dropsicaldackel

Been rather quiet of late (a bit like this page it seems, now that the animation fans don't have much left to talk about), but just wanted to pop my head in to gush at the fact that VETERAN will cross 10 million viewers some time this morning. It's its 25th day of release, so same speed as ASSASSINATION. It'll have a bigger day than that did, and without the benefit of a holiday so it may go further yet. 12 seems certain, but would love to see this crack 13 and climb to 3rd all time (domestic). Hwang Jung-min is the first actor to headline two consecutive 10 million hits and if they become 2nd and 3rd all time, wow. He's also all over town in new endorsements for online video game cashing in on his tough guy VETERAN character. Meanwhile, BEAUTY INSIDE hanging in there and should at the very least cross 2 million while ASSASSINATION will cross 12 mil today.

I did, found it rather glib but I think it will play well here. It's a cute gimmick and of course plenty of stars on screen but it also feels like a 125min music video.

Yeah, gonna be very interesting to see how this plays out. Very glad to see VETERAN open well, as WOM will be killer and carry it quite far. Way too early to tell but 10mil isn't out of the question. Then there's MEMORIES OF THE SWORD... Saw it today and it's a total disaster. Granted a film doesn't need my approval to do well but there's no way audiences will go for this, it's a mess... Later this month I expect THE BEAUTY INSIDE to put up strong melodrama numbers, maybe 4-5 million? Then OFFICE could swing 2-3.

Those Fri/Sat increases are a little better than the same weekends in previous years. It's the holidays, the bumps will be minimal for a few weeks. Strong no. for MI5 and as expected for ASSASSINATION (for me at least). I had a feeling this would either miss 10 mil or barely scrape over it. What this does tell me is that competition is a very real factor between the similar fare on offer. VETERAN's presales are pretty low, hope they pick up. The film is fantastic and is going to kill with an audience so I'm fully expecting strong word of mouth, but without a big opening at this juncture on the calender, it's not going to be enough to catch up with the rest of the field. Seeing MEMORIES OF THE SWORD in a few days, curious to see how it turns out.

Ouch! I hate THE PIRATES and love GANGNAM BLUES (I'm a big Yoo Ha fan). CON ARTISTS (aka TECHNICIANS) is so-so. KILLER TOON is underwhelming but POSSESSED is one of the very best K-horrors out there.

It's a little close to call right now. If ASSASSINATION holds really well it could be as much as 2.2-2.4 and MI5 could easily go over 2, throw in 1 million or so for holdovers and other new releases and you're looking at a total haul of 5.2-5.4 mil. Last year's similar weekend (when ROARING CURRENTS opened) reached 5 million and I believe that's still the record. I'm guessing that's a bit too much of an increase which is more likely to affect ASSASSINATION, which means... I dunno, too close to call!

Sorry guys, been away for a spell! ASSASSINATION off to a predictably good start and it's certainly a contender for 10, though competition is tough, so I wouldn't call it a lock just yet. MI5 and VETERAN could easily get 15 million between them and with MEMORIES OF THE SWORD also in play, that only leaves so much for the taking. Someone asked about marketing budgets? Every film is different but generally, the P&A for commercial films is about 1.5 mil. For something like ASSASSINATION, maybe 2.5? That's just a guess.

Possibly...

There was a private market screening in Cannes and I believe the reaction was positive, though that's hardly any kind of indication! Really hard to predict who will take the crown this summer. Earlier this year I was guessing ASSASSINATION but having seen it yesterday, I'm not sure it'll go the distance. It's impressive and the historical angle may attract an older crowd but I'm not sure younger people will go for it. It'll certainly do well but may do numbers in line with THE BERLIN FILE. MI5 will do gangbusters, and 10 million is not out of the question, especially with Busan Honorary Citizen Mr. Cruise returning! I've heard great things about VETERAN and CJ is holding an earlier than usual press screening (next Tuesday), which is generally a show of confidence. That said, the film feels more like a souped up version of THE UNJUST than THE BERLIN FILE, which is exactly what I want to see, but may prevent it from being a massive hit. Hwang Jung-min will hit the older crowd though and the film feels cool enough get younger people too, though the lack of women may also hurt it. Ultimately, could wind up in 5-8 mil range maybe? MEMORIES OF THE SWORD is the wild card. It's very late, but after the relative success of TERMINATOR it seems Lee Byung-hun is no longer a pariah in the public's eye. There also hasn't been a period hit in a while. That will either work in its favor or against it. I really don't know how to call this one... THE BEAUTY INSIDE should do great for its genre, but no romance film has ever cracked 5 mil (save A WEREWOLF BOY, but that was different), so I wouldn't expect more than that. There's also OFFICE, which I enjoyed (with reservations) and I imagine the filmmakers hope to score somewhere in the range of HIDE AND SEEK but I think it's a stretch. 2-3 mil tops. Final prediction? The top 3 Korean releases all feel like 7ish grossers for me, while MI5 should do a little more. That said, one of the local releases will probably break out, while another suffers. It's anybody's guess which one that is...

Yeah, GOTG's poor run plus they wanna avoid the late-July/August local movie marathon. MI5 is the only major foreign release out at that time, and that has a proven track record. We saw the same thing with ELYSIUM in 2013, delayed a month or so to avoid SNOWPIERCER.

Looks to be a strong weekend, shame I have no love for the top two films! Looking at indie releases I'm very glad to see MADONNA crack the top 10 (the best Korean film of the year to date) but given its larger-than-usual marketing push I was hoping for more. Sadly, I think it's too dark to grow strong legs and it's going to need over 100k viewers to break even. Looking to next week, pre-sales haven't really kicked in for THE PIPER but I hope it does well, my favorite local commercial film since GANGNAM BLUES.

Wouldn't worry about it, have heard good things! Though I am more excited for VETERAN. Was bound to get off to a good start but I really hope WOM sinks it (sorry), even though the local industry needs a hit.

The potential problem with TERMINATOR (and the rest of Lee Byung-hun's films this year) is that celebrity scandals have a negative effect of Korean box office which is far more pronounced than anything else I've ever seen. Just to mention a few recent examples, MY BRILLIANT LIFE massively underperformed last Chuseok despite two huge stars, a big director and actually being pretty damn good. The problem was that Song Hye-kyo was involved in a tax scandal and netizens tore here to shreds and definitely had a massive impact on the film's returns. Same this year with CASA AMOR: EXCLUSIVE FOR LADIES, not exactly a tentpole, but Clara's massive unpopularity following her 'lying' scandals (not sure what else you'd call them) led to a distressing 149k total. And then again during the Lunar New Year with C'EST SI BON, which was expected to do very well, but Han Hyo-joo's brother's involvement in a military bullying scandal badly tarnished her reputation. To be clear, I think all these reactions are really extreme as I think a film should speak for itself and these vendettas against celebrities are really small-minded, but it's been a pretty consistent trend. It's not like in the rest of the world, where all publicity is good publicity. In Korea, bad publicity for a star is bad for business, while inversely, negative publicity around a film's theme can sometimes turn it into an unexpected hit (SILENCED, 26 YEARS, UNBOWED, etc.). Lee Byung-hun is huge and people are really angry with him here. I bet we'll see a witch hunt mount against him in the coming weeks. I imagine it will have some effect on the box office of his films, but hopefully won't shoot them down completely.

Solid start for THE CLASSIFIED FILE. Didn't particularly care for it but I imagine it will have a strong weekend though I don't think it will have any great WOM. So-so start for THE SILENCED, which I've heard is really good (out of country now so haven't had a chance to see it yet). And the summer frame looks a but busier with Lotte finally scheduling MEMORIES OF THE SWORD. I bet they're very nervous about it and hoping that they can hop on the tailwinds of Lee Byung-hun's performance in TERMINATOR. In any case, local films should rebound nicely in late July. Very much looking forward to all three of the big Korean tentpoles!

Yeah, my top 10s of the last few years have been dominated by low-budget fare. Was particularly taken with A GIRL AT MY DOOR and A DREAM OF IRON this year. A MIDSUMMER'S FANTASIA and MADONNA, which both open in the next few weeks, are also terrific. Still love commercial cinema though! HAEMOO was easily the best mainstream Korean film of last year.

Hard to say really. The industry is certainly capable of giving audiences what they want, with their annual majority market share standing testament to this, but it's only a few films that get there. Korea gets really locked into fads, and social media has really intensified this, so there's a big gap between hits and misses. Clearly, Korean films are worse than they were... say, 9-15 years ago. Back then, the power was in the hands of the producers, and with things moving up so quickly it was a bit of a wild west time and risks were always being taken, risks which were frequently rewarded (or not, in the case of RESURRECTION OF LITTLE MATCH GIRL, and, sigh, SAVE THE GREEN PLANET). Now, companies like CJ have experience in the industry and have learnt how to control the strings. After the mini-depression of 2007-10, the power permanently shifted to financiers and executives. There are only a handful of producers who can still get stuff done, but even they lack the creative spark they once had. Where Korean cinema is thriving now, and why I won't give up on it, is the indie scene. There's so much talent out there, but of course most of their output doesn't get a shot on the national stage. Yet Korean commercial cinema will remain relevant and the industry is too advanced to relinquish much ground. Yes, the quality isn't what it used to be, but things are evolving in a way, and we'll see what form the industry takes in a few more years, with increased co-productions, and perhaps more power in the hands of the indie filmmakers (wishful thinking perhaps).

True, but it's something they've been trying to do for a while and now, instead of making 'global' projects, they've split the pipelines to create direct revenue streams in foreign markets. If we consider the very expensive Korean films (MY WAY, MR. GO, SNOWPIERCER), all were far too expensive to be reasonably expected to show a return in Korea alone. MY WAY was a dud, MR. GO did very poorly in Korea and scraped back some (but far from all) of its expenses in China, while SNOWPIERCER was a moderate success. It would have needed about 13 million admissions to break even in Korea, but it sold for about $20 million overseas, bringing the BEP down to about 7 million, beyond that it made a few bucks in China, where I think CJ distributed so I believe they would have received 1/4 of the gross (around $2.7 million). That brings the profit to somewhere around $18 million (though that's a complete guess). That's a healthy return but it was a huge undertaking that saw investors bail and CJ assume all the risk well into pre-production. Not to mention that Bong never wants to do a big project like that again. Now what we have are Korean majors setting up shop overseas and making local films. CJ's everywhere and recently made the most successful Vietnamese film of all time (LET HOI DECIDE) and they're starting to ramp up production in Thailand and Indonesia, where they now have a theater presence with CGV. The big score is China of course, where CJ had a few misses before scoring big with A WEDDING INVITATION and then the MISS GRANNY remake 20 ONCE AGAIN this year. Showbox and NEW are also busy there, while Finecut, Lotte and just about every other game in town is also trying to push in. Lots of Korean talent (directors, actors, but especially technicians) are participating in these projects, but they're not expected to see significant returns in Korea. So yeah, rather than go global, they have gone local on a global scale, and it seems to be taking them much further.

The MERS effect has indeed begun to set in, and yes mistrust of the government is the driving factor... Studio have, to some extent been trying to make safe films, but indeed they're going about it all wrong. First of, the unstoppable raft of period films is foolhardy. They're expensive, increasingly familiar and largely posting big net losses for the industry. Beyond that, the safe choices seem to be tried and true (but wearily overdone) genre pics, particularly revenge thrillers, which are also (mostly) getting hammered. What the industry has avoided has been megabudget films. No MY WAY ($30 mil), SNOWPIERCER ($40 mil) or MR. GO ($25 mil) in a few years, or even films the size of ROARING CURRENTS, ODE TO MY FATHER or THE PIRATES ($15 mil) on the horizon. NEW seemed to have the right idea in 2013, with compelling mid-level fare that led to massive profits with MIRACLE IN CELL NO. 7, NEW WORLD, MONTAGE, COLD EYES, HIDE AND SEEK and THE ATTORNEY. But since they grown a little too big for their boots and have also been unlucky. Sadly, their creative streak has badly stalled...

Decent start for SAN ANDREAS, but certainly well below similar disaster fare, which tend to be very popular in Korea. MAD MAX sadly levelling off. Not certain it'll get past 4 now, but it'll be awfully close. SPY (which was awesome) still doing well and should at least make it past 2.5. Still a poor run for Korean films with what is going to be a disastrous PERFECT PROPOSAL opening. 100k OW? That's bad news for Lim Soo-jung and CJ (who distributed this) must be very nervous for her film TIME RENEGADE, which will be out soon. And yet another fop for Yoo Yeon-seok. The industry has been trying hard to push him as a big film star but I hope they will reconsider that now, plenty of more worthy talent to get behind out there. All told 4 Korean films in Top 10 (4-7), with only 16% of the market. Outlook for local films for the rest of June is also pretty grim. June 18 will see THE CLASSIFIED FILE and SILENCED. The former should do OK, at least to start, but the movie's going to need to be pretty special to differentiate itself from all the other films it echoes. I like Kim Yun-seok a lot (as an actor at least) but Kwak Kyung-taek is a mediocre filmmaker. More excited about SILENCED (I like director LEE Hae-young [LIKE A VIRGIN/FOXY FESTIVAL], though I imagine it will flop. That leaves the incredible crowded June 24/25 release dates. NORTHERN LIMIT LINE has been delayed two weeks due to the MERS outbreak. The film should make some money, and I think NEW is desperate for a hit this summer, and delaying this also compensates for not having a high summer film. That said, the film is a DOG. I know old crowds may go for the patriotic message but it it's the worst Korean film I've seen this year, truly badly made. Maybe 2.5 million? That weekend will also have Im Sang-soo's INTIMATE ENEMIES. Interest seems low and I've heard the film isn't good so expecting low numbers. And then there's the Yongsan Tragey court drama THE UNFAIR which was completely dumped by CJ and is now being handled by Cinema Service, which, as far as I can tell, hasn't distributed a film since ATTACK THE GAS STATION 2 in 2010. There's also MADONNA, which I think is the best Korean film of the year so far. It won't be a massive release, but I'll be thrilled if it can get past 200k. Things will definitely pick up in July, but its going to be rough until then. So, MERS virus. Definitely a big deal here, though I personally think everyone is overreacting. Will it affect the box office? Probably. I think it's already doing so a little and if things get worse and people really panic we may see a big drop. Sorry for long message! Lots on my mind today.

Underestimated all the top 4 (some more than others) but at least I got the ranking right! MAD MAX should have plenty more gas left in the tank. As next week's releases won't affect it much, 3.5 million looks safe while 4 or more is very much in play.

Interesting results, 1st place for the weekend looks clear but the next few spots might be quite close. WOM certainly seems to be in MAD MAX's corner and it should have no trouble taking the weekend, I'm guessing around 600k. Best guess has the next three pulling in around 350k each, and if I were pressed to rank them I would say: 2 - SPY; 3 - CHRONICLES OF EVIL; 4 - THE TREACHEROUS.

Yeah, it's definitely similar and audiences are going to pick on that. And no, these films are losing tons. EMPIRE OF LUST must have written off at least $8 million.

Not sure if it can stay flat, but should definitely keep most of its audience. I also think it'll top the weekend. THE TREACHEROUS is not faring too well in presales, I think audiences are a touch tired of period films. Plus, it's rubbish!

Korea's still a ways behind Hollywood but definitely leading the field in Asia. Visual effect artists are in high demand, particularly in China. MR. GO (a Showbox title which was co-produced with Chinese studio Huyai Bros) launched the VFX company Dexter Studios (founded by Jung Sung-jin and the film's director Kim Yong-hwa) which is now one of the major players for Chinese blockbuster effects. They've worked on YOUNG DETECTIVE DEE, THE MONKEY KING (the gorilla in that is the same design as MR. GO) and THE TAKING OF TIGER MOUNTAIN. And they're just one of many companies, as an example, THE MONKEY KING employed the services of 11 Korean VFX outfits. Another revealing stat is that last year the Korean film industry made more money exporting its VFX services than it did selling its films around the world...

It's always very hard to foresee the next 10 million hit for Korea (expect for AGE OF ULTRON, as safe a bet as we've seen). For foreign films, the most likely contender (baring surprise runs) is probably MI5, but I don't really see that happening. I don't think STAR WARS will come close, it's a property with little mileage in Korea, though it will certainly do well. Most likely it'll be another Korean film. VETERAN has a slight shot, I've heard it's very good and Hwang Jung-min is hot off ODE TO MY FATHER. You can't count out Choi Dong-hoon and his new film ASSASSINATION looks like another winner with an array of popular stars. The combination of director Lee Joon-ik, Song Kang-ho and a story everyone knows will likely make THE THRONE the biggest Joseon Era film of the year (I'm guessing it's bow during Chuseok). Plenty of other local films could click, but those seem like the most surefire successes for the moment.