Eric the Marxist
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Posts posted by Eric the Marxist
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Wow, the idea of Pacific Rim 2 beating A Wrinkle in Time is really laughable and weird, Han. I don't think anything so far can top that--
6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:April 13
The New Mutants: No other movie is daring to face this, and it’s for a good reason. The New Mutants represents a new endeavor in the comic book movie craze: horror. Both genres are coming off record-breaking years, and people want new, unique movies. This fits that bill and is releasing on the perfect date. Friday the 13th always leads to big grosses for horror movies, but how will it affect a superhero horror movie? I’m betting a lot! It also helps that the rest of April and May look a bit light on competition (though it will drop a bit in its second weekend and May 4). Don’t be surprised if this comes close to Logan. 70/200 (2.86x)
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TIL my Ignore list has gone up to three pages. Don't know how to react to that.
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9 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:
First of all Miss, I'm a lot older than you and clearly better mannered. You don't address a stranger with such impertinence. But I'll allow it since the moderators here are slack.
You say TLJ had $200M production costs. Please offer a figure for its marketing and distribution costs. As you know those are separate and additional expenses.
In some cases these expenses are double the production costs, especially on globally distributed movies like this one. I've heard TLJ had total costs as high as $800M+. I've also heard that as a rule of thumb movies aim to make three times their production costs in order to break even.
So. Assuming that figure is correct: $800M, TLJ hasn't broken even yet. This of course based upon the studios recouping in this case 65% of the North American gross and far less of the overseas revenues.
Please take your time before you attempt to respond.
Thanks.
Y'know, for a guy who calls himself "TheForceuser," you seem to be ultra-negative about everything TLJ. Why is that?
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Just now, a2knet said:
Industry estimates for the weekend of Jan. 5-7:
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- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,801 theaters (+36) / $10.8M Fri (-39%)/3-day: $35.8M (-29%)/Total:$244.1M/ Wk 3
- Insidious: The Last Key (UNI), 3,116 theaters (0)/ $12.5M Fri/3-day: $25M/ Wk 1
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $7M Fri (-63%)/3-day: $24.5M (-23%)/Total:$573.4M/ Wk 4
- The Greatest Showman (FOX), 3,342 theaters (+26) / $4.1M Fri (-22%) / 3-day: $14.1M (-9%)/Total: $77.2M/Wk 3
- Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 3,458 theaters (-10)/ $3.3M Fri (-50%)/3-day: $10.5M (-37%)/Total: $86.2M/ Wk 3
- Ferdinand (FOX), 3,156 theaters (-181) / $2.3M Fri (-47%) /3-day: $8.9M(-22%)/Total: $71.6M/ Wk 4
- Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,733 theaters (+790)/ $1.8M Fri (+6%) /3-day: $6.6M(+20%)/ Total: $28.6M/ Wk 7
- Molly’s Game (STX) 1,608 theaters (+1,337)/$2.2M Fri (+200%)/3-day:$6.2M (+165%)/Total: $13.5M/ Wk 2
- Coco(DIS), 1,894 theaters (-210) / $1.6 M Fri (-45%)/3-day: $5.7M(-22%)/Total: $192.2M / Wk 7
- All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,123 theaters (+49)/ $1M Fri (-40%)/3-day: $3.6M (-34%)/Total: $20.2M/Wk 2
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The Shape of Water (FSL), 804 theaters (+48) / $789K Fri (-33%) /3-day: $2.7M (-22%)/Total: $21.3M/Wk 6Notables:
The Post (FOX/DW), 36 theaters (+27) / $500K Fri (+192%) /3-day:$1.6M (+182%)/Total: $3.7M/Wk 3
Phantom Thread (FOC), 6 theaters (+2) / $64K Fri (-10%)/3-day:$204K (-6%)/PTA: $34K/Total: $911K/Wk 2
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (SPC), 4 theaters / $6K Fri (-45%)/3-day:$22K (-38%)/PTA: $5,3K/Total: $81K/Wk 2
http://deadline.com/2018/01/insidious-the-last-key-last-jedi-jumanji-weekend-box-office-1202236009/
Those sexy holds.
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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:
Between predicting TLJ would have mixed WOM and a significantly worse multi than RO back on OD, to predicting Jumanji could do NATM numbers several weeks before release, to saying Showman might hit 125m+ last weekend...I must say I'm feeling pretty confident about my bold 2018 predictions right about now.
If Solo makes less than $300M, I'm gonna go Liam Neeson on your ass.
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4 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
I guess we're getting a Jumanji Cinematic Universe.
I'm down with a Jumanji/Zathura/Polar Express team-up movie. The Rock, Dax Shepard, and Tom Hanks together is dynamite casting.
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1 minute ago, a2knet said:
Night at the Museum had a 21.85 MLK 4-day and added 60.3 more to it's run. If that above projection holds and Jumanji follows NATM then will do 283.4 + 3*30 = 373+.
It could beat surprises like Zootopia, IO, F7 (#1 film starring DJ), DP1, TJB, SLOP.
With 373+, this could beat Spider-Man 2.
SONY'S 2nd BIGGEST DOM MOVIE EVER
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1. SWEET BABY JESUS THAT JUMANJI NUMBER. Screw Skyfall, Spider-Man 3's the new threshold to beat.
2. SWEET BABY JESUS THANK YOU FOR THAT WACK STAR WARS PREDICTION. My girl Daisy Ridley doesn't deserve this audience backlash, so going near $25M is A-OK in my book.
3. SWEET BABY JESUS THAT GREATEST SHOWMAN NUMBER. Someone on AwardsWatch mentioned that this is playing out a lot like Frozen (not in total gross obviously, but in terms of legginess and word of mouth), but this is doing even better. It's impressive as hell, and only shows just how amazing musicals can really do BO-wise when all the right elements are in place (Mamma Mia 2 will be the sleeper of the summer season, watch out!)
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8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:
Box office smash.
John Cena: The only man who can defy physics. @CJohn
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1 hour ago, Just Tele said:
Y'all should watch the nice YouTubers. You know, the ones starring in "Mr. Student Body President."
Jeremy Shada's not a YouTuber. You can't fool me old man, I know all your tricks.
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9 minutes ago, That One Guy said:
It's a comedy about parents who try to cockblock their kids on prom night
The poster kills me every time.
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21 minutes ago, That One Guy said:
also Journey to the Center of the Earth is a solid film
Fraser or Rock?
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11 minutes ago, That One Guy said:
watching George of the Jungle tonight
Oh, I didn't know you swung that way. Well, it's good you felt confident about coming out with us.
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WIN #7
HIDDEN FIGURES
"Here at NASA, we all pee the same color."
Release Date: December 25, 2016 Limited, January 6 Wide
Director: Theodore Melfi
Cast: Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae, Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Jim Parsons
B.O. Gross: $169.4M DOM, $235.7M WW
When the film was first announced, it was originally only slated for a January 2017 release. But after the first test screenings and initial trailer hit, Fox saw massive potential in the feature, and went all out on its marketing campaign, with a Pharell Williams concert at TIFF, and the film moving up to a limited release on Christmas Day, making the film eligible for the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards. Its limited run was impressive, with a PTA at $20.6K and $34.3K on its first two weekends, but what really made the film soar was its wide release. Once the film opened on the first weekend of January, the film managed to beat Rogue One and gross $22.8 million in its first three days in wide release.
It’s a solid gross for sure, but what made it so impressive were its holds. On MLK weekend, the film dropped only 8.5% on the three-day weekend, and gained 21% on the four-day weekend. But that’s just a holiday weekend. The following weekends were when things got crazy. Drops went to 25%, then 11%, followed by 27%, 21%, 10%, 20%, 34%, 27%, and it only dropped to 47% afterwards, because of a theater drop and Beauty and the Beast’s opening weekend hogging up all of the money. Afterwards, the drops were still relatively impressive, and showed no signs of the film slowing down or losing interest among audiences.
There are a lot of reasons as to why these holds were so strong, but the main reason comes down to how much of an appealing crowdpleaser the film truly was. Its inspirational, feel-good story of black women facing the odds and saving the day is empowering and inspiring, and having such powerful representation struck a chord with millions of people from all races and backgrounds. At the time, and throughout its run, as American started to completely fall apart, quality escapist works that empowered the oppressed was just what the doctor ordered, and this film succeeded in making well-rounded and easily rootable minority characters at a time when they were needed the most. Add in some dynamic performances, powerful sequences, and a Best Picture nominee, and word of mouth spread like wildfire, and with a PG rating, it allowed even more demographics, specifically kids and families, to see the feature, only further making it into a four-quad event piece.
Being one of the leggiest hits of the year, as well as offering an inspirational piece of filmmaking, Hidden Figures was the biggest highlight of the winter and one of the best box office stories of the year.
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FAIL #7
BLADE RUNNER 2049
"Sometimes to love someone, you got to be a stranger."
Release Date: October 6
Director: Denis Villeneuve
Cast: Ryan Gosling, Harrison Ford, Ana de Armas, Sylvia Hoeks, Robin Wright, Mackenzie Davis, Carla Juri, Lennie James, Dave Bautista, Jared Leto
B.O. Gross: $91.7M DOM, $258.7M WW
I'm sorry. I had to do it. I didn’t want to do it, really, but I had to. As much as we may all love this movie, it’s still in the end a flop.
When the first Blade Runner was released, it was not the critical darling it would later become. It underperformed at the box office and recieved a polarized response from critics and audiences alike. But as time had gone on, the film would garner more appreciation and soon became a cult smash and considered one of the greatest sci-fi films of all time, being an inspiration for dozens of other sci-fi works.
35 years later, the film was given a brand new sequel, with a lot of clout behind it. For one, it had Denis Villenueve as director, fresh off of hit films like Sicario and Arrival. It also promised the return of Harrison Ford reprising his previous role as Deckard alongside the hot young rising star Ryan Gosling. It also had a massive marketing campaign behind it, with the first promotional materials arriving in December 2016, as well as three short films that served as prequels to 2049. And with a gargantuan budget ranging from $150 to $185 million, otherworldly visuals, as well as a runtime of 2.5 hours, it was marketed as an epic event that you had to see on the big screen, a tactic WB had already used for Dunkirk to great success. And of course, there was the critical reception, which was unbelievable, as many proclaimed the film was just as good, if not better than its 1982 predecessor. The tracking estimated the film would have a weekend somewhere in the $45 million range, and everything seemed to be going swimmingly and on track. Even if it wouldn’t be a massive success, it would still generate at least Mad Max: Fury Road levels of box office.
Well, when the opening day numbers were revealed to only be $12.6 million it was a serious disappointment, and the opening weekend was even worse, as it only earned $32.8 million in its opening weekend. It earned okay enough legs, but its domestic total was only $90 million, with a $258.7 million worldwide total. Experts say that the film was supposed to make more than $400 million to break even, and it’s rumored production studio Alcon will lose $80 million on the project.
How did this happen? How did a film that had everything going right turn out so very wrong? While there are a lot of reasons as to why, I think the main issue comes down to that general audiences don’t care about Blade Runner. Like or dislike it, the film is still just a cult classic. Sure, people might know the name of the movie, but how many people actually saw it? How many actually like it? How many actually like it enough they were willing to see the sequel? Simply put, it’s a film that was never that popular, with a sequel that was positioned as a tentpole release. Then you add on a gigantic runtime that limited the amount of shows it could play, as well as a lack of OS appeal, and it simply bombed.
But at the end, does it matter if the movie was a hit or not? We still got one of the best movies of the year, we got something that is sure to influence dozens of future filmmakers. And in the end, isn’t having a great movie all that matters?
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Like I said before, Molly's should have stayed in its old Thanksgiving slot.
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5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Runtimes without credits and trailer attachments for next week:
The Post: 1:49. Attachments include at least Red Sparrow
Paddington: 1:40. Attachments unknown (none?).
The Commuter: 1:39. Attachments are Acrimony and Winchester (new trailer).
Proud Mary: 1:24. Attachments unknown.
For fun, and because I'm really weird, I'll be doing some predictions for the other studio attachments
The Post: Probably either Maze Runner or Love, Simon along with Red Sparrow
Paddington 2: Teen Titans Go! (Trailer's already rated) and Smallfoot
Proud Mary: Slenderman and Sicario 2 (Maybe also Equalizer 2?)
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On 1/1/2018 at 8:16 PM, filmlover said:
Well damn. Lil' Timmy Tim is really coming for that Oscar that he should be winning this year.
He and Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased sounds really promising as well) have to be the most promising under 25 male actors to come along in eons.
I will cry tears of joy if both of my boyfriends win the Oscar next year.
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41 minutes ago, filmlover said:
PGA noms:
The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Molly's Game
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman
Last year's PGA Awards had all the 89th Oscar nominees, along with Deadpool. It would be funny if history repeated itself, and everything minus Wonder Woman was nominated, though that seems pretty unlikely.
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THIS WINTER BREAK CAN'T END SOON ENOUGH I NEED THIS IN MY LIFE
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5 minutes ago, baumer said:
But horror isn't concerned about Oscar glory. They are made really inexpensively and turn a profit for the studio. The Insidious films have always been really inexpensive. Doubt it changed this time around....EDIT...10 mill budget...so that's good for a sequel.
I think he was trying to make a joke about the One Missed Call remake and how awful it was.
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Insidious opened to a strong preview number, on the way to a potential $20M OW, and we're still talking about Star Wars, even though there hasn't been any numbers yet for its weekend? You guys are trash, you know that?
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2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
March 30
Acrimony: This is the first non-Madea movie Tyler Perry has made since For Colored Girls back in 2010, which opened to 19.5M and had a sub-2x multi. Acrimony is headlined by Taraji P. Henson, who has undoubtedly gained a lot of popularity with Empire and Hidden Figures. Tyler Perry is always a strong name to bring in African-American women, and I don’t see that changing here, especially with the added benefit of Good Friday. Legs probably won’t be the best, but this will be another easy money maker for him. 22/53 (2.41x)
That One Guy Grades His 2018 Predictions
in Box Office Discussion
Posted