Chrestomanci

Anyway, some more boxoffice.com numbers:SH2 - $4,745,049 (+11%)TGWTDT - $3,310,977 (-35% from preview inflated Wednesday, but only about -4.4% from real Wednesday)Hugo - $612,000 (+21%) (another Paramount estimate)BD1 - $609,359 (+18%)Sitter - $582,656 (+5%)Descendants - $416,721 (+8%)Young Adult - $375,000 (+7%) (Paramount again)PiB - $153,000 (+20%) (ditto)

I'd have said that it started earlier than that. The whole reason that I made that post was that the first post and thread title had already been changed to reflect the Thursday numbers instead of the Wednesday ones and I'm pretty sure people were already talking about them. But I guess this works.

boxoffice.com has a number for MI4 now, but it's got enough zeros that it's either extremely unusual or still an estimate: $6,420,000.ETA:Must still be an estimate. Their number for Tintin is $2,430,000. I guess we won't get actuals for the Paramount movies until next week.

Hollywood Reporter estimates:MI4 - $6.4MSH2 - $4.8MAlvin 3 - $4.0MTGWTDT - $3.3MTintin - $2.5META:Actuals now starting to come in on boxoffice.com, beginning with Fox again.Alvin 3 - $3,967,619 (+13%)

Personally, I think the Thursday estimate for TGWTDT is about what should have been expected, given yesterday's results. It's true that both openers increased on Thursday in 2005, but that was six years ago, when front-loading was much less of a factor. Add to that some further front-loading due to fans of the book rushing out and you've got to expect a bit of a drop.So I don't think it's a particularly bad number in relation to the (non-preview inflated) Wednesday number, but neither of those numbers could be considered especially good in general.ETA: Yay, hundredth post!

I think, since the first post and title of this thread are both likely to change again, it would be better to have Nikki's Thursday estimates actually in a post. That way, should anyone read this thread at a later date, they can at least know what numbers people are responding to. So here they are: Nikki's Thursday estimates MI4 - $6.2M SH2 - $4.8M Alvin 3 - $3.9M TGWTDT - $3.1M Tintin - $2.4M Incidentally, is there a reason Thursday doesn't have its own thread? EDIT: The above was from when this thread was part of the thread for the daily numbers of Wednesday, December 21, 2011. Please see that thread for the beginnings of any conversations that may have continued here. Actuals from BOM (Top 17 only, see BOM for full data) TD YD Title Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol Par. $6,420,000 -28% +970% 3,448 $1,862 $32,435,000 7 2 3 Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows WB $4,745,049 +11% - 3,703 $1,281 $58,753,622 7 3 4 Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked Fox $3,967,619 +13% - 3,726 $1,065 $36,940,187 7 4 2 The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) Sony $3,310,977 -35% - 2,914 $1,136 $8,376,473 2 5 5 The Adventures of Tintin Par. $2,430,000 +6% - 3,087 $787 $8,007,000 2 6 6 New Year's Eve WB (NL) $1,165,185 +10% +10% 3,051 $382 $29,337,195 14 7 7 Arthur Christmas Sony $855,863 +28% +92% 2,105 $407 $41,468,002 30 8 8 The Muppets BV $708,379 +21% +66% 1,859 $381 $73,556,525 30 9 11 Hugo Par. $612,000 +21% +18% 1,487 $412 $41,627,000 30 10 10 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 Sum. $609,359 +18% -10% 1,822 $334 $268,801,901 35 11 9 The Sitter Fox $582,656 +5% -23% 2,473 $236 $20,488,202 14 12 12 The Descendants FoxS $416,721 +8% -3% 835 $499 $30,291,552 37 13 13 Young Adult Par. $375,000 +7% +1,105% 986 $380 $5,409,000 14 14 15 Puss in Boots P/DW $153,000 +20% +33% 757 $202 $143,251,000 56 15 14 Happy Feet Two WB $131,119 -2% -51% 760 $173 $59,632,642 35 16 16 Jack and Jill Sony $108,279 +15% -44% 677 $160 $71,059,708 42 17 17 My Week with Marilyn Wein. $79,231 +7% -17% 244 $325 $6,419,196 30

Yes and no. The original estimates, at least from Nikki, were for $8M including Tuesday. The increase to $8.9M is still a big jump from that (over 10% overall and around 15% for the Wednesday portion) and has nothing to do with the inclusion of Tuesday.

I doubt it can get that high from an opening day of $3.5M. Fun with Dick and Jane, a somewhat more Christmassy feeling movie, only managed $14.4M for the 3-day weekend from a $3.76M opening day. I'm also worried about frontloading due to the popularity of the books.

I guess so. I thought my expectations were pretty modest, though -- I was thinking 17 or 18 for the 3-day weekend and it doesn't look like it will even hit that.

No, unfortunately it looks like the $5.1M does include the Tuesday previews, here's a blurb from boxoffice.com:

Oh dear. All the indications had been that the $5.1M on Wednesday was in addition to the $1.6M from Tuesday, which would have been pretty good. But if the $5.1M actually includes the $1.6M from Tuesday, that's not so good.

It certainly is. Subtracting off $2M, it's still nearly 41% ahead of KK on the Wednesday before Christmas in 2005. If it could maintain that percentage for the rest of its run, it would end up making a further $190M+, for a total of over $215M. Even figuring that MI4 is more frontloaded than King Kong was from the same date (and it probably is a bit, but not as much as one might think, since the IMAX release over the weekend should help mitigate it), a total of $200M or higher looks like a definite possibility.

And now Hugo is up, which was probably the last movie missing that anyone really cares about. Hugo made $507,511, a 30% drop from Tuesday, taking it just out of the top 10. I'd guess that theater loss (if boxoffice.com is right, it lost over 1000 theaters from Tuesday) and Tintin hit it hard, even though Tintin itself underperformed.ETA: BOM is up.

Actuals for Paramount finally coming in on boxoffice.com. First up, Tintin - $2,302,020.Now they've added MI4 - $8,921,045.

My guess is the absence of Paramount, which will have at least two and possibly three of the top 10 movies.

What in the world is taking Paramount so long?!?

Hmm, didn't realize that I still hadn't seen an actual or even an estimate for Hugo. Have you seen one? Or are you judging by the fact that it wasn't among the top 10 estimates on ERC? I'm wondering whether it really did die or whether Paramount just didn't bother to estimate it since they had two openers to worry about.

boxoffice.com now has the actual for TGWTDT: $5,065,496. Just waiting on MI4 now . . .ETA:AC - $668K (-17%)J&J - $95K (-46%)

I mostly agree (though given how Tintin is doing, I'm not sure how strongly it actually appeals to anyone). I think our definitions of direct competition must be slightly different. I consider a movie direct competition to another movie if it is meant to appeal to the entire audience of that second movie. So having a wider audience doesn't, in my view, prevent a movie from being direct competition for a movie with a narrower audience, i.e., I consider Tintin almost direct competition for Avin 3 (almost because I think its appeal to very little kids will be lower), but Alvin is not, IMO, direct competition for Tintin.

I think Tintin is more or less direct competition, even if it isn't doing great numbers. And while there are no great comparisons from 2005, Alvin 3 held nearly as well as The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, despite a significantly larger Tuesday increase.

Some more boxoffice.com actuals:BD1 - $515K (-26%)Immortals - $44K (-64%)HF2 - $133K (-47%)MWWM - $74K (-19%)Tower Heist - $44K (-58%)

I agree. Between that huge Tuesday increase and the opening of Tintin (even if it didn't open big, it was still direct competition), I was definitely expecting some decrease at least.

A few more boxoffice.com actuals:SH2 - $4.28M (-17%)NYE - $1.06M (-18%)Muppets - $586K (-14%)TTSS - $52K (-9%)

The 8.5 ERC number? I'm pretty sure it must.

And actuals are now coming in on boxoffice.com, starting with the Fox releases:Alvin 3 - $3.51M (+0.1%)Sitter - $554K (-23%)Descendants - $385K (-14%)