Hilderic
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Posts posted by Hilderic
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7 hours ago, juni78ukr said:
https://deadline.com/2021/11/disney-hong-kong-simpsons-missing-1234881312/
Just typical example. An episode of The Simpsons during which the family visits Tiananmen Square is missing from Disney+’s Hong Kong platform. Episode 12 of season 16 was found today to be absent from the streamer’s catalogue in the nation, having launched in Hong Kong earlier this month.
The episode features the family going to China to try to adopt a baby. At one point, they visit Tiananmen Square, which was the site of a deadly crackdown in 1989 against democracy protestors. A satirical sign in the cartoon square reads “On this site, in 1989, nothing happened.”
No, this is not a satirical sign, This is blatant insult of chinese government and chinese people (once again at least of the major part of population). Of course they knew about this. Of course they didn care what Chinese think. Arrogant and stupid. And of course events on Tiananmen Square are much more complicated than western propaganda is trying to tell.
You say it like it's a bad thing.
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4 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
Belfast (Foc) 1,128 (+544) theaters, Wed $170K (+36%),Thurs $150K/ Fri $380K/Sat $350K/Sun $240k/PTA $860/3-day $970K (+3%), 5-day: $1.3M/Total $4.99M/Wk 3
New York continues to be the top market for the Kenneth Branagh-directed black and white movie, seeing 11% of the weekend followed by Boston (5%), Philly (4.7%), LA (4.5%), and Chicago (4%). Canada is drove close to 10% of the weekend’s gross with Toronto accounting for 2.2% of the weekend. Finale domestic endgame here is looking like $7M.The French Dispatch (Sea) 450 (-355) theaters, Wed $122K,Thurs $109K/ Fri $235K/Sat $250K/Sun $137k/PTA $1,38K/3-day $622K (-38%), 5-day: $853K /Total $14.4M/Wk 6
The Wes Anderson directed movie which dynamited the specialty box office with $1.3M opening at 52 locations will likely end its stateside run at $16M.I was hoping for more than $7M total for Belfast.
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2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:
Because a terrible film called Diana came out a couple of years ago
8 years, actually. Time flies.
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8 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
Belfast opening PTA is so much better than Spencer although Spencer look more accessible by marketing. Spencer debut scale was a bit too wide and too fast.
And despite solid numbers, TFD will likely be the lowest grossing Anderson's film since Fantastic Mr.Fox, signaling the tepid recovery of indie markets. Just realised Moonrise Kingdom did 45m in 2012, what a crazy gross for an indie film
Belfast is a crowd-pleaser (it won the People's Choice Award at TIFF). Spencer, despite the mainstream subject matter, is an art house oddity.
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4 hours ago, LPLC said:
Excuse me for the question, but I have a feeling that Queen Elisabth 2 and royalty in general is less and less popular in the UK and elsewhere in the world, is that true ? Maybe royalty is just a little "outdated" and it's not our time anymore.
Not really. The Queen's popularity in the UK is consistently above 70%, with recent peaks above 80%. Support for the monarchy as an institution is also stable, according to the latest Ipsos MORI poll (they've been tracking it since 1993 and there's been little change over nearly 30 years: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/monarchyroyal-family-trends-monarchy-v-republic-1993-2016). Support for a republic is at only 18% in the most recent poll I can find (Redfield), exactly the same as in 1993. Unsurprisingly, support for a republic is highest among the very young, as has always been the case: many of them will probably change their mind as they grow older, just as many of their parents, grandparents and great-grandparents did.
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As promised:
Update:
In its tenth weekend, Aladdin grossed $3,039,648. The following is the only film released in May or June (since 2001 and excluding re-expansions) that grossed between $2.5M and $3.5M in its tenth weekend, and how much it added from that point onwards:
The Hangover ($3,369,178): $15,343,172
If Aladdin follows The Hangover, its final gross will be $361,523,406.
Multiplier:
The Hangover: 4.67
If Aladdin follows The Hangover, its final gross will be $360,383,291.
Including films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $2M and $4M:
Finding Nemo ($3,860,462): $19,694,218
Shrek 2 ($2,316,663): $11,784,953
Incredibles 2 ($2,302,020): $14,480,876
Wonder Woman ($2,286,334): $13,130,995
Shrek ($2,275,232): $15,742,819
Spider-Man ($2,204,636): $3,648,018
Marvel's The Avengers ($2,168,124): $12,230,026Worst-case scenario (if Aladdin follows Spider-Man) $349,828,252. Again, this is all but impossible.
Worst-case scenario excluding Spider-Man (if Aladdin follows Shrek 2): $357,965,187.
Best-case scenario (if Aladdin follows Finding Nemo): $365,874,452. Finding Nemo is still well ahead, so this remains a tall order. Not wholly impossible, however.
Best-case scenario excluding Finding Nemo (if Aladdin follows Shrek): $361,923,053.Multipliers:
Finding Nemo: 5.10
Shrek 2: 5.09
Incredibles 2: 6.29
Wonder Woman: 5.74
Shrek: 6.92
Spider-Man: 1.65
Marvel's The Avengers: 5.64Worst-case scenario excluding Spider-Man (if Aladdin follows Shrek 2): $361,643,039.
Best-case scenario (if Aladdin follows Shrek): $367,212,211.Overall range: $357M to $367M.
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I am a week late with this, but I am posting it anyway. I shall add weekend 10 soon.
Update:
In its ninth weekend, Aladdin grossed $4,085,424. These are all the films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $3.5M and $4.5M in their ninth weekend, and how much they added from that point onwards:
Marvel's The Avengers ($4,421,671): $16,853,166
Finding Nemo ($4,391,650): $26,595,080
Shrek ($3,603,843): $20,384,436If Aladdin follows Marvel's The Avengers, its final gross will be $357,179,304.
If Aladdin follows Finding Nemo, its final gross will be $366,921,218.
If Aladdin follows Shrek, its final gross will be $360,710,574.Multipliers:
Marvel's The Avengers: 3.81
Finding Nemo: 6.05
Shrek: 5.66If Aladdin follows Marvel's The Avengers, its final gross will be $355,897,701.
If Aladdin follows Finding Nemo, its final gross will be $365,066,765.If Aladdin follows Shrek, its final gross will be $363,434,543.
Range: $355M to $366M. It should be noted, however, that Finding Nemo had better weekdays and, looking ahead at its weekend 10 drop, it appears that its late run may be out of reach for Aladdin.
Including films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $3M and $5M:
Incredibles 2 ($3,429,388): $18,809,756
Wonder Woman ($3,340,667): $17,319,035
Shrek 2 ($3,230,786): $16,214,601
Spider-Man ($3,130,214): $7,831,904Worst-case scenario (if Aladdin follows Spider-Man): $348,158,042. I think it is fair to exclude this, as Aladdin will be there by the end of this week.
Worst-case scenario excluding Spider-Man (if Aladdin follows Shrek 2): $356,540,739.
Best-case scenario (if Aladdin follows Incredibles 2): $359,135,894.Multipliers:
Incredibles 2: 5.48
Wonder Woman: 5.18
Shrek 2: 5.02
Spider-Man: 2.50Worst-case scenario excluding Spider-Man (if Aladdin follows Shrek 2): $360,829,978.
Best-case scenario (if Aladdin follows Incredibles 2): $362,734,167.Range: $356M to $362M.
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It seems that Aladdin (unusually for a Disney release) was hurt rather than helped by the arrival of a new Disney film. Of course, Toy Story 4 (perhaps also Avengers: Endgame) may be the reason why this happened, but Disney has been able to "help" multiple films simultaneously before. I wonder whether the "Disney effect" might materialise next week, as it did with Beauty and the Beast (which dropped -25.5% when Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opened, but then -5.5% a week later).
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Update:
In its eighth weekend, Aladdin grossed $6,173,124. These are all the films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $5.6M an d $6.6M in their eighth weekend, and how much they added from that point onwards:
The Hangover ($6,461,370): $30,248,737
Shrek ($6,007,027): $27,104,852If Aladdin follows The Hangover, its final gross will be $362,038,581.
If Aladdin follows Shrek, its final gross will be $358,894,696.For those who prefer multipliers, these are the multipliers of the above films (gross added after eighth weekend in relation to eighth weekend gross):
The Hangover: 4.68
Shrek: 4.51If Aladdin follows The Hangover, its final gross will be $360,680,064.
If Aladdin follows Shrek, its final gross will be $359,630,633.All in all, a fairly narrow range: $358M to $362M.
As the above sample is so small, it may be of interest to add the films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $4.6M an d $7.6M in their eighth weekend, and how much they added from that point onwards (though the comparison is inevitably going to be less precise):
Finding Nemo ($7,275,723): $35,919,258
Marvel's The Avengers ($7,177,661): $24,932,468
Incredibles 2 ($4,980,232): $25,469,222
Wonder Woman ($4,608,028): $23,552,101On the basis of the above, the worst-case scenario is $355,341,945 (if Aladdin follows Wonder Woman) and the best-case scenario is $367,709,102 (if it follows Finding Nemo).
Multipliers:
Finding Nemo: 4.94
Marvel's The Avengers: 3.47
Incredibles 2: 5.11
Wonder Woman: 5.11On the basis of the above, the worst-case scenario is $353,210,584 (if Aladdin follows Marvel's The Avengers) and the best-case scenario is $363,334,507 (if it follows Incredibles 2 and Wonder Woman).
All in all, a broader range: $353M to $367M.
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Aladdin has now passed Alice in Wonderland.
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Some data that may be of interest to determine Aladdin's final gross:
In its sixth weekend, Aladdin grossed $10,114,122. These are all the films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $9.5M and $10.5M in their sixth weekend, and how much they added from that point onwards:
Shrek ($10,405,731): $52,432,994
Spider-Man ($10,311,062): $33,278,192
Shrek 2 ($10,216,452): $44,443,712
The Hangover ($9,933,238): $54,877,597
Wonder Woman ($9,822,105): $44,090,112On the basis of the above, the worst-case scenario is $339,910,260 (if Aladdin follows Spider-Man) and the best-case scenario is $361,509,665 (if it follows The Hangover). If The Hangover is to be excluded because of the different genre and audience, then the best-case scenario is $359,065,062 (if Aladdin follows Shrek).
In its seventh weekend, Aladdin grossed $7,515,649. These are all the films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $7M and $8M in their seventh weekend, and how much they added from that point onwards:
Shrek ($7,707,203): $39,522,882
Spider-Man ($7,515,984): $21,168,706
Incredibles 2 ($7,257,113): $35,700,983
Jurassic World ($7,181,175): $28,186,675On the basis of the above, the worst-case scenario is $341,873,971 (again, if Aladdin follows Spider-Man) and the best-case scenario is $360,228,147 (again, if it follows Shrek).
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Aladdin officially becomes the highest grossing Memorial Day release of all time (unadjusted, of course), beating Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.
Fun fact: Aladdin's seventh weekend ($7,515,649) is the highest seventh weekend ever for a Memorial Day release (again, unadjusted). This particular record had so far been held (for 36 years!) by Return of the Jedi ($7,337,926).
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Halle and her sister released this mixtape in 2017: https://genius.com/albums/Chloe-x-halle/The-two-of-us
I guess it was destiny.
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After having some fun with the "adjuster" function on BOM, I have realised that, among Memorial Day weekend openers, Aladdin's run is closest to those of... the first two Mission: Impossible films. I know, I know, different genres and different times, but, leaving aside the first two days of the M: I films (they both opened on a Wednesday), I think the comparison is worth posting:
Weekends:
Aladdin M: I (adjusted) M: I II (adjusted)
1 (3 days) $91,500,929 $92,621,200 $96,695,000
1 (4 days) $116,805,962 $115,808,300 $118,377,400
2 $42,840,544 $44,090,600 $45,160,400
3 $24,680,968 $29,888,300 $28,804,200
4 $17,309,154 $17,549,200 $18,992,900
5 $13,244,015 $13,134,900 $12,684,900Full weeks:
Aladdin M: I (adjusted) M: I II (adjusted)
1 $142,697,174 $137,454,500 $138,244,200
2 $65,188,752 $62,451,200 $62,072,800
3 $38,848,388 $41,335,000 $40,757,100
4 $28,575,814 $27,216,300 $26,883,100
5 $21,207,818 $19,654,100 $18,175,600After the end of week 5, M: I added another $44M (adjusted). If Aladdin follows it, its final gross will be $340M.
After the end of week 5, M: I II added another $39M (adjusted). If Aladdin follows it, its final gross will be $335M.
As for family films released in late May (but not on Memorial Day weekend), the non-adjusted runs of Shrek and Up (starting from weekend 2) are worth noting:
Weekends:
Aladdin Shrek Up
2 $42,840,544 $42,481,425 $44,138,266
3 $24,680,968 $28,172,869 $30,762,280
4 $17,309,154 $16,520,052 $23,492,677
5 $13,244,015 $13,181,576 $13,061,737Full weeks:
Aladdin Shrek Up
2 $65,188,752 $63,650,772 $63,591,274
3 $38,848,388 $39,360,824 $46,112,546
4 $28,575,814 $24,797,052 $34,396,562
5 $21,207,818 $20,479,858 $21,122,488After the end of week 5, Shrek added another $63M (!). However, it dropped only 21.1% in weekend 6, 25.9% in weekend 7 and 22.1% in weekend 8. The likelihood of Aladdin's mirroring its late run is probably very, very low, but, if it does, its final gross will be $359M.
After the end of week 5, Up added another $35M. It was hit hard by Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs in weekend 6, dropping over 50%. Aladdin is likely to hold better (especially this weekend, as it faces no direct competition), but, if it follows Up, its final gross will be $331M.
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9 hours ago, DAJK said:
With Aladdin grossing say 320 DOM and people talking about crazy OS runs incoming, is 1B WW possible? I would say no, that I don't think 680M is achievable, but I'm not sure what numbers we're actually looking at. I'm still hoping for 500-550 range, but are people thinking it can actually go higher?
I think the floor is higher than $500M OS at this point. It was at $375M as of last Sunday, after a $70.7M third weekend OS (OW in Japan, where it is doing very well). $680M is still $305M away though, which feels like a tall order.
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Just wanted to let you know that we are still discussing this, don't want you to think I ignored it.
Thank you very much, and sorry for the trouble.
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I really hope Knightley manages to get a nomination at least. No one can deny that she's tried hard to get a second one (Atonement, The Duchess, Never Let Me Go, A Dangerous Method, Anna Karenina), albeit unsuccesfully. I admire her for not selling out.I'd say so. I'm not too caught up with the race but the field does look quite empty. In fact, I think she may have a better shot of winning than Benny on the basis that actor is much stronger than supporting actress.
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Has this rule been abolished? I see that shorter movies have been added recently (Un Chien Andalou, La Jetée etc.). So can we now request short films and feature films shorter than 75 minutes?- Must be at least 75 minutes long.
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Sony Classics recently bought the film:http://variety.com/2014/film/news/julianne-moores-still-alice-sony-classics-1201304171/Does Moore's film has a distributor yet? I think she's the frontrunner, but if she doesn't have the right distributor, she still can be beatable.
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The Imitation Game wins the People's Choice Award at TIFF:http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/sep/14/toronto-2014-the-imitation-game-benedict-cumberbatch-win-award
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Tatum is going lead.It's weird that currently, I believe the frontrunner for this category is Tatum
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Real-life characters are clearly very popular and 3/5 is far from uncommon. 4/5, however, seems like a lot, although it has happened already (2004).They love even more a biopic performance... I'm begining to hate those kind of roles. What if we see 4/5 biopic performances being nommed this year? It could very well happen.
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TMNT is now ahead of HTTYD2.
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Felicity Jones is getting great reviews (which mention she's lead) for The Theory of Everything, together with Redmayne and the movie as a whole. She may have a chance, especially with what looks like a very empty category.
Weekend Thread (12/10-12) | WSS 800K Previews
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Hilderic
I guess I've made my peace with the DOM OW numbers for WSS, as they are at least within the $10-15M range suggested by tracking (though the very low end). On the other hand, OS numbers are just plain horrific. Yes, I agree that Sondheim isn't a household name here in Europe (I'd never heard of Into the Woods until they announced a film adaptation), but West Side Story is a very famous musical and Spielberg a very famous director.
These are the markets left (per IMDb): Croatia, Spain, Hong Kong, Italy, Australia, Iceland, Singapore.