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stuart360

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    Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by stuart360

    24 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

     

    $2.3-2.375B

    Its pretty clear to me that the film would of been challenging the orig AVATAR, and 3bil, if covid hadnt ravaged China (and if the pandemic never happaened at all, it would of probably blown past 3bil).).

    Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

    So TGM will take DOM 2022 and ATWOW will take OS/WW. Good stuff. 

     

    For 2023, I'll take GOTG3 DOM but I'm not sure about OS or WW yet. Maybe Fast X? MI:DR1? Mario? Indy 5? Aquaman 2?

    If people didnt already know that DC is rebooting everything again, making Aquaman kind of pointless to an extent, i would of picked Aquaman 2 for ww this year.

    • Like 1

    Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

    I think JW should be nearly locked at this point. Even if it falls back to 100% NWH dailies that would still be enough to get it to 675m. Aim for Infinity War and then 700m and Black Panther and see where we go from there.

    I do feel JW is pretty much locked at this point, but i was thinking 700mil was still well in play as i was thinking AntMan was going to be the first film to take most of the PLF screens (i know Titanic is before but no one seems to know if its a wide release or a more limited release).

    Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

    Yeah this is the same comp I'm looking at, it's remarkable how close A2 has been to 140% NWH since the holiday period ended. Unfortunately I don't think it will be able to keep up with it once Titanic and Antman eat away at its PLFs. The only path I can see for it to beat TGM now is if it can continue with 140% NWH on weekdays and then try for 160-180% on weekends to build up a bit of a lead, lose its PLFs but then get them back after a few weeks once Antman drops hard like most Marvel films do, and then continue to outperform NWH. It seems very unlikely though..

    That Grace Randolph keeps saying that 'A knock at the Cabin' is going to take most of A2's PLF screens, and that releases on Feb 3rd.

    If true i'd say JW is the realistic target, not TGM.😒

    Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, hw64 said:

     

    The problem is that you're double-counting by adding in predicted Wednesday and Thursday grosses internationally and then adding in an international 3-day weekend which you've worked out based off of the $93m international weekend last week, which isn't a 3-day and which already includes some Wednesday and Thursday grosses in certain markets.

    I'm making predictions off the international weekday and weekend numbers we are given. If there is something wrong with those numbers than that isnt on me.

    And like i said, i have been very close with where i predict A2 will be after the coming weekends, in fact i have often lowballed.

     

    Look i'll put it another way, i predict A2 will be at 2.03+bil after this coming weekend. Ok?.

     

    Yes the changes in China this weekend could hamper that a bit, but at the same time its still going to gross something (5mil is my guess).

     

    Thats me done now.

    Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, Agafin said:

    Did we get 3 day weekend numbers for this past weekend?

    What i mean is we still get the wekend number, regradless whether it will be 3day, 4day, or 5 day in France. we still got the 93mil number, we still got last weeks number, and the week befores etc, which is what i'm using to work out predictions (which i have beenvery close with so far, lowballng every week actually).

    Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, hw64 said:

     

    International weekends are never 3-days, they're a sum of all the "weekends" in overseas territories, which is Fri-Sun in a lot of markets but Thu-Sun and Wed-Sun in some others. The actual international 3-day last week was probably around $80-$82m.

    Oh i already know that but we still get international weekday numbers and 3 day weekend numbers, regardles of the 'ins and outs' of how its worked out.

    Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, hw64 said:

     

    You realize that $93m isn't a 3-day, right?

    Is it not?. They included Monday in the number?, a bit weird as international wasnt a 4 day weekend.

    Well ok knock 8 or 9 mill off what i said.

    And besides China isnt going to gross zero anyway, it will probably be around 5mil if i had to guess.

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