Eric the Fall Guy
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Posts posted by Eric the Fall Guy
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Quorum Updates
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-18: 64.35%
IF T-25: 45.08%
Despicable Me 4 T-72: 57.66%
White Bird: A Wonder Story T-165: 15.33%
Challengers T-4: 28.04% Awareness
Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M
Unsung Hero T-4: 16.27% Awareness
Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Tarot T-4: 28.04% Awareness
Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M
The Fall Guy T-11: 46.19% Awareness
Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 5% chance of 80M, 2% chance of 90M
Tentpole Awareness: N/A
Tarot T-11: 29.84% Awareness
Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M
Horizon: An America Saga Part 1 T-67: 19.66%
T-60 Awareness: 30% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M
Medium Awareness: 33% chance of 10M
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5 minutes ago, JimmyB said:
Its never as simple as the general audience just doesnt care about going to the theater anymore unless its some IP they know....Dune, Panda, GB and Gxk.
No, it is that simple lol
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@TMP Oh yeah, Chris Pratt's another one that kinda fits the whole "superhero guy finding later success" thing. Because like yeah obviously almost all his big hits are big IPs, but he was pushed just as hard as the dinosaurs when the first Jurassic World came out and the Mario/Garfield ads have focused on selling his name like it's a Katzenberg-era Dreamworks movie. And if we include streaming stuff, he's had a lot of hits for Amazon sold solely on his presence. Maybe if that Electric State movie gets Gray Man-style viewers, that will solve the answer, I dunno.
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1 hour ago, TMP said:
edit: actually, add free guy to the list of superhero actor hits too; albeit another one which also benefitted to the “slingshot”
Ryan Reynolds is a fascinating one, because he has arguably been the only actor to use that superhero movie slingshot and have it result in success multiple times. Crazy too for a guy that was once box office poison. Though I guess we'll see if Tom Holland can do that if he ever decides to make another movie again.
Hitman's Bodyguard still rates as one of the highest-grossing non-IP comedies in the last few years (think you can count on only one hand the non-IP comedies that outgrossed it domestically and worldwide). Detective Pikachu was also sold just as much on Ryan Reynolds as did the Pokemon brand, even though that is a little iffy, and he has some of the highest-viewed Netflix original movies ever (yes, those count).
Like IF is probably going to get to like 120M+ or something just on his presence and savvy marketing skills. In 2012, with Reynolds' then draw power, that would have been lucky to get to half of that.
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Moderation
We're ending the umpteenth "Marvel is/isn't dead" argument early. Everybody knows neither side will listen and that the conversation will move around in circles. Why do this all over again?
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And I guess if we want to go into numbers, holds are largely pretty solid. Civil War could drop to around 55%, maybe even less, depending on what the Saturday number is, which is quite impressive. KFP4 held worse than Home the same weekend, but the latter had Mother's Day to soften its hold, so it's still fine. Still on track for 195M or so.
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Not to be mean, but the numbers have been up for a while. It’s fine to get your doom and gloom out, but it’s also good to actually discuss the numbers we have and share them.
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← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Title Distributor Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per
TheaterTotal
GrossDays In
Release1 N Abigail Universal $4,000,000 3,384 $1,182 $4,000,000 1 - (1) Civil War A24 $3,254,490 +99% -70% 3,929 $828 $37,011,151 8 - (2) Godzilla x Kong: The New … Warner Bros. $2,330,000 +165% -40% 3,658 $637 $164,491,510 22 - N Spy x Family Code: White Crunchyroll $2,225,000 2,009 $1,108 $2,225,000 1 - (3) Kung Fu Panda 4 Universal $1,110,000 +162% -19% 2,955 $376 $176,492,475 43 - (4) Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sony Pictures $1,035,000 +180% -27% 3,109 $333 $99,549,270 29 - (5) Dune: Part Two Warner Bros. $800,000 +120% -33% 2,014 $397 $274,492,913 50 - (6) Monkey Man Universal $680,000 +90% -46% 2,641 $257 $20,154,790 15 - (7) The First Omen 20th Century… $530,000 +85% -54% 2,430 $218 $16,595,038 15 - (-) Shrek 2 Universal $130,000 +12% -73% 819 $159 $438,830,656 7,276 - (-) Housekeeping for Beginners Focus Features $13,000 +262% -43% 251 $52 $174,600 15 11 $16,107,490 -
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4 hours ago, Flip said:
How does Garfield have a better chance of 100m than Inside Out does at 90m when it has lower awareness and is closer to release date?
Because the Animation/Family pool is very small and very awkward. Because for whatever reason, the only movies that opened above 100M in this pool only had awareness in the 40s upon the T-60 and T-30 mark. I don't know why that is, but I guess that's just what happens when your subcategory pool only has 19 movies. Either way, technically speaking, if we just used these 19 movies, Garfield has the better chance. But in this instance, it's probably better to use the charts that look at every movie. And yeah, at this point in time, Inside Out has a better chance with 45% compared to Garfield at 13%. So yeah, Inside Out's got the better chance. Don't you fret.
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7 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:
Is Challengers going to break Quorum???
Well I mean it's still likely to get to the 30s in Awareness by the time we get to the end. That would make 10M, at the very least, slightly more likely.
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Quorum Updates
Twisters T-92: 46.86%
Never Let Go T-162: 18.67%
Abigail T-1: 38.48% Awareness
Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M
Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-1: 24.61% Awareness
Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M
Challengers T-8: 25.92% Awareness
Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M
Unsung Hero T-8: 17.09% Awareness
Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Furiosa T-36: 30.17% Awareness
T-30 Awareness: 81% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 13% chance of 40M, 10% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 90M
Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M
The Garfield Movie T-36: 47.44% Awareness
T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 96% chance of 20M, 87% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 39% chance of 50M, 35% chance of 60M
Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 100M
Inside Out 2 T-57: 51.44% Awareness
T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 40M, 85% chance of 50M, 69% chance of 60M, 61% chance of 70M, 54% chance of 90M, 46% chance of 100M
Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 90M
The Watchers T-57: 29.33% Awareness
T-60 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M
Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M, 8% chance of 40M
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Moderation
I know where this Melissa Barrera conversation is going. And it’s not worth it. Please move on to something else.
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9 minutes ago, TMP said:
Yeah, but those This is Sparta Youtube poops went hard as a kid
TikTok ain’t got nothing on this. We were born in the right generation
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8 minutes ago, TMP said:
Still insane that he has such a devoted fan base off the back of only having 2 watchable movies, and even then I’m probably being kinder to 300 given that I have childhood nostalgia for it
Yeah don’t watch 300 as an adult. It’s up there as one of the worst movies I’ve ever seen. Vile, nasty-ass movie.
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19 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:
Is horror just having a crappy year? What’s going on?
I mean, there's not many good options available. Night Swim and Imaginary have stinky RT scores and probably would have opened to what they got even during horror's 2016-19 peak. The First Omen was frankly very mismanaged and misadvertised by Disney. They could have given it a SXSW or get good reviews out earlier, but they just kinda let it die, since they can't sell anything that isn't a surefire, ultra-safe bet. Abigail's also had a pretty light marketing campaign with just the one trailer, and nothing else is looking that exciting right now either until Quiet Place.
And well, there's also the issue where 80% of movies that aren't...that term people don't like me saying just bomb now. Hopefully The Watchers and Trap have the juice? Those seem like the only true potential breakouts.
But hey! Silver lining is that Immaculate is already in the top 4 of Neon movies. Might get top 3 and beat out Ferrari. Late Night with the Devil's also in the top 4 for IFC. So we have good victories in the specialty/arthouse horror scene.
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1 hour ago, ViewerAnon said:
They can't say anything else. I'm friends IRL with a few people who work on these movies - they're no-joke-not-exaggerating terrified of the hardcore Sonic fanbase 🤣
Hardcore Sonic fan. Can confirm. Those guys can fuck you up.
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Not a bad track imo
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The second twist will be Lady Raven's actually The Butcher and Hartnett's an accomplice, and it's a commentary on celebrity culture. I think I nailed this.
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Classic Conversation Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Happy for them!