dropsicaldackel

Been rather quiet of late (a bit like this page it seems, now that the animation fans don't have much left to talk about), but just wanted to pop my head in to gush at the fact that VETERAN will cross 10 million viewers some time this morning. It's its 25th day of release, so same speed as ASSASSINATION. It'll have a bigger day than that did, and without the benefit of a holiday so it may go further yet. 12 seems certain, but would love to see this crack 13 and climb to 3rd all time (domestic). Hwang Jung-min is the first actor to headline two consecutive 10 million hits and if they become 2nd and 3rd all time, wow. He's also all over town in new endorsements for online video game cashing in on his tough guy VETERAN character. Meanwhile, BEAUTY INSIDE hanging in there and should at the very least cross 2 million while ASSASSINATION will cross 12 mil today.

I did, found it rather glib but I think it will play well here. It's a cute gimmick and of course plenty of stars on screen but it also feels like a 125min music video.

Yeah, gonna be very interesting to see how this plays out. Very glad to see VETERAN open well, as WOM will be killer and carry it quite far. Way too early to tell but 10mil isn't out of the question. Then there's MEMORIES OF THE SWORD... Saw it today and it's a total disaster. Granted a film doesn't need my approval to do well but there's no way audiences will go for this, it's a mess... Later this month I expect THE BEAUTY INSIDE to put up strong melodrama numbers, maybe 4-5 million? Then OFFICE could swing 2-3.

Those Fri/Sat increases are a little better than the same weekends in previous years. It's the holidays, the bumps will be minimal for a few weeks. Strong no. for MI5 and as expected for ASSASSINATION (for me at least). I had a feeling this would either miss 10 mil or barely scrape over it. What this does tell me is that competition is a very real factor between the similar fare on offer. VETERAN's presales are pretty low, hope they pick up. The film is fantastic and is going to kill with an audience so I'm fully expecting strong word of mouth, but without a big opening at this juncture on the calender, it's not going to be enough to catch up with the rest of the field. Seeing MEMORIES OF THE SWORD in a few days, curious to see how it turns out.

Ouch! I hate THE PIRATES and love GANGNAM BLUES (I'm a big Yoo Ha fan). CON ARTISTS (aka TECHNICIANS) is so-so. KILLER TOON is underwhelming but POSSESSED is one of the very best K-horrors out there.

It's a little close to call right now. If ASSASSINATION holds really well it could be as much as 2.2-2.4 and MI5 could easily go over 2, throw in 1 million or so for holdovers and other new releases and you're looking at a total haul of 5.2-5.4 mil. Last year's similar weekend (when ROARING CURRENTS opened) reached 5 million and I believe that's still the record. I'm guessing that's a bit too much of an increase which is more likely to affect ASSASSINATION, which means... I dunno, too close to call!

Sorry guys, been away for a spell! ASSASSINATION off to a predictably good start and it's certainly a contender for 10, though competition is tough, so I wouldn't call it a lock just yet. MI5 and VETERAN could easily get 15 million between them and with MEMORIES OF THE SWORD also in play, that only leaves so much for the taking. Someone asked about marketing budgets? Every film is different but generally, the P&A for commercial films is about 1.5 mil. For something like ASSASSINATION, maybe 2.5? That's just a guess.

Possibly...

There was a private market screening in Cannes and I believe the reaction was positive, though that's hardly any kind of indication! Really hard to predict who will take the crown this summer. Earlier this year I was guessing ASSASSINATION but having seen it yesterday, I'm not sure it'll go the distance. It's impressive and the historical angle may attract an older crowd but I'm not sure younger people will go for it. It'll certainly do well but may do numbers in line with THE BERLIN FILE. MI5 will do gangbusters, and 10 million is not out of the question, especially with Busan Honorary Citizen Mr. Cruise returning! I've heard great things about VETERAN and CJ is holding an earlier than usual press screening (next Tuesday), which is generally a show of confidence. That said, the film feels more like a souped up version of THE UNJUST than THE BERLIN FILE, which is exactly what I want to see, but may prevent it from being a massive hit. Hwang Jung-min will hit the older crowd though and the film feels cool enough get younger people too, though the lack of women may also hurt it. Ultimately, could wind up in 5-8 mil range maybe? MEMORIES OF THE SWORD is the wild card. It's very late, but after the relative success of TERMINATOR it seems Lee Byung-hun is no longer a pariah in the public's eye. There also hasn't been a period hit in a while. That will either work in its favor or against it. I really don't know how to call this one... THE BEAUTY INSIDE should do great for its genre, but no romance film has ever cracked 5 mil (save A WEREWOLF BOY, but that was different), so I wouldn't expect more than that. There's also OFFICE, which I enjoyed (with reservations) and I imagine the filmmakers hope to score somewhere in the range of HIDE AND SEEK but I think it's a stretch. 2-3 mil tops. Final prediction? The top 3 Korean releases all feel like 7ish grossers for me, while MI5 should do a little more. That said, one of the local releases will probably break out, while another suffers. It's anybody's guess which one that is...

Yeah, GOTG's poor run plus they wanna avoid the late-July/August local movie marathon. MI5 is the only major foreign release out at that time, and that has a proven track record. We saw the same thing with ELYSIUM in 2013, delayed a month or so to avoid SNOWPIERCER.

Looks to be a strong weekend, shame I have no love for the top two films! Looking at indie releases I'm very glad to see MADONNA crack the top 10 (the best Korean film of the year to date) but given its larger-than-usual marketing push I was hoping for more. Sadly, I think it's too dark to grow strong legs and it's going to need over 100k viewers to break even. Looking to next week, pre-sales haven't really kicked in for THE PIPER but I hope it does well, my favorite local commercial film since GANGNAM BLUES.

Wouldn't worry about it, have heard good things! Though I am more excited for VETERAN. Was bound to get off to a good start but I really hope WOM sinks it (sorry), even though the local industry needs a hit.

The potential problem with TERMINATOR (and the rest of Lee Byung-hun's films this year) is that celebrity scandals have a negative effect of Korean box office which is far more pronounced than anything else I've ever seen. Just to mention a few recent examples, MY BRILLIANT LIFE massively underperformed last Chuseok despite two huge stars, a big director and actually being pretty damn good. The problem was that Song Hye-kyo was involved in a tax scandal and netizens tore here to shreds and definitely had a massive impact on the film's returns. Same this year with CASA AMOR: EXCLUSIVE FOR LADIES, not exactly a tentpole, but Clara's massive unpopularity following her 'lying' scandals (not sure what else you'd call them) led to a distressing 149k total. And then again during the Lunar New Year with C'EST SI BON, which was expected to do very well, but Han Hyo-joo's brother's involvement in a military bullying scandal badly tarnished her reputation. To be clear, I think all these reactions are really extreme as I think a film should speak for itself and these vendettas against celebrities are really small-minded, but it's been a pretty consistent trend. It's not like in the rest of the world, where all publicity is good publicity. In Korea, bad publicity for a star is bad for business, while inversely, negative publicity around a film's theme can sometimes turn it into an unexpected hit (SILENCED, 26 YEARS, UNBOWED, etc.). Lee Byung-hun is huge and people are really angry with him here. I bet we'll see a witch hunt mount against him in the coming weeks. I imagine it will have some effect on the box office of his films, but hopefully won't shoot them down completely.

Solid start for THE CLASSIFIED FILE. Didn't particularly care for it but I imagine it will have a strong weekend though I don't think it will have any great WOM. So-so start for THE SILENCED, which I've heard is really good (out of country now so haven't had a chance to see it yet). And the summer frame looks a but busier with Lotte finally scheduling MEMORIES OF THE SWORD. I bet they're very nervous about it and hoping that they can hop on the tailwinds of Lee Byung-hun's performance in TERMINATOR. In any case, local films should rebound nicely in late July. Very much looking forward to all three of the big Korean tentpoles!

Yeah, my top 10s of the last few years have been dominated by low-budget fare. Was particularly taken with A GIRL AT MY DOOR and A DREAM OF IRON this year. A MIDSUMMER'S FANTASIA and MADONNA, which both open in the next few weeks, are also terrific. Still love commercial cinema though! HAEMOO was easily the best mainstream Korean film of last year.