BOT User Tracking 10/23-25

[Wrath]

Well, that was a trainwreck of a weekend, though our predicts were ok. We called Last Witch Hunter really nicely, we were never the worst prediction for a movie, and *everyone* wiffed badly on Jem, Kasbah, and Jobs. 

 

Jem and the Holograms

Prediction: 5.5M +/- 2.81M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 1.4M (off by 4.1M, so 1.45 stndev)

Sometimes the best defense is some uncertainty, and posting the largest stndev so far saved us from a truly disastrous predict. Plus, we were still better than average overall. Outrageous! had the best predict at 2.2M in their first weekend of predicting. Nice job.

 

Last Witch Hunter

Prediction: 11.7M +/- 2.34M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 10.8M (off by 0.8M, so 0.39 stndev)

Very solid predict, by far the best. Best predict by Blankments at 10.8M.

 

Paranormal Activity 4

Prediction: 11.9M +/- 2.93M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 8.1M (off by 3.8M, so 1.28 stndev)

We were almost the worst predict, but not quite, so that's a moral victory. Plus, all the website predicts were bunched into a tight grouping so we weren't very far away from the best predict. Best predict was WrathofHan at 8M.

 

Rock the Kasbah

Prediction: 5.1M +/- 1.69M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 1.5M (off by 3.6M, so 2.1 stndev)

Well, that was terrible. Bill Murray should be ashamed at his track record almost tricking me into seeing this despite dire reviews. Fortunately, I was saved at the last minute by needing to kill a late-season hornets' nest. Never before have I been so grateful for flying, stinging insects. Outrageous! won this one, too at 1.7M.

 

Steve Jobs

Prediction: 21.8M +/- 5.7M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 7.1M (off by 14.7M, so 2.91 stndev)

BO.com's predict of 23.7M on this might have been the single worst miss by any website on any film. Heck, I thought I was being conservative predicting under $20M, and I wasn't even in the ballpark. Just goes to show that its always good to mix it up a little and not stick too closely to the beaten path. That having been said, by far the most conservative predict was Deadline at $11.5M and even they weren't really very close. Sometimes you just get hit by a bus. Our best predict was lilmac at $12M which wasn't really very close at all, but still won comfortably.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Wrath