Eric is Quiet
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Posts posted by Eric is Quiet
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https://deadline.com/2024/04/wonka-movie-profits-1235899978/
QuoteWhat’s the trick to succeeding with a musical on the big screen? You have to hide it from the audience in the marketing and trick them, in this case to a tune of $140M in P&A. Once audiences are inside the theater they’ll either love or hate it, and several did love this as through the year-end holiday: Wonka, which hit U.S. theaters December 15, was No. 1 for three of its first four weekends at the B.O. (Note: The only time it was No. 2 was when Warner Bros opened DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom over Christmas; Wonka decimated that sequel both in stateside [$218.4M vs. $124.4M] and worldwide [$632.3M vs. $434.4M] coin.) The current Warner Bros feature administration of Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy were so excited about Wonka, they began screening it to the media before Thanksgiving to generate word of mouth; exhibitors got a taste of the musical at CinemaCon in April. Also working in Wonka‘s favor was the actors strike ending November 8, enabling the movie to truly fire up a PR tour with a world premiere in London, another in Los Angeles, as well as Chalamet singing the film’s song “Pure Imagination” during his Saturday Night Live hosting gig November 11. The $150M streaming revenues includes the money Warner Bros paid itself to put the film on its Max streaming service. Wonka was such a success, coupled with Chalamet’s Dune: Part Two (combined global B.O. for both titles at $1.3M), that the Burbank, CA lot hammered out a first-look feature film deal with the Oscar-nominated actor. End result here is $182M net profit, proving musicals are still very much alive.
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2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
I think Bad Boys gonna do quite a bit above that actually, and weird Quiet Place only got a cursory mention when it's apparently good and on track for a solid 50 or so opening. He's right about Furiosa though, that's always been my flop of the summer pick.
Is Quiet Place really going for that? Would be pretty surprising for a spin-off with none of the original actors to open on par with the first opening.
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The domestic box office at $2 billion currently this year is dragging 21% behind the same January-April spread last year, and when Universal’s The Fall Guy commences the hot moviegoing season this Friday with a hopeful $35M, expect summer to drag some more.
That’s because the lack of product due to the actors strike has made a backloaded May-through-Labor Day frame in what will be lucky — lucky — to hit $3 billion. That’s a $1 billion, or 27%, less than last summer’s $4.09 billion, per Comscore. More bad news about summer: It’s not going to catch up the year any more against 2023.
Several distribution insiders are still projecting an $8 billion domestic final box office for 2024, $1 billion off from 2023’s $9B. However, instead of summer repping 45% of the total year, which was the case in 2023 — it looks to be around 38%, a share roughly on par with pre-pandemic summers. That means there’s more moviegoing in the off-season to go around. I mean, we could see the biggest opening of the year in September — or even summer, if you want to extend it past Labor Day to September 6-8 — in Warner Bros.’ long-awaited Tim Burton-Michael Keaton sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 2024 A.D. It very un-shockingly could deliver a $100M+ opening, possibly toppling the month’s all-time biggest opener, It, from Warner’s New Line, which debuted to $123.4M in 2017. If the Avengers movies could jumpstart summer early in late-April, why can’t Beetlejuice Beetlejuice extend it?
Breaking down the months, May will be absent a $100M-plus opening, neither in this coming weekend nor Memorial Day weekend. There are notable sleeper tentpoles abounding, i.e. 20th Century Studios’ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($50M opening on May 10) and John Krasinski’s Ryan Reynolds all-audience imaginary friend feature, IF ($40M+ projection on May 17).
However, some are expecting — gulp — a coin toss between Sony’s Garfield and Warner Bros/Village Roadshow’s Max Max: Fury Road prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga in the $30M+ 4-day range over Memorial Day weekend, May 24-27.
One of the four movies expected to work this summer is Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2, which opens over Father’s Day weekend, June 14-16. From the hysterical and heartwarming footage shown at CinemaCon, the sequel returns Pixar to the charm and humor it is beloved for. The pic could be the first $100M opening of 2024.
The other goodie of June is Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die on June 6 which six-week projection tracking firm Quorum has at a $60M start which is on par with the 3-day of the 2020 movie, Bad Boys for Life ($62.5M).
July contains three of four titles which rep the aorta of the summer box office: Illumination/Universal’s Despicable Me 4 on July 3 (pic will have a 5-day opening, a $100M start over that frame wouldn’t be shocking), Disney/Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine on July 26 (many are putting pressure on this movie to be the belle of the ball), and Universal/Warner Bros’ Twisters on July 19. Deadpool & Wolverine reps the first R-rated superhero release for Disney’s MCU, the franchise inherited from the 20th Century Fox merger. Upside: Hugh Jackman is back after dying in Logan and the film has a three-week run in Imax (the longest hold of any title this summer), though the last week will be shared with Lionsgate’s Eli Roth feature take of videogame Borderlands on Aug. 9
Surprises this summer: New Line’s Kevin Costner 3-hour western Horizon “can be a $5M or a $100M movie” per one rival. M. Night Shyamalan can sometimes surprise, so don’t count his Josh Hartnett creepy dad at a young popstar concert feature, Trap, out on Aug. 9 (“It’s a sticky concept,” says one marketing exec). Both Trap and The Watchers on June 7 from Shyamalan’s daughter Ishana Shyamalan rep the first movies during the Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy administration at Warners, those execs luring the filmmakers over from Universal). Also, Paramount’s prequel, A Quiet Place: Day One, from Pig filmmaker Michael Sarnoski, which takes the action to New York City with Lupita Nyong’o, looks to reawaken the John Krasinski born franchise even more on June 28.
The other movie which many think could raise the bar is from NEON; yes NEON: Oz Perkins’ Nicolas Cage and Maika Monroe horror movie Longlegs. There’s been four poster teasers and WTF clips leading up to the main trailer drop which has some intrigued about its potential on July 12.
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Johnson’s behavior has led to confrontations with costars, most famously Vin Diesel. “Vin has been having problems with The Rock because The Rock keeps showing up late for production,” an insider told People during their work together on the “Fast and Furious” franchise. “Sometimes he doesn’t show up at all, and he’s delaying the production.”
The next Fast and Furious going to cost 500M or something. Just you wait.
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Quorum Updates
IF T-18: 47.69% Awareness, 50.31% Interest
Fly Me to the Moon T-74: 14.68% Awareness, 34.65% Interest
Deadpool & Wolverine T-88: 49.95% Awareness, 64.3% Interest
Alien: Romulus T-109: 29.19% Awareness, 46.49% Interest
Blink Twice T-116: 10.96% Awareness, 36.6% Interest
Piece by Piece T-165: 14.52% Awareness, 31.8% Interest
Tarot T-4: 31.33% Awareness, 48.83% Interest
Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M
Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M
Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M
Horror Interest: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M
The Fall Guy T-4: 47.78% Awareness, 50.28% Interest
Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 5% chance of 80M, 2% chance of 90M
Tentpole Awareness: N/A
Final Interest: 91% chance of 10M, 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M
Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-11: 64.48% Awareness, 58.09% Interest
Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 29% chance of 100M
Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 100M
Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M
Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M
Bad Boys for Life T-39: 54.41% Awareness, 59.09% Interest
T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 95% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 40M, 79% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 53% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 31% chance of 100M
Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M
T-30 Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M, 66% chance of 40M, 51% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 70M, 26% chance of 80M, 23% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M
Medium Interest: 86% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 57% chance of 30M, 29% chance of 40M, 14% chance of 50M
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9 minutes ago, AniNate said:
So were Zimmer/Britell/Pharrell just completely dropped? Disappointed this won't have that wild tandem
Wikipedia says they’re still on it. It could be like the OG Lion King where Elton just wrote the songs and Hans did the instrumentals,
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16 minutes ago, filmscholar said:
Does this mean "Sonic 3" will move out of this slot. I mean it will clearly have to fight for Families against a Juggernaut like "The Lion King". Regardless of how the critics or fans of the original feel. Disney had 1.6 Billion reasons to do this sequel. It's also been 5 years since the last one and this is the 30th Anniversary of the original. The timing is right for another gangbuster performance. Of course this is Post-Covid so 1.6 Billion again will be hard. "Avatar 2" even dropped as good as it did. But over a Billion is definitely a lock with Christmas and New Years to clean up.
Nah. Sonic is different enough in terms of audience that it won’t crossover too much. And if there’s any time of the year where a bunch of hits can coexist, it’s Christmas. Besides, at least domestically, Sonic is probably gonna be the victor.
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35 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
I hear ya. I think the difference to me is that this has more of a blank canvass to paint an original idea, whereas those two films were still working to check certain boxes. Also, respect to Zhao and the always dependable Mangold, but I put Jenkins a level above tbh. Moonlight is probably the most recent film released that is legitimately factored into "greatest movie ever" debates - it was the consensus critics pick for movie of the decade, and it's not like Beale Street and Underground Railroad were heaters in their own way.
Agree with everything here. And to be fair, there's plenty of great directors who have found their voice and talent in the Disney meddling (Gunn, Coogler, kind of Taika and kinda not). I'd even say Aladdin and Cruella are the better of these remakes, in part because the more annoying aspects of their directors was sanded off. This could very well be the case here. Still, it's hard not for me to be at least a little skeptical and not think that Jenkins' talents couldn't be used on a more interesting project than a prequel to a remake nobody liked.
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8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
Looks better and more interesting than the last piece of trash.
Why are people acting like Barry Jenkins is some idiot without agency who had to make this because he wasn't able to do his own projects or something? Maybe he really wanted to do this and we should have some modicum of faith in a guy generally considered to be a transcendent talent?
I’m sure Barry is passionate about the idea and I get why he would want to do it. Being able to give your own spin on a movie you love is a great idea on paper. But Disney isn’t really the place where autuerist visions really shine. Like I remember people were thinking Eternals would be an all-time classic because it had Chloe Zhao. People thought James Mangold would bring something new to Indiana Jones, and he didn’t. And while these remakes usually go with boring journeymen, the few times they have don’t really translate. Like does Aladdin or Cruella really feel like a Ritchie or Gillespie movie?
Could still be good! I hope it’s good. But Disney meddling and their history makes me think otherwise. I dunno.
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27 minutes ago, YM! said:
Taka is Scar
“Taka” translates to “trash” btw. This man’s parents were dicks.
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4 minutes ago, grim22 said:
It's shorthand for "it looks/sounds like shit" and sets a baseline for AI just by the virtue of making people say it's awful.
I get that. But even the worst movies out there have more creativity and imagination than the best AI could offer, and is still a slap in the face to the talented people oftentimes stuck in bad projects.
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10 hours ago, Reddroast said:
I'll quote a buddy on discord: this looks like AI art. In a bad way
We as a culture need to stop this “it looks/feels like it was made by AI” snark
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Just now, AniNate said:
What's with Nope randomly being there at the bottom right
Because Po really likes that movie and thinks you should watch it. Which...I mean, I don't think he's wrong about that.
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13 minutes ago, MOVIEGUY said:
It is absolutely criminal for theaters to have the audacity to not even be showing trailers at the movie's start time. Movie was supposed to start two minutes ago and they're showing a coca cola commercial
AMC MUST BE STOPPED.
Regal does the same thing. You sit down for the showtime they stated, but then you have 10 more minutes of ads, and then we get to the trailers. In my day, the showtime meant that was when the trailer happened. I'm sure they get more money doing this, but...man, it really is no wonder why streaming won the battle.
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Moderation
Okay, we're done with this whole "Is Saltburn a hit actually" conversation. It's very clear neither side wants to listen to each other, so why bother continuing it?
I'm also going to say that the hyperbole over Challengers has also gotten old. This isn't looking to be some epic failure, Amazon's not going out of business, this isn't this ultra-expensive tentpole, but a lot of users here are acting like it is. Plus, this whole "Civil War should have opened to 70M and Challengers should have opened to 40M because I said so" stuff? Borderline trolling material. Please act a bit more reserved over this movie, stop acting like it's a total bomb, and relax. Or else. Your choice.-
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2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:
Should have made Challengers with Holland and Chalamet instead. Would have brought the budget up to 100M but would have probably made like 400M.
Would lose my mind if Timothee was in this. Challengers is already bisexual heaven. Then you add him? Oh…oh my…oh, Eric’s going nutso again ahhhhhhhhh
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31 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
This is the part I don't understand, according to survey, the audience are hunger for something original but when something original great movie come out, nobody bother to care.
Millennials and Gen-Z Want Original Movies and TV, Not Remakes, New Streaming Survey Says
15m isn't really a high bar as a "better" position, considering there are many movies clear 15m OW mark during those strike months.
For years I’ve heard people crowing that they want more original stuff. But that is just so they can sound smart. Nobody wants to admit they actually want the same old slop. People can and always have been too piss scared to leave their comfort zone, and it’s only gotten worse over the years. Maybe one day people will actually be brave and see something that doesn’t have a 2 after it or isn’t based on a thing they saw as kids. But alas, that day hasn’t arrived yet.
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3 minutes ago, John Marston said:
Sure. Fact is Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire is better for theaters than Challengers or Civil War
I...don't think he said otherwise? But yeah, that's cool.
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1 hour ago, JonathanMB said:
Honestly pretty fantastic considering how the PostTrak numbers looked and that RT looks like it will stay below 80%. Plus stories like this:
lol I’ve been there before. I loved The Card Counter, thought the story and characters were dynamite, and then everybody else in the theater were dunking on it. One guy was like “what was the movie even about?”, with others saying “I just think the movie wasn’t about anything.” It’s always a good reminder at times like these that while my life might not be perfect, at least I’m smart enough to have media literacy and connect the dots for myself instead of having stuff spoonfed to me.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Hmm...two duds in a row...might need to schedule another rant about undemanding audiences this weekend? Or maybe I'll wait until all the other non-NTCs this summer bomb...let's see.
I'm not actually doing that btw, don't worry about it. I know y'all don't want to hear it lol