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Everything posted by Eric Quinn
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 30 33 8,099 0.41% Total Seats Sold Today: 8 Comp 0.065x of It: Chapter Two 26 days before release (685K) Adjusted Comp 0.536x of Hobbs & Shaw 26 days before release (3.11M) This wasn't an amazing day per se, but rising comps are always a good thing, and that 3M is a much more believable preview number at the moment. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 32 126 8,464 1.49% Total Seats Sold Today: 2 Comp 0.157x of It: Chapter Two 12 days before release (1.64M) Adjusted Comp 0.051x of Lion King 12 days before release (1.16M) 0.589x of Hobbs & Shaw 12 days before release (3.42M) This really needs to do well the next few days. It's been lagging behind Hobbs & Shaw, the best comp so far, at an alarming rate. Sub-40M could happen if things don't shape up. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
@kitik Almost forgot, Fandango announced Doctor Sleep's tickets would go on sale on October 25 a while back. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Don't want to be that guy. But UM ACTUALLY, there are a couple theaters around me that have the October 25th openers up. Black and Blue and Current War start at 7, while Countdown looks to be starting at 8. Also Harriet is having previews at 7, and I didn't know until now it's going straight to wide. Maybe the lukewarm reviews meant Focus wanted to get as much money as possible upfront. -
https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-estimates-joker/ Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic) FRI, OCT. 4 – SUN, OCT. 6 WIDE (1000+) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Joker $91,500,000 — 4,374 — $20,919 $91,500,000 1 Warner Bros. 2 Abominable $12,400,000 -40% 4,248 6 $2,919 $38,233,115 2 Universal Pictures 3 Downton Abbey $7,900,000 -45% 3,548 158 $2,227 $73,526,935 3 Focus Features 4 Hustlers $6,100,000 -46% 3,030 -478 $2,013 $91,121,880 4 STX Entertainment 5 Judy $4,500,000 54% 1,458 997 $3,086 $8,958,443 2 Roadside Attractions / LD Entertainment 6 Ad Astra $4,400,000 -56% 2,910 -550 $1,512 $43,505,768 3 20th Century Fox 7 Rambo: Last Blood $3,400,000 -60% 2,900 -718 $1,172 $39,673,895 3 Lionsgate 8 Good Boys $820,000 -60% 1,006 -497 $815 $81,962,620 8 Universal Pictures 9 The Lion King $700,000 -58% 1,034 -657 $677 $541,296,057 12 Walt Disney Pictures LIMITED (100 — 999) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Angel Has Fallen $550,000 -64% 831 -821 $662 $68,295,715 7 Lionsgate 2 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw $520,000 -56% 682 -418 $762 $173,079,340 10 Universal Pictures 3 The Peanut Butter Falcon $500,000 -44% 623 -312 $803 $18,997,929 9 Roadside Attractions 4 Scary Stories to Tell In The Dark $460,000 -43% 577 -182 $797 $67,500,726 9 CBS Films / Lionsgate 5 Overcomer $400,000 -56% 672 -534 $595 $33,900,991 7 Sony Pictures 6 Dora and the Lost City of Gold $325,000 -55% 481 -280 $676 $59,982,856 9 Paramount Pictures 7 Toy Story 4 $240,000 19% 243 0 $988 $433,323,004 16 Disney 8 47 Meters Down: Uncaged $95,000 -28% 145 -112 $655 $22,109,825 8 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures 9 Aladdin $65,000 -26% 105 -19 $619 $355,478,228 20 Disney 10 The Art of Racing in the Rain $55,000 -24% 103 -46 $534 $26,255,078 9 20th Century Fox 11 Ready or Not $50,000 -64% 125 -76 $400 $28,610,107 7 Fox Searchlight PLATFORM (1 — 99) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Lucy In The Sky $60,000 — 37 — $1,622 $60,000 1 Fox Searchlight 2 Chhichhore $30,000 -78% 33 -45 $909 $1,987,134 5 FIP 3 Britt-Marie Was Here $8,500 76% 9 1 $944 $8,500 3 Cohen Media Group 4 Tel Aviv on Fire $7,000 32% 6 2 $1,167 $7,000 10 Cohen Media Group
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Guess this confirms, unless Charlie's Angels fever sweeps the nation, that this is the first year since 2004 only one studio had their movies open to at least 100M. Of course in 2004, only one movie actually opened to 100M, while this year will have...six. Yes, you can quote me if Joker's Saturday is bonkers.
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Literally the only reason why Sesame Street is getting funding and is still airing new episodes is from HBO. DVDs used to be their main source of income in the 2000s, but after the home media market started to die down, they had no other steady source of income for the show and had to get money from HBO to get this through. If people are upset over this HBO Max stuff, they should just be grateful we're getting new content in the first place.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
No showtimes appear anywhere near my area. Fandango only has its FanAlert message. Maybe it's just your area being special, being in Cali and whatnot. Besides, I'm not gonna bother tracking it until release week. 3-Day range from BOP doesn't come anywhere close to 40M -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 30 25 8,099 0.31% Comp 0.050x of It: Chapter Two 27 days before release (528K) Adjusted Comp 0.417x of Hobbs & Shaw 27 days before release (2.42M) BOP's range has it at 35-45M. The 40M+ rule applies. I'm tracking it. Anyways, the movie clearly didn't rock the boat here, but that It2 comp is pretty lol, so don't take it super seriously. The Hobbs & Shaw one is a pretty solid one so far though. Both are action-heavy, male-targeted franchises with IMAX, 7PM previews, and no 3D. Though admittedly, while I have no idea how frontloaded the film will be, I'm confident that that 2.42M would not be very good for this movie. We'll see how the coming weeks do -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 32 124 8,464 1.47% Total Seats Sold Today: 4 Comp 0.159x of It: Chapter Two 14 days before release (1.68M) Adjusted Comp 0.051x of Lion King 14 days before release (1.18M) 0.613x of Hobbs & Shaw 14 days before release (3.56M) -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
For those who care -
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-knives-out-queen-slim/ 8-Week Forecast Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor 10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $23,000,000 – $28,000,000 $25,000,000 9% $88,000,000 3,800 United Artists Releasing 10/11/2019 Gemini Man $26,000,000 – $31,000,000 $28,000,000 $85,000,000 3,500 Paramount 10/11/2019 Jexi $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000 -13% $17,000,000 -15% 2,300 Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One 10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 $40,000,000 $120,000,000 4,000 Disney 10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000 $77,000,000 3,700 Sony / Columbia 10/25/2019 Black and Blue $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $11,000,000 -8% $32,000,000 -8% Sony / Screen Gems 10/25/2019 Countdown $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000 $33,000,000 STX 10/25/2019 The Current War: Director’s Cut n/a n/a n/a 101 Studios 10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a n/a Roadside Attractions 11/1/2019 Arctic Dogs $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $7,000,000 $24,500,000 Entertainment Studios 11/1/2019 Harriet n/a n/a n/a Focus Features 11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn n/a n/a n/a Warner Bros. 11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000 $85,000,000 Paramount 11/8/2019 Doctor Sleep $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $92,000,000 Warner Bros. 11/8/2019 Last Christmas $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $15,000,000 $80,000,000 Universal 11/8/2019 Midway $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $47,000,000 Lionsgate 11/8/2019 Playing with Fire $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 $33,000,000 Paramount 11/15/2019 Charlie’s Angels (2019) $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $29,000,000 $78,000,000 Sony / Columbia 11/15/2019 The Good Liar n/a n/a n/a Warner Bros. 11/15/2019 Ford v. Ferrari $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $32,000,000 $115,000,000 Fox 11/22/2019 21 Bridges $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STX 11/22/2019 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $19,000,000 $105,000,000 Sony / Columbia 11/22/2019 Frozen 2 $115,000,000 – $145,000,000 $125,000,000 $450,000,000 Disney 11/27/2019 Knives Out $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,500,000 NEW $70,000,000 NEW Lionsgate 11/27/2019 Queen & Slim $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 NEW Universal
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 32 120 8,464 1.42% Total Seats Sold Today: 4 Comp 0.161x of It: Chapter Two 14 days before release (1.69M) Adjusted Comp 0.052x of Lion King 14 days before release (1.19M) 0.661x of Hobbs & Shaw 14 days before release (3.83M) It's good to have something you can look at for 20 minutes and do comps for in 10 minutes again. -
Not entirely convinced. Like I said, my comps are very optimisitc with most others saying somewhere around 11.5M or so. If it follows Venom with a non-inflated Sunday (It opened on Columbus weekend, which Joker won't have the luxury of): 11.5 37.4 inc. previews 30.3 (-19%) 19.7 (-35%) 87.4M OW 90M+ can still happen, but unless preview numbers are super high, I don't see 100M. But that's my own personal opinion of course