KP1025
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Posts posted by KP1025
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27 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:
So after Mario, how long do you guys think we'll have to wait untill the third animated movie over $500M domestic? My bet is on Frozen 3 or Shrek 5 so between two and three years, maybe Toy Story 5 depending on if the story they sell on the trailers looks like another movie (still will make money) or there's an actual hook like what Dreamworks is doing with Kung Fu Panda.
Frozen 3 could do it, but they need to reverse the negative perception of Disney+ first before any Pixar or WDAS film can reach those heights again. Too many familes are content waiting a few months to watch their films for free on Disney+. If the window were extended to at least 6 months, maybe that could start to shift things back to the way they were.
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So Japan will definitely overtake Mexico to become Mario's #1 OS market and by a comfortable margin too. As it should be.
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Just now, Issac Newton said:
No sure but after OPR &Suzume success, I feel like August &November are a lot safer months for WOM pulling works - lesser traffic than GW &Summer Days.
What's the next biggest film in terms of competition for Mario? I think it should have a pretty open run unless The Little Mermaid breaks out.
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4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
IM3 wasn't good, so I was glad it lost out to the better movies that were CF and Frozen.
Me too. Especially the huge and completely unexpected breakout that was Frozen.
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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I did forget how well IM3 did on the OS front. There were plenty of people who expected $500+ DOM though after TA, I remember that very vividly.
Some people were also disappointed that it lost the 2013 domestic crown to Catching Fire and OS/WW to Frozen.
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That would be a brutal drop for Mario if estimates hold (they will almost certainly go up as it's Deadline), but it also shows just how much it's benefited from having zero competition for a whole month.
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Yesterday, Super Mario cleared $1.52M at 4,204 theaters, -23% from Wednesday for a fourth week of $49.5M.
Thursday update for Mario from Deadline
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2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
GOTG3 started with 9.5 at Chinese Rating Site "Maoyan" defeating Sony's "Spider-Man: No Way Home"
Some critics are calling it the best MCU release since "Avengers: Endgame"
Could have had a $200+ million run in China if released in 2019.
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2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
So when is Super Mario officially crossing 500m?
Friday unless Thursday increases, which is unlikely due to GotG3 previews taking screens.
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Just now, Mr Roark said:
Avatar 3 will easily break the $2B mark, again.
The Seed Bearer is not the title, yet at least…
I think Avatar 3 could even increase from the second. The scale of it is supposed to be even more amazing, plus hopefully China will have no impediments to the run next time.
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35 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
A movie with an upcoming potential $25M+ weekend getting a digital release already would be wild. Illumination needs to rethink their strategy for their mega blockbusters.
People that buy it on May 9th are still going to buy it a month later. Digital needs to be moved to June at least.
But there is still a rumor of it being delayed. I guess we will know for sure when May 9 arrives and we get nothing.
It doesn't seem like the digital release has much of an effect on box office, especially for animated films. Minions 2 and Puss in Boots continued to have excellent holds even after they were available for purchase. It's the free release to a streaming platform that kills the legs.
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Friday is Children's Day so makes sense Mario would get a huge boost as the premier movie to take the kids.
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Nice, so Friday could be the biggest day for Mario after all.
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37 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Zootopia did do very well there, though the political landscape has definitely changed in a post-covid environment. In the right circumstances though I could see the immigration themes resonating, and perhaps in other East Asian countries as well.
True, there is some precedent for this to break out there. Soul grossed almost $60 million in China despite having a pirated HD copy out Day 1 and releasing in the heart of the pandemic. Probably could have had a Coco/Zootopia-esque run otherwise.
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Yeah, I would guess maybe $10 million in China since it's coming out same day as The Flash. Western animation usually doesn't play too well, especially original films. Even Mario barely crossed $20 million there despite being big almost everywhere else.
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Second Friday should be much bigger than OD Friday, but I'm not sure how much Saturday and Sunday are expected to drop.
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Now that's the kind of window Disney should be giving to all their major releases before dropping on Disney+
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27 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
Also will Mario be the last animated movie to make a billion for a while?
At least until Despicable Me 4 next year. Illumination keeps winning!
I think DM4 finishes in the $900 million range like Minions 2. Maybe a bit lower since that overperformed domestically compared to DM3.
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4 minutes ago, DisposedData said:
Wait why is this? Is this typical for golden week?
Combination of a national holiday and a discount day. I believe Corpse said Wednesday was likely going to be the biggest day this week for that reason, at least in admissions.
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5 minutes ago, DisposedData said:
1.5b still seems more realistic than 1.2b
Oh definitely, $1.2 billon would require a complete collaspe of its excellent legs thus far. $1.3 billion should be the floor with DOM close to $600 million and OS over $700 million.
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4 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
$1.5 billion ceiling is quite optimistic. I guess it's possible if Japan pulls a Frozen and goes over $200 million.
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4 minutes ago, Austin said:
Should this entire week be inflated due to GW?
Here's what Corpse posted about Golden Week recently.
QuoteThere are 4 national holidays starting with Saturday this week, schools are out, etc., so the numbers are going to be higher than normal for its first 7-10 days in release.
It's important to keep in mind it's opening over one of the three major holiday periods of the year before trying to project a possible finish from that since it's going to add some degree of frontloading.
Golden Week 2023
Sat.: April 29th (Showa Day-National Holiday)
Sun.: April 30th
Mon.: May 1st (Discount Day, Aeon Cinemas Day)
Tues.: May 2nd (Pseudo-Holiday before a National Holiday)
Wed.: May 3rd (Constitution Day-National Holiday, Toho Cinemas Day)
Thur.: May 4th (Greenery Day-National Holiday)
Fri.: May 5th (Children's Day-National Holiday)
And Sat/Sun next week will also be a little stronger than normal since the last weekend of a major holiday period is usually boosted from people going to the theaters before going back to school/work again.-
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19 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
Absolutely massive start in Japan, took down Frozen 2s opening (and 2x Frozen 1). If Mario has legs like non-sequel Japanese breakouts can often have, this is going to be an extremely exciting box office run there. Knew Japan was gonna show up for such a cultural icon.
Actuals are out now, and looks like Universal overestimated Mario's opening in Japan. Frozen 2 still holds the Hollywood animated opening record, but Mario will gain quite a bit of ground on that comp with the huge holiday week ahead.
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20 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
So 550m DOM and 650m OS is looking good rn?
Both are locked. DOM should be closer to $600 million and OS should go over $700 million.
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THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 787.1M overseas | 1362.0M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
$800 million OS seems quite likely now. Japan has at least another $50 million left, and remaining markets can add over $100 million. Could get close to $1.4 billion WW depending how far Japan goes. It will have to pick up a bit of slack now that domestic isn't looking to hit $600 million.