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Posts posted by TStechnij
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I could see Love and Friendshup picking up a couple noms considering how weak the early race is. Things will pop up, but for right now -- jeez.
I'd say it could score these noms in order of likeliness--
Costume Design
Adapted Screenplay (I think writers could really geek out about this.)
Production Design
Best Actress-Beckinsale (Could win the comedy globe.)
Best Supporting Actor-Bennett
Best Picture
Kate and the costumes will probably be on my personal ballot.
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Red Turtle is going to win this and get a score nomination.
I've heard rumors that Finding Dory isn't great and am expecting it to falter -- has Disney ever landed three here?
1. Red Turtle
2. Moana
3. Zootopia
4. Kubo and the Two Strings
5. April and the Extraordinary World
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I've heard from test screenings that this is really awful.
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Carol snubs are the only disappointing ones.
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4 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:
I got 98 correct out of the 121 noms! 81%!
I don't do GD. I meant of what BOT predicted, so I sit around 81.4% too!
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On the game I got 79 correct and 7 of my alts, which I think is really good. But, the best film of the year being snubbed and the worst film of the year coming home with 12 noms makes me feel like a loser.
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Best Picture
01. The Big Short
02. Bridge of Spies
03. Brooklyn
04. Carol
05. Mad Max: Fury Road
06. The Martian
07. The Revenant
08. Spotlight
Alts: 09. Room
10. Sicario
Best Directing
01. Todd Haynes, Carol
02. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
03. Adam McKay, The Big Short
04. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
05. Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alt: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Best Actor in a Leading Role
01. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
02. Matt Damon, The Martian
03. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
04. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
05. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Alt: Steve Carrell, The Big Short
Best Actress in a Leading Role
01. Cate Blanchett, Carol
02. Brie Larson, Room
03. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
04. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
05. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Alt: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
01. Christian Bale, The Big Short
02. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
03. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
04. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
05. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Alt: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
01. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
02. Rooney Mara, Carol
03. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
04. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
05. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alt: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
01. Bridge of Spies
02. Ex Machina
03. The Hateful Eight
04. Inside Out
05. Spotlight
Alt: Sicario
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
01. The Big Short
02. Brooklyn
03. Carol
04. Room
05. Steve Jobs
Alt: The Martian
Best Animated Feature
01. Anomalisa
02. The Good Dinosaur
03. Inside Out
04. The Peanuts Movie
05. Shaun the Sheep
Alt: The Prophet
Best Music (Original Score)
01. Bridge of Spies
02. Carol
03. The Hateful Eight
04. Spotlight
05. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Inside Out
Best Music (Original Song)
01. Earned It, Fifty Shades of Grey
02. See You Again, Furious 7
03. Simple Song #3, Youth
04. Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
05. Writing’s on the Wall, Spectre
Alt: The Light That Never Fails, Meru
Best Film Editing
01. The Big Short
02. Mad Max: Fury Road
03. The Martian
04. The Revenant
05. Spotlight
Alt: Bridge of Spies
Best Cinematography
01. Bridge of Spies
02. Carol
03. Mad Max: Fury Road
04. The Revenant
05. Sicario
Alt: The Hateful Eight
Best Art Direction
01. Bridge of Spies
02. Carol
03. The Danish Girl
04. Mad Max: Fury Road
05. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: The Martian
Best Costume Design
01. Carol
02. Cindererlla
03. Crimson Peak
04. The Danish Girl
05. Mad Max: Fury Road
Alt: The Revenant
Best Makeup
01. Black Mass
02. Mad Max: Fury Road
03. The Revenant
Alt: The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
Best Sound Mixing
01. Mad Max: Fury Road
02. The Martian
03. The Revenant
04. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
05. Straight Outta Compton
Alt: Bridge of Spies
Best Sound Editing
01. Mad Max: Fury Road
02. The Martian
03. The Revenant
04. Sicario
05. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Bridge of Spies
Best Visual Effects
01. Jurassic World
02. Mad Max: Fury Road
03. The Martian
04. The Revenant
05. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Ant ManBonus!
Best Foreign Language Film 01. The Brand New Testament 02. Mustang 03. Son of Saul 04. Viva 05. A War Best
Documentary Feature 01. Amy 02. Cartel Land 03. He Named Me Malala 04. Listen to Me Marlon 05. The Look of Silence
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40 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Picture: PGA
Actress: The last 2 spots are a question mark
Supporting Actor: This category is a mess, but with Sicario rising at the guilds Del Toro is back in the conversation
Original Screenplay: The fifth spot is a question mark and H8ful is getting weaker
PGA can't be used on its own for very obvious reasons. Especially when it is missing Carol. If the only hype that can be mustered for Sicario for BP is because of PGA and guild support, which IS the only hype that can be mustered, then it isn't getting nominated. It is textbook definition of a film that does well with guilds and falters at the Oscars.
And Blunt in actress... That's ridiculous. Lawrence is fine and no one is desperate enough for Blunt. Rampling, Mara, Vikander, Smith and even Schumer are ahead of her. Like... I can't even imagine where this idea comes from. She has three mentions from hodunk critic groups and that is all (in the US). Also, for Blunt to even be in the conversation means that the movie really didn't work, because the whole purpose of her character is to be submissive and that isn't what The Academy goes for. Even with a Globe nom, she wouldn't be happening and she couldn't even get that. Even Cotillard hit one precursor last year and she had Fonda campaigning for her. Blunt doesn't care about the Oscar and no one does. It is deader than Joy in Best Picture.
Hitting BAFTA alone never has only equaled a nom for Riva in past years, which was a foreign film and never going to do well at the Globes/SAG/BFCA (sometimes even ineligible). And Sicario isn't Amour, which was top five best picture with a directing nom. Del Toro probably won't happen, but could be a surprise.
Once again, Sicario has 6 screenplay mentions from hodunk critic orgs. Compare the to Ex Machina's BAFTA nod, BFCA nod, BIFA nod and a ton of critic mentions.
So, no Sicario isn't going to break out big at the Oscars. And it surely isn't an alternate for best director.
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Can someone explain why they would put Sicario in anything besides cinematog, editing and sound?
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Sicario is strictly a guild play and Blunt hasn't happened anywhere. It just isn't happening.
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Spotlight is still the frontrunner... And Bridge of Spies is locked at 5th or 6th. It has overperformed at EVERY precursors.
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I'm thinking:
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Revenant
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Brooklyn
Outside chances
Room, followed by Trumbo, followed by Straight outta Compton followed by Sicario
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So, Rampling missing BAFTA is clearly huge, but I have no idea what the hell is going to happen here?
I'm starting to wonder if it could go:
Larson
Brie
Blanchett
Lawrence
Vikander, TDG
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24 minutes ago, Kalo said:
He is amazing. and he played in TFA, The Revenant and Ex Machina all this year! not to mention Brooklyn which I have yet to see.. holy shit everyone of those films could be getting nominated for BP this year.
Sorry love. Only two of those have a shot, but they are both pretty assured.
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15 minutes ago, Gopher said:
One of the worst I saw this year imho. The overwhelming SUFFERING Innaritu wants for Leo and the AWE he wants the audience to have is laughable. Everything's for show, every shot is intended to call attention to itself and he's got no story or character to back it up. Worthless garbage. And fwiw Birdman made my top 10 last year.
Gopher, I fucking love you. I feel our top tens of last year and this year are so in line too!
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6 minutes ago, Gopher said:
Gold Derby's list is wack. BOS isn't gaining any traction outside of Rylance. I don't think Revenant is a sure thing either.
If I had to guess now -
Carol
Spotlight
The Martian
Mad Max
The Big Short
Room
Brooklyn
Revenant (fringe)
TFA (fringe)
Straight Outta Compton (SAG nom + major calls for diversity lead me to think this one could make it in)
The Revenant is just too OMG DIRECTORIAL AND ARTISIC FEAT to
miss. Bridge of Spies is still ahead of SOC and has hit some of the minor precursors. The Academy probably won't forget it.
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6 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:
Has anyone else here actually seen Carol / give a crap about it? We watched it the other night. Basically all I got out of it was that I'm supposed to like it because it's about lesbian romance. I tend to prefer a bit more X-rated material when I'm watching lesbian content, personally. LOL, j/k. I just ask myself, "If this were a traditional romance, would I care?" The answer is no. Then again, I don't care at all about romance movies. I'm a Nazi with that. I don't even think "romance" is a genre, I think it's an element of a film. It should be a romantic comedy or romance in an action film or a drama with romance. Carol failed on all levels for me. It was supremely boring and didn't engage me at all. The best scene had boobies, that's about it.
Carol is a fucking masterpiece. Every part of it is well intentioned and all of the technical elements are amazing. Best cinematography, production design and costumes of the year. It is perfect and totally a piece of art.
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2 minutes ago, Blan Solo said:
Hmm, interesting. It's a bit more dense than the typical DOR, but her comment about the crowd is weird. My crowd was near sold out and had a lot of laughs throughout it. I think it'll have good WOM despite its oddities.
I think it's interesting to look at it more as a deconstruction of a soap opera (and I believe that's what Russell's aiming for), but whatever made you like it is still good. I think it'll be under-appreciated around here.
Also agree! I think he was taking from both types of storytelling. I'm just more familiar with fairytales and my thesis is stronger haha.
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Just now, Blan Solo said:
It's actually very in line with yours surprisingly. Like I thought I didn't like it much at first, but now I think it could've been O. Russell's masterpiece if it had a little bit more time in the editing room and some reshoots. Definitely better than AH, on par with SLP (SLP is a more consistent film but Joy has a lot more interesting stuff going on).
I've been saying that it works so much better if you watch it as a fairytale about a woman's impowerment. You can turn the other way about the messiness if you think of it as a bare-bone archetypal, almost mythish story. I'm glad you liked it, it is the feel good movie of the year for me.
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1 minute ago, Blan Solo said:
When I saw Joy today, the audience was talking more about Star Wars than Joy before the movie started lol. Probably because the next three showings had already sold out by the time I arrived for Joy (a half hour before showtime)
Thoughts?
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7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
Okay, what made MMXXL such a great movie?
I mean, it is shot by Soderbergh, who is a great cinematographer with an extensive array of accolades. It is some of the best ensemble work of the year from Tatum to Mangialleno to Smith.
It also feels fresh and new because it is so inclusive. It makes no spectacle of its gay audience and even embraces them in parts.
Otherwise, it is uncompromising entertainment. It is just great. And I'm not the only one who thinks this-- high brow critics are giving it a ton of list mentions and attention.
I'm writing a series of pieces about films that got tepid response that absolutely don't deserve it: MMXXL, Joy, Youth and Saint Laurent are the first four of the yer.
And it is even entertaining for straight men. One of my butchest, cinephile, man friends has it at number five for the year, even ahead of MMFR. It is a total masterpiece.
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I know it is about 11 pages back, but has anyone actually seen MMXXL? Because, no joke, it is one of the best movies of the year.
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3 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:
What kind of innuendo is this?
Damn, you are young.
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2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
Maybe they mean in total rather than just Star Wars.
That's exactly what they mean.
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Best Screenplays 2016 (Original and Adapted)
in And The Winner Is...
Posted
Lion is supposed to be awful. Screened on TWC's yacht during Cannes and my friends heard people talking about how bad it was throughout the whole festival. The Austrailain Film Comission were promoting every film they had and explicitly didn't promote Lion.
It tested more than a year ago and people didn't like it then either. I think it is keeping its release date so that TWC looks like less of a mess.