TServo2049
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Posts posted by TServo2049
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18 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
I’d be curious to see how it does in its third weekend with competition from Detective Pikachu. I think we could see a Jurassic World/Inside Out type weekend
I love those kinds of weekends, probably in part because they’re so rare.
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26 minutes ago, blackspider said:
Wow had no idea about either of those. Jesus Christ! A 6,000 seat theater!
Radio City Music Hall isn’t actually a movie theater most of the time, but yeah, that is crazy. And most the showings probably came close to selling out too; this is when Disney animation was like the Broadway of cinema, so Radio City was probably pulling in Broadway-level crowds for this.
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1 hour ago, blackspider said:
That adjusted PTA for ROTJ is very strange. I wonder how theaters handled demand for that back in the day. It must’ve just been selling out every show but I doubt theaters were staying open 24/7 and also can’t be as flexible in terms of adding showtimes as they are today.
On a unrelated note, still don’t understand how Lion Kings PTA is possible. And when you adjust it’s stupid.
Jedi played in a lot of premium 70mm venues that could go over 1,000 seats for a single screen. (Most of these theaters have been demolished or multiplexed over the years. Mostly demolished.) Even with fewer showtimes, those places could absorb 4,000-6,000 people per day (newspaper ads I can find tend to list 4-6 showtimes).
Also, there was upfront demand but even something like ROTJ had much better legs than today because there was not as much supply, movies spent longer in theaters, etc. It pulled a 6.1x off of its first six days (opening Wed to Memorial Day).
As for Lion King, that played at the El Capitan and Radio City Music Hall. El Capitan seats 1,100, and Radio City seats 6,015. I know from a Variety article that Radio City had 4 shows a day, and mentioned 5,000 seats available. At full capacity, RCMH would have accounted for 20,000 admissions a day.
Also, those were premium-priced tickets - it wasn’t just the movie, it had stage performance stuff too. According to that article, the Rockettes were part of the Radio City program. It specifically says Radio City showings were priced at $26 for adults, $21 for children/seniors - and this was in 1994 dollars. So it didn’t sell as many tickets as you’d assume from dividing it by the average price for 1994. The adjusted average is probably overinflated too.
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16 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:
By the way, anywhere in DHD's opening weekend range takes down Return of the Jedi to have the highest OW per-theater-average of all time adjusted.
This is a record I didn’t think it had a chance of breaking. That record has held for almost 36 years. If it gets that high, Endgame might stay on top even after BOM’s adjustment math that pegs each movie’s ticket price to the quarter in which it opened (which would deflate EG’s adjusted numbers if 2019’s yearly average ends up below the Q2 average)
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5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
Random thought, but do you guys have a movie(s), that no matter how many times you watch it, you enjoy it like it's the 1st time? And it doesn't even have to be a good/great movie, but somehow, you'll watch it every time it comes on?! For me, it's Unstoppable and the 1st John Wick!
That Thing You Do!
On several occasions, I have come across it while channel surfing, and every time I find it I watch it all the way through. And I am notorious for not being able to finish a movie in one sitting if I’m not in a theater.
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7 hours ago, Jonwo said:
DWA started outsourcing animation which has brought down the cost.
Except that HTTYD3 was made entirely at their main Glendale studio, judging by the names I saw in the credits...
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It seems like year there has to be one awful animated feature trailer that is absolutely inescapable. Free Birds and Sherlock Gnomes immediately come to mind (though this movie doesn’t look like it’s going to be as legendarily bad as those two. Phooey.)
(And for those who are wondering why I didn’t mention The Emoji Movie, it’s because somehow I never saw that trailer in front of any movies I saw that year, so I was able to escape it.)
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3 hours ago, That One Guy said:
Tomorrowland is great stop hating
While I will admit that the film was very flawed and uneven, I will say that oh my god, that World's Fair prologue was amazing. I was certain that this was going to be everything I hoped it would be...
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On 6/20/2018 at 4:33 PM, Jonwo said:
I wonder if Brad Bird will be able to get 1906 finally off the grounds, it's been stuck in development hell for ages.
I believe that WB is the studio that actually owns the film rights to 1906. It was supposed to be a co- production with Disney and Pixar, but they pulled out when the project fell apart.
If Brad Bird isn't the person who makes it, then my wish is for someone at WB to somehow convince Christopher Nolan to want to make it. I want the 1906 SF earthquake in IMAX 70mm, with lots of practical. Dunkirk convinced me even more that if Bird isn't the person who makes it, it needs to be Nolan.
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Actually, I was split on whether to suggest Keith David or James Earl Jones. Keith David was the first name that popped into my head, but I chose to say James Earl Jones for whatever reason. Maybe because he's closer to Freeman's age?
Regardless, either of them would work.
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8 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:
Guessing Virtivius ain’t coming back.
Maybe they could recast him with James Earl Jones or something.
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I will gladly take Demi Lovato over Katy Perry.
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3 hours ago, Jonwo said:
I think Disney will likely not give them $200-250m+ budget for an original film again
At least not for a first-time director. I wonder if they'd still be OK letting Pete Docter have one for his next project (which is also original). IO went over-budget, Lasseter insisted on the luminescence effects and so on, but it made a mint.
As of now, Docter is the only Pixar director to have a truly flawless track record (yes, I am counting John Carter and Tomorrowland because Disney put up the money and Lasseter/Pixar helped out to some degree or at least vouched for Stanton/Bird, and no, I am not counting Lee Unkrich because he only had one solo film and it was a sequel).
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48 minutes ago, incognitoo said:
Bermuda Triangle sounds interresting. Indy vs. the Devil... not so much. I mean, I remember two big Stars doing that (Eddie Murphy at the prime of his game and Arnold in his later years) - and the outcome of this: decent to bad flicks, halfway successful but not necessarily Box Office dynamite to go wild about. Don't know if the Pacino/Reeves movie did much better (I think it had the same costs/income ratio as End of Days). Maybe better to leave the Devil to his own game, besides genre movies like Prince of Darkness or The Prophecy that is. Though Constantine wasn't burning up the night either (which is a shame, I love this movie quite a lot).
You did get my point, though? Taking the same route with the 60s/70s setting as Lucas did with the 50s setting, trying to tie it into the supernatural stuff in the pop-culture/movie zeitgeist of the time, would mean substituting alien invasion flicks with the likes of Rosemary's Baby and The Exorcist. I agree with you, I don't think that'd be a good idea either.
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Yeah, but the number is so exact, and we don't know what numbers they used to get that estimate.
Snow White's is even stranger, where did they get 77,471,100 tickets? It's the opposite of GWTW's, how did they come to such a precise number? Even then, we do not know the individual figures that went into that.
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Jaws has the same issue, the 1976 and (I think) 1979(?) re-release grosses are counted in that round $260m figure.
GWTW's issue isn't that it's $189m gross is fully adjusted based on 1939 prices - it's not, that would come out to over $7 billion - but that the 1939-82 portion of its gross is adjusted based on an estimate of exactly 200 million tickets sold over the various releases up to '82. Where did that number come from? I don't know.
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It's weird, the alien theme of KotCS was supposed to fit with the 50s setting, but it was honestly so Erich von Danniken/"Chariots of the Gods"-lite (aliens built the pyramids, etc.) that it almost would have made sense to have the entry set in the 60s/70s be the one about ancient aliens...
Late 60s/early 70s would be a good period to work in Atlantis, or the Bermuda Triangle, or any of the other non-alien-type stuff you'd have seen Leonard Nimoy talking about on any given episode of In Search Of. Or maybe some kind of Eastern mysticism stuff of the kind that was popular with hippies and New Agers. (Or if they wanted to tie it into the dominant not-of-this-world theme of movies of the era in which the film is set, like Lucas tried to do with KotCS, they could venture into something Satanic...how "wrong" for the franchise would you folks consider Indy vs. the devil vis a vis Indy vs. aliens? It is still religious to a degree...)
Point is, the era was rife with all sorts of weird spiritual/supernatural stuff floating around the zeitgeist, they could certainly tap into some of it...
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They will all decrease. Nowhere to go but down.
And I already said EpVIII would decrease months before TFA released. Both previous trilogies followed the same pattern:
1st episode is the peak
2nd episode drops
3rd episode increases from 2nd but still below 1st
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There Was Never Just One
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5 minutes ago, #ED2-D2 said:
I'm sure someone likes the conversation but I'm sick of the inflation/admissions conversation.
It's a never ending discussion. I want numbers for today. Someone find them.
I offer a mea culpa.
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19 minutes ago, Biph Shmata said:
There is one way to do a relatively early check of the impact and lasting power of the movie. Count the number of little girls that knock on your door for Halloween dressed as Rey, I'm betting that number will be pretty large.
This is true. (True story: I knew in my gut that Frozen was going to be huge when a little girl in the next row said "I wanna be Elsa next Halloween!" as the credits started rolling.)
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33 minutes ago, lilmac said:
Alot of those first run dollars, I believe, are through 1977 but also 1978 and 1979.
I already researched it and found an article from 1997 saying that 1977 was $221.3m, 1978 was $43.8m, 1979 was $22.5m and 1981 was $17.2m. (There's about $2.46m of the official pre-1982-reissue $307,263,857 figure that's not accounted for in those numbers, but whatever...)
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Another thing that shows how freaking huge the first movie was. U.S. population was 220.24 million in 1977, compared to 322.07 million today. Heck, let's throw in Canada since it's counted toward the domestic market - add 23.73 million. 1977 population of USA+CAN was 243.97 million. If we look the original run not including the 1978 re-release, $221.3m, estimated 99.24 million tickets, that means it sold a ticket for every 2.5 people in North America. Let's add the 1978 "re-release" - especially assuming that yes, there were people seeing it for the first time then. The average NA population during that 1977-78 period comes out to 245.25 million. So take 118 million tickets total over both releases, and there was a ticket sold for every 2 people in North America. Mind-blowing, even factoring in repeat business.
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All the claims that Star Wars (it wasn't called A New Hope I'm 1977 so I will never use that to refer to its original run) made $307m in original release are wrong. That includes the 1978, 1979 and 1981 re-releases.
It actually made $221.3m in its true first run, and $43.8m from the summer 1978 re-release. The first run adjusts to $827.6m or $854.4m, depending on whether I calculate based on BOM's 2015 adjuster or their 2016 adjuster. I have no idea what the yearly average will come out to be - averaging those two values comes out to $841m, and using BOM's current Q4 2015 guesstimate of $8.61 to get a rough 2015 guesstimate of $8.41 gives us $834.6m.
That does seem low for how huge SW was, though the U.S. population was lower then. But there's a twist: I know people who do not consider the 1978 re-release a true re-release, but an extension of the first run, since the film was never out of theaters completely (at least one theater's engagement ran continuously through both releases). If you add the $43.8m of the 1978 "re-release" adjusted for inflation, you either get $1.016 billion at $8.61, or $983.7m at $8.34. Those two numbers average out to almost exactly $1 billion.
Either way, I wonder if the 2009-present NATO yearly averages don't produce accurate adjustments/estimated admissions for heavy 3D/IMAX/PLF releases whose true average paid price would be higher than the official NATO average for the entire theatrical market. No matter how well TFA does, I just cannot bring myself to believe it will end with more tickets sold than the original, either including or excluding the 1978 reissue (especially not including), even with 38 years of population growth. Not from all I know about how ridiculously huge the movie was.
Even though I just said $307m wasn't the actual first-run gross, from the prices I've been paying I do still wonder if it would still be best to compare against a ballpark of $1.2 billion for SW's original run. If you take the $221.3m divided by the official 1977 average of $2.23, that's 99.24 million tickets. If you take the $43.8m and divide it by the 1978 average of $2.34, you get another 18.72 million tickets. The total of both runs would be 117.96 million admissions. If you assume the entire $265.1m up to the end of the 1978 reissue would be equivalent to TFA making $1.2b, then the theoretical average ticket price it would be adjusted to would be $10.17. But if you assume just the $221.3m of the original run would be the same as TFA making $1.2b, then the theoretical average paid price for TFA would be $12.09.
So let's say TFA does in fact hit $1b. That would mean it would need to sell 98.3m tickets at an average of $10.17, or 82.7m tickets at an average of $12.09. Either way, if it gets to $1b I am convinced it will be doing it off of fewer admissions than we would assume off of whatever the 2015 national average turns out to be.
redfirebird2008, are you still around? Can you weigh in?
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Posted · Edited by TServo2049
Everybody knows you never go full Homer.