TServo2049
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Posts posted by TServo2049
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May be another one for my hypothetical 24-hour-plus marathon of YA-SF/F first entries that went nowhere.
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Raiders deserved it. I love Star Wars, it is iconic as all hell, but I think Raiders may just be a bit more fun to watch. (Because Spielberg?)
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Over the dead bodies of the Tolkien family.
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This could be fun. If it gets made.
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Why are the studios apparently on crazy pills as far as scheduling 2016? It feels like everything has been concentrating into certain weekends, when everything seemed like it was going to be more nicely spread out a few months ago...
I'm being hyperbolic on purpose, but really, why does stuff keep moving around?
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That was my point, I brought it up as something that didn't fit my thesis in the previous paragraph. JP's only "risk" was the CGI, and that didn't actually risk losing them a ton of money.Eh, I don't think JP was much of a risk. You've got the director whom everyone loves, a concept that everyone loves, a hugely successful book, and it wasn't even that expensive for a huge blockbuster.
And I did say Pirates was a risk - I specifically said I was surprised nobody had yet mentioned it. I don't know if it had to contend with Jaws/Star Wars-type studio doubts, however, since it seems a "thought up by studio executives" concept - which is part of why the Internet was pessimistic on it. (I have mused in the past that Battleship is basically what the Internet feared Pirates was going to be.)
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While it's not a hard and fast rule, many blockbuster first entries were mocked/second-guessed/eyebrow-raised beforehand, either in the industry or by industry-watchers like us (Star Wars, Superman (IIRC), E.T. (again, IIRC), Back to the Future, Batman '89...and nobody has mentioned Pirates of the Caribbean yet?! Much of the Internet, myself included, thought it was going to be a terrible movie and a colossal bomb) while many big-budget failed/underperforming franchise tentpoles were talked up massively by their studios and/or had high anticipation in geek circles, at least early on (Dune, Dick Tracy, Godzilla, Final Fantasy, Green Lantern, John Carter).
As I said, not a hard and fast rule - Battleship was mocked by the Internet and tanked, while something like Raiders of the Lost Ark or Jurassic Park was certainly risky but wasn't constantly dogged by rumors and naysaying (even though Raiders was Spielberg's follow-up to 1941, he still had had Jaws and Close Encounters, and Lucas had just come off of producing Empire; and with Jurassic Park, sure Spielberg came off of Hook, but that wasn't a bomb, and even if he wasn't at his 80s heights, he was still freakin' SPIELBERG)
OK, maybe that doesn't make much sense, but the point is that often the big successes are "underdogs" pre-release, with even the studio doubting them, while the notable failures/turkeys are often "pride before the fall" situations where the studio is insanely confident (at least publicly)...
...what were we talking about again?
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While there's a point here, maybe...
While privilege and all...it's real. So...whatever. Do it Marlon.
Still won't be funny, if their recent stuff is any indication.
I want the In Living Color Wayanses back. They'd make this funny.
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Meh. I would have enjoyed a Pacific Rim 2, but at least this is better than PR2 actually being made, tanking, and leaving us with an unresolved cliffhanger or something. Better to have a one-and-done...
I guess this also means no Hellboy III...or does it?
Del Toro has the most unmade projects of any filmmaker I can think of. It's crazy.
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Not unexpected. Movies consisting of the lead character's full name, and nothing else, seem almost cursed these days, at least since John Carter. Other than Jack Reacher, every single one of the last few years seemed to get renamed. Jack Ryan got a subtitle, Susan Cooper became Spy, Adam Jones became Burnt, and so on. I was waiting for this title change, I was sure it was going to happen, and it did.
This is the second Melissa McCarthy film to originally be titled after the lead character's full name, and to then be changed.
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Transporter could also end up beating Transcendence as the lowest-grossing release in over 3,400 theaters.
Fantastic Four will end up both as the lowest-grossing release in over 3,900 theaters ($30m+ under The Lone Ranger), and due to its theater count increase on weekend 2, the lowest-grossing release in over 4,000 as well ($70m+ under Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2).
In fact, F4 may end up as the lowest-grossing release in over 3,800 too (if it finishes under Planes 2, which was $59.16m). Not only that, it will end up in the bottom 5 releases in over 3,700. And the bottom 10 releases in over 3,600. And at least the bottom 25 releases in over 3,500; if it finishes under (again) Planes 2, it will be in the bottom 20!
Other 2015 inductees into the BO hall of shame:
• Tomorrowland, 3rd-lowest-grossing release in over 3,900 theaters, and also in the bottom 10 for 3,800+ (And along with F4, it has joined Lone Ranger as one of the only *three* releases in over 3,900 theaters to miss $100 million)
• The Man from UNCLE is very likely to finish in the bottom 10 for over 3,600 theaters (if it ends up below the $64.66m of Flushed Away)
Dishonorable mentions: Paul Blart 2 is in the bottom 20 for over 3,600 theaters, and Pixels will end up somewhere in the bottom 20 for over 3,700.
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Oh, TGD will definitely do better, no question, that I agree with you on. I guess maybe I was being overzealous, I guess can see it not fully connecting and getting to something like $135m.Also, it's surprising few are bringing up TGD with this movie. That one is obviously going to dominate the Thanksgiving to Xmas stretch among animated films, so that means the late Holiday legs for this could be weaker than usual.
Maybe I'm just not the right person to give a good prediction, because I was born in 1987 and grew up when Snoopy was still everywhere and instantly recognizable by all kids of my age.
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I repeat: Snoopy. The rest of the characters aside, Snoopy is timeless and has universal appeal. He's like Mickey Mouse without the potential turn-off characteristics of being so blandly cheerful and almost oppressively ubiquitous. Anybody who dislikes Snoopy needs to have his/her head examined.
I do agree that I don't think this movie will get much over $200m at best, Big Hero 6 numbers or Ice Age 3 admissions are likely the absolute best it can hope for (Blue Sky's highest domestic admissions were for IA1 and IA2 - $250-255m in today's value), but if they sell this well and everything lines up right, it could still become Blue Sky's highest-grossing film domestically, and their first $200m grosser, by passing IA3's $196m.
OS is a bigger question mark - I've always been under the impression that Japan loved Snoopy, but I don't know how true that holds in 2015. (And Fox has actually skipped a Japanese theatrical run for most of their animated releases as of late - hopefully that doesn't happen this time.)
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The 98.6% Self/Less percentage drop was actually due to a BOM typo in the weekend actual that's never been fixed. It really only dropped 86.3% in weekend 3.
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I enjoyed Sixth Sense, I loved Unbreakable. Signs jumped the rails in the last act as soon as we actually SAW the aliens.
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Well, with this new Brad guy in charge, maybe those mistakes will get corrected faster. Maybe try contacting them again?
The Hitman one actually messes up the total - though I notice that when a daily number messes up the total, that number usually gets fixed when the next actual comes in. We can only hope it happens this time.
With A Walk in the Woods, they don't have daily actuals for Fri-Sat either. Broad Green could be one of those distributors like A24 where they can't consistently get daily actuals.
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I think the best case scenario for 2016 is something like 2013, where nothing gets over 450m but there is a healthy middle. Dunno if that's what will actually happen.
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Would they? I thought there was all sorts of hand wringing over the lack of megahits. This summer (and year in general) has been a lesson in "be careful what you wish for."I think the major studios would prefer a summer like 2014 where they didn't have any bombs (but no outright huge breakouts) as opposed to the feast or famine of this summer.
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And actually, Avengers 1 is the only Marvel movie to have gotten a Labor Day expansion. Meanwhile, every Pixar movie since 2010 has gotten a Labor Day expansion.
And it's not like it's one-or-the-other. Both TA1 and Brave were expanded in 2012. I think TA1 was less of a sign of some Marvel trend, and more of "This was THE big movie of the summer, so we'll give it one last hurrah at the end of the season." In that respect, Jurassic World got the TA1 treatment this year.
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IM3 didn't get an expansion.
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For it to be second lowest, 1994-97's summer ticket sales would have to have been more than BOM claims when you adjust there. All four of those adjust to less than this year using their current $8.39 estimate. (Though admittedly, I do not remember 1994 or 1996 being "bad" summers - also, the combined population of the U.S.+Canada was ~55-60 million less than it is now. Maybe in terms of ticket sales relative to population, this was the second worst, that I could believe.)I'm also surprised. But that's already two sources claiming that it's indeed the second lowest.
Also, one site claimed ticket sales for the entire summer were worse than 2014, comparing an $8.60 average for 2015 (basically the Q2 average released by NATO) and an $8.21 average for 2014 (actually an average of the Q2/Q3 numbers, since about half of summer is in Q2 and about half is in Q3). That I absolutely do not believe.
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Is this really true? It's based off an estimated summer ticket price of about $8.60, only about a cent off from NATO's Q2 average of $8.61. Are we not sure the actual average ticket price for this summer wasn't lower, due to July-August not being as loaded with huge 3D tentpole successes? The Q3 average is usually lower, but we don't learn that until October.Do the press keep assuming the Q2 average price was the average price for all of summer? Even with Guardians and TMNT, the average price for Q3 2014 dropped 25 cents from Q2. Can't we assume a similar drop, perhaps more because of the craptastic August, and the far-and-away biggest movie of July-August (Minions) not having IMAX and mostly selling child-priced tickets?
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Theater owners should be able to turn down a new IMAX release in favor of a holdover, or at least be able to split showtimes. And if there is audience demand for 2D IMAX showings, they should be able to meet that as well. If I were a theater manager, I'd want to (for example) keep Jurassic World playing, even if not every showtime, as long as it was selling tickets.
Speaking of IMAX, I remember something I can't find documentation of - I saw Team America in an IMAX auditorium back in 2004. Was it an IMAX blowup? I can't find anything online mentioning Team America having played in IMAX. Did my theater just run regular 35mm in the IMAX theater because nothing else was available in IMAX that weekend? I'm not going crazy, am I?
EDIT: OK, apparently it did play in IMAX in some theaters, but the only info online is someone who had a list of all the IMAX engagements at the Lincoln Square 13 in NYC. Weird that BOM has never documented that it played IMAX.
...and to add further insult to injury with Transporter, BOM doesn't list it on their list of IMAX feature releases either! Yes, I am guessing that's probably a Keith-era oversight, but it's hilarious to pretend that even BOM cares so little about this movie that they don't know it's playing in IMAX.
Official Weekend Estimates: Maze Runner - 30.3M | Black Mass - 23.4M | Everest - 7.5M | The Visit - 11.4M | Perfect Guy - 9.7M
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by TServo2049
If you only hear rumors about sequels to 2 to 5 year old flops, underperformers or would-be franchises from places like this, chances are they ain't real.