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Eric Prime

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    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

    I wonder when Black Panther's presales will be, I assume it'll be either next week or the week after. 

     

    I wouldn't be surprised if WB times Ready Player One's presales for late February.

    Boner Omega said they would start tomorrow. My two home theaters also have showtimes up for Thursday, but they aren’t for sale yet. Makes sense, since there’s a promo for some football game tomorrow 

    WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Also, even with the Cloverfield date change, I think Rampage will stay put and keep the IMAX screens. Ninjago was originally slated for IMAX, but then Kingsman got it when it moved to September, and Jumanji was supposed to get IMAX in its July slot, but gave it to Star Wars when it moved to Christmas. And I don't know how these deals and negotiations work, but I'm pretty sure IMAX has power in what they screen, and they would probably pick the Dwayne Johnson movie over a film based on a niche property.

    WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Maybe it's because I'm on a Jumanji high, but I think there's a decent chance Rampage can go above $200M. Trailer views are stupid high, it fits Johnson's wheelhouse, I'm not super high on Quiet Place and New Mutants like you are, and the only thing it has to deal with for an entire month is Infinity War, which could very well be a Civil War and be inaccessible or uninteresting for newcomers and casual fans, and since it's the only alternative until Memorial Day... (Yes, I know there's Sldenderman and some dumb Melissa McCarthy and Johnny Knoxville comedy, but...c'mon.)

    • Like 2

    WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Wow, the idea of Pacific Rim 2 beating A Wrinkle in Time is really laughable and weird, Han. I don't think anything so far can top that--

    6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

    April 13

    The New Mutants: No other movie is daring to face this, and it’s for a good reason. The New Mutants represents a new endeavor in the comic book movie craze: horror. Both genres are coming off record-breaking years, and people want new, unique movies. This fits that bill and is releasing on the perfect date. Friday the 13th always leads to big grosses for horror movies, but how will it affect a superhero horror movie? I’m betting a lot! It also helps that the rest of April and May look a bit light on competition (though it will drop a bit in its second weekend and May 4). Don’t be surprised if this comes close to Logan. 70/200 (2.86x)

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    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

    First of all Miss, I'm a lot older than you and clearly better mannered. You don't address a stranger with such impertinence. But I'll allow it since the moderators here are slack.

     

    You say TLJ had $200M production costs. Please offer a figure for its marketing and distribution costs. As you know those are separate and additional expenses.

     

    In some cases these expenses are double the production costs, especially on globally distributed movies like this one. I've heard TLJ had total costs as high as $800M+. I've also heard that as a rule of thumb movies aim to make three times their production costs in order to break even.

     

    So. Assuming that figure is correct: $800M, TLJ hasn't broken even yet. This of course based upon the studios recouping in this case 65% of the North American gross and far less of the overseas revenues.

     

    Please take your time before you attempt to respond.

     

    Thanks.

    Y'know, for a guy who calls himself "TheForceuser," you seem to be ultra-negative about everything TLJ. Why is that?

    • Haha 2

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, a2knet said:

    Industry estimates for the weekend of Jan. 5-7:

      1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle  (SONY), 3,801 theaters (+36) / $10.8M Fri (-39%)/3-day: $35.8M (-29%)/Total:$244.1M/ Wk 3
      2. Insidious: The Last Key (UNI), 3,116 theaters (0)/ $12.5M  Fri/3-day: $25M/ Wk 1
      3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $7M  Fri (-63%)/3-day: $24.5M  (-23%)/Total:$573.4M/ Wk 4
      4. The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 3,342 theaters (+26) / $4.1M Fri (-22%) / 3-day: $14.1M (-9%)/Total: $77.2M/Wk 3
      5. Pitch Perfect 3  (UNI), 3,458 theaters (-10)/ $3.3M  Fri (-50%)/3-day: $10.5M (-37%)/Total: $86.2M/ Wk 3
      6. Ferdinand  (FOX), 3,156 theaters (-181) / $2.3M Fri (-47%) /3-day: $8.9M(-22%)/Total: $71.6M/ Wk 4
      7. Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,733 theaters (+790)/ $1.8M Fri (+6%) /3-day: $6.6M(+20%)/ Total: $28.6M/ Wk 7
      8. Molly’s Game (STX) 1,608 theaters (+1,337)/$2.2M Fri (+200%)/3-day:$6.2M (+165%)/Total: $13.5M/ Wk 2
      9. Coco(DIS), 1,894 theaters (-210) / $1.6 M Fri (-45%)/3-day: $5.7M(-22%)/Total: $192.2M / Wk 7
      10. All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,123 theaters (+49)/ $1M Fri (-40%)/3-day: $3.6M (-34%)/Total: $20.2M/Wk 2
      11. The Shape of Water  (FSL), 804 theaters (+48)  / $789K Fri (-33%) /3-day: $2.7M (-22%)/Total: $21.3M/Wk 6Notables:

        The Post  (FOX/DW), 36 theaters (+27) / $500K  Fri (+192%) /3-day:$1.6M (+182%)/Total: $3.7M/Wk 3

        Phantom Thread  (FOC), 6 theaters (+2) / $64K  Fri (-10%)/3-day:$204K (-6%)/PTA: $34K/Total: $911K/Wk 2

        Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool   (SPC), 4 theaters  / $6K  Fri (-45%)/3-day:$22K (-38%)/PTA: $5,3K/Total: $81K/Wk 2

    http://deadline.com/2018/01/insidious-the-last-key-last-jedi-jumanji-weekend-box-office-1202236009/

    Those sexy holds.

     

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    • Like 3

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

    Between predicting TLJ would have mixed WOM and a significantly worse multi than RO back on OD, to predicting Jumanji could do NATM numbers several weeks before release, to saying Showman might hit 125m+ last weekend...I must say I'm feeling pretty confident about my bold 2018 predictions right about now. :sparta:

    If Solo makes less than $300M, I'm gonna go Liam Neeson on your ass.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1. SWEET BABY JESUS THAT JUMANJI NUMBER. Screw Skyfall, Spider-Man 3's the new threshold to beat.

     

    2. SWEET BABY JESUS THANK YOU FOR THAT WACK STAR WARS PREDICTION. My girl Daisy Ridley doesn't deserve this audience backlash, so going near $25M is A-OK in my book.

     

    3. SWEET BABY JESUS THAT GREATEST SHOWMAN NUMBER. Someone on AwardsWatch mentioned that this is playing out a lot like Frozen (not in total gross obviously, but in terms of legginess and word of mouth), but this is doing even better. It's impressive as hell, and only shows just how amazing musicals can really do BO-wise when all the right elements are in place (Mamma Mia 2 will be the sleeper of the summer season, watch out!)

    • Like 1
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