spot despite having a terrific run. In fact, if Endgame ends around 850m it will be around 90% of TFA’s total, much better than the 67% Spider-Man had against Titanic.
Maybe not a true apples to apples comparison, but what was true back then still applies today; what goes up must come down.
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6 minutes ago, JB33 said:
I think maybe at the end of the day some of us were just hoping the fun with EG's box office would last a little longer. I don't think there's any genuine disappointment in the numbers from anyone here, though it may feel like it in a way.
That’s a fair point. Once the 2nd weekend started coming in, things kinda came back down to earth and while the numbers are huge, they weren’t blowing people away.
TFA made every prior blockbuster look like a bitch domestically.
Now that is the benchmark so Endgame gets measured to that standard, whether fair or not.
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2 minutes ago, Webslinger said:
We're in such a different age for mega-blockbusters that you can't use legs quite the same way as you could even a decade ago to gauge how well a huge film is received. Putting Endgame aside for a second, consider the following examples:
- The Hunger Games, Beauty and the Beast, and Spider-Man: Homecoming all stayed in the top ten for ten weeks apiece, and none hit a 3.0 opening-to-total multiplier. They each had fairly long-lasting staying power even though their multipliers may not say so at first glance.
- Black Panther, which had extremely strong audience reception, stayed at #1 for five weekends, and spent the entirety of its theatrical-to-physical home media window in the top ten, "only" landed a multiplier of around 3.465.
(And yes, measuring time in the top ten is arbitrary and dependent upon the release slate around a given film, but I still think it's a fair measure given that even many films with higher opening-to-total multipliers don't pull it off.)
The biggest movies open so huge so fast with so much available screen space that even more casual fans have the opportunity to catch a major tentpole in its opening weekend. Unless we see something extremely dramatic - like a film falling under a 2.0 multiplier - I wouldn't necessarily read into it as weak word-of-mouth so much as a reflection of cinemas' increasing ability to accommodate massive demand over the first few days of release.
Agreed. Also the advantage new movies have of opening Thursday night has essentially made the OW 3.5 days. We often judge the movies 2nd weekend drop with previews taken out. But that’s still money and demand burned and Endgame is the first movie to truly take advantage of how much demand can be satisfied in an opening. TFA opened during the holidays so it was slightly subdued but based off its performance, I have no doubt it would’ve pulled something similar with Endgames release date.
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Another reason I believe Endgame is falling harder than most people would like is during its OW, many people were forced to get 3D showings due to 2D showings being in higher demand. That brought the 3D share up to 46% in its OW, a pretty high number in 2019.
But once the demand goes down, the 2D share goes up and 3D goes down. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 3D share is below 20% now. So the amount of people watching week to week might not be as steep as it looks, but in terms of real dollars it’s feeling it.
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2 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:
I think it helps in John Wick's case that the first only did modest business. Most sequels that increase from the first are following a movie that did respectable but not amazing business, like in the case of Austin Powers, or are following a film that was very successful, but wasn't one of the years 1, 2, or 3rd highest grossing flick like say Lethal Weapon. John Wick falls in the first category.
Huge movies that have sequels will generally decrease, because while they open huge, they don't quite have the same sort of repeat value as the first, especially back in the day when that mattered.
I had a similar assessment, the first ones modest run gave its sequel plenty of room to grow and it did just that. More than doubled the original OW and final gross. 90m for a hard R action movie was a huge win but where would it go from here?
Now we’re seeing the third attempt to pull off another massive increase and enter official blockbuster status as one of the great action franchises in recent memory.
If that’s not impressive, I don’t know what is. It’s refreshing to know movies can still impress me despite the fact we witnessed a movie make 357 million dollars in a weekend just a few weeks ago.
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25 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Blair Witch 2 is the inverse.
Domestically it made 18.5% of the original. Absolutely god awful. Then they made a 3rd and it did even worse!
Just thought of another recent example. Alice in Wonderland: 334m
Alice Through the Looking Glass: 77m
Only 23% retention. Alice in Wonderland is one of the flukiest BO runs in recent memory. Probably the film that benefitted the most on the post-Avatar 3D hype. After it made $1B WW, that benchmark lost some of its luster for me.
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4 minutes ago, baumer said:
It was pretty commonplace in the 70s and 80s for the first film to do Master business and then the sequel, even if it was a good one decreased significantly. Look at jaws and Star Wars and raiders of the lost ark and Beverly Hills cop and so on.
We’re having some good synergy going today. I say essentially the same thing haha. Just like the good ole days at BOM.
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5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Blair Witch 2 is the inverse.
Domestically it made 18.5% of the original. Absolutely god awful. Then they made a 3rd and it did even worse!
I would venture and say every comedy from the 70’s and 80’s that got a sequel saw massive decline from the first. They were effortless cash grabs that rarely got original cast to come back and were usually shit movies.
Hollywood has learned its lesson and now is dependent on sequels so we see much higher quality sequels than in years past.
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6 minutes ago, baumer said:
@blackspider this is what you were mentioning. I thought the same as you.
Yep, I’m in full agreement this is rare territory. I do take in account the low opening of the first to slightly downplay it but usually when the first one opens low, the sequel is the one that reaps all the benefits and the third has the task of matching it which isn’t the case here. This is unprecedented to see its audience expand in such a short time.
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Endgame vs. TFA reminds me of Revenge of the Sith vs. Phantom Menace. I remember being so stoked after Sith’s then massive 50m OD and 158m 4 day. I was pretty confident it would pass Menace, WOM was mostly positive and it had finale factor. But like Endgame experienced with TFA, Sith just couldn’t keep up with the relentless consistency of Menace after it’s huge opening and fell well short.
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26 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:
Fast and Furious, maybe. But they had to reconceive it to get to those heights whereas John Wick's appeal has stayed fundamentally the same.
Yep, the F&F franchise biggest strengths was flipping the script and deviate from car racing and focus on delivering over the top action and its emergence as an OS juggernaut. But it’s had some misfires as a whole, understandable after 8 entries.
The Bourne trilogy saw healthy increases with each entry but peaked after 3. It’s hard to keep the momentum going, but if JW 4 gets made, I wouldn’t doubt it.
Weekday numbers July 24-27
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Assuming the 21m for Barbie sticks, that means it maintained 80% of the 26.1m on Monday.
Looking at other massive July openers for comparison:
Lion King: 71%
HP7 Part 2: 62%
TDKR: 68%
TDK: 67%
Thor 4: 68%
This thing is a monster!