KP1025
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Posts posted by KP1025
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1 minute ago, DTP said:
Does Japan have a shot at beating Mexico?
It's locked. Should hit $100 million or at least very close to it.
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Is there another pseudo school holiday or event for Mario? It's up 50% over the already inflated Monday last week. Conan also up too to a lesser degree.
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45 minutes ago, Mulder said:
Drops for GoTG 3 and Mario are both really good.
I had a quick look, and it seems there were double features for Mario with Fast X. That would explain why it actually increased on Thursday while everything else dropped pretty hard from the screen loss. The hold this weekend is also softer than I would expect against an opener of this size, especially one that has a high Latino share of audience too.
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52 minutes ago, M37 said:
They were probably comparing weekend to weekend, and not factoring in summer weekdays (and weak competition in August)
Minions made $18M on 7/29 week, then made $41 mil more. Mario made $16.5 last week, needs $61M for $600. More likely $570-$580
Minions 2 also benefited from a big Labor Day boost on its 10th weekend, increasing almost 30% FSS from previous weekend. Mario has MDW coming up, but it will be very lucky simply avoiding a big drop against TLM.-
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Really surprised by the complete lack of interest in TLM. Disney live-action remakes have never done huge numbers in China, but they also have never bombed either. Beauty and the Beast grossed $85 million, Aladdin grossed $53 million, and TLK grossed $120 million. TLM really cannot attract even a small percentage of that audience to come back?
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Jurassic World is still very solid and much better than JP3 for me. Not nearly as well crafted as the original, but it is just such a fun romp from start to finish. It's the only one from the new trilogy I care to rewatch.
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12 minutes ago, eXtacy said:
Better question. Will we see 9 films do a billion dollars at again like in 2019. This year might only have mario, maybe one other.
Probably not for a very long time, at least until inflation makes $1 billion more commonplace. 2019 was incredibly stacked thanks to Disney deciding to drop all their biggest blockbusters in succession. The number of remaining franchises that can guarantee a gross over $1 billion are pretty low now.
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Just now, JustLurking said:
If TLM doesn't breakout in JP then Disney may as well have left the market. I do not think any other film they have in the pipeline will breakout all the way until maybe Frozen3. And even that may underperform heavily.
I think Disney's prospects there will continue to be depressed unless they fundamentally change Disney+. Something like at least 6+ months of exclusivity from the actual release date in market (not from the global launch). What's strange is how Disney isn't even trying to salvage its traditionally biggest OS market (they must be aware how much money they are leaving on the table). Disney should just sell distribution rights to Toho like Universal at this point.
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5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
There are some hurdles in Japan.
1. Disney has royally fucked their standing in the market. Their films have been bombing left right and center since the start of covid. Their relationship with JP theaters has been terrible and they straight up even got boycotted for a while a couple years back when they tried to ask for a bigger share for their films. They also had a period where all their films would get dropped from theaters after a month due to quick j+ releases.
2. Hollywood in general has not been doing super great.
3. No star power whatsoever. I think Halle looks really good in the trailers but she is a nobody in JP. Both BaTb and Aladdin had big names in Japan (Watson and Smith). There's no one here.
4. Black-led films don't typically do well in japan. The only known black star here is pretty much Will Smith.
Also and the most obvious one of all, the yen is fucked. Even if it matches Aladdin/BatB in yen it's automatically losing 20M. But I think matching these 2 is really tough already. I don't think it will bomb here though. That would be terrible for Disney. I hope it can do 7-8b atleast.
Agreed. I think in leggy markets like SK and Japan, the presence of Disney+ itself is also a big detriment to the box office. These are markets where audiences don't mind waiting months to see a film in theaters, especially Japan. Now that audiences have been conditioned to expect a theatrical release to drop on streaming within 3 months, I think a sizeable portion have decided they would just wait to watch for free (even more so if reviews are not amazing). This seems to affect family films disproportionately too due to the price of taking a family to the movies. Before the advent of streaming platforms, you either bought tickets to watch a film in theaters or bought the Blu-ray/DVD 3-6 months later.
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14 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
That is good to know. But if that is the case then OS expectations for this film need to be recalibrated since both BatB and Aladdin did great in Asia (making 230 and 250M in JP-Cn-SK alone). Maybe TLM can play well in JP but I don't see it match aladdin/batb and the yen is in a terrible spot.
In theory, fairly tale musicals should have great WOM in both SK and Japan (I believe that's why Aladdin and the Frozens did so well there). But then again, Beauty and the Beast grossed much less than Aladdin in SK despite having a similar performance in Japan.
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9 hours ago, Mojoguy said:
Excellent drop for Mario. The upcoming drop this WE should be good, Fast X has different audience from Mario.
I'm not sure about that. The largest demographic for Mario was also young, male, and Latino. There's a lot of crossover appeal with the Fast & Furious audience.
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1 minute ago, grim22 said:
This is kind of wild to think about, especially when you consider that Furious 7 broke out big in the US
Looks like that streak dies with Fast X since forecasts are predicting not too much higher than $100 million in China.
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I wonder if the rumored abrupt ending of Fast X will result in poor WOM. The trailer doesn't sell the film as just a Part 1 of now a trilogy.
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16 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
someone in the eiga replies said some schools had compensatory holiday yesterday and thats why it held so well
That explains the big surge in the morning which died off by the late afternoon.
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2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
maybe some theaters announced that premium shows will go to fast x in a couple days and so people are going out to see if before they lose the screens?
That could also explain why Conan is seeing an increase too, albeit a small one. The increase for Mario seems too big to be just regular stabilization, but I could be wrong. -
15 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
About 240m away from Frozen 2 for animated movie record, this weekend globally was ~39m might be 40 with actuals so needs 6x weekend from here to beat it, i'd pencil in another $50-60m or so from japan so needs 180m from other markets, will be fun to track
I think max $50 million more from Japan, more likely $40 million (which would be a finish just over Frozen 2’s ¥13.37 billion). Domestic probably another $40 million too. OS-Japan was about $18 million this weekend so maybe $60 million more there factoring heavy competition incoming. -
1 minute ago, thajdikt said:
What was friday gross if anyone knows?
$1,184,982, total up to $17,144,971.
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9 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
What does this mean?
x = 100% Sold Out △= 90% Sold Out ○ = 50% Sold Out
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That math doesn't add up for Mario. $1 million Thursday would give it $522.9 million total and a weekly of $23.3 million.
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1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:
Highest Grossing Western Animation Film
Distributor Title Release Date Gross Disney Frozen 2014.03.14 ¥25.48B Disney Frozen II 2019.11.22 ¥13.37B Buena Vista Finding Nemo 2003.12.06 ¥11.00B Disney Toy Story 3 2010.07.10 ¥10.80B Disney Toy Story 4 2019.07.12 ¥10.09B Toho-Towa The Super Mario Bros. Movie 2023.04.28 ¥10.00B Buena Vista Monster Inc 2002.03.02 ¥9.37B Disney Baymax 2014.12.20 ¥9.18B Disney Monster University 2013.07.06 ¥8.96B Disney Zootopia 2016.04.23 ¥7.63B Toho-Towa Despicable Me 3 2017.07.21 ¥7.31B Disney Finding Dory 2016.07.16 ¥6.83B Disney The Incredibles 2004.12.04 ¥5.26B Toho-Towa Minions 2015.07.31 ¥5.21B Disney Moana 2017.03.10 ¥5.16B Toho-Towa Sing 2017.03.17 ¥5.11B Disney Up 2009.12.05 ¥5.00B Disney Coco 2018.03.16 ¥5.00B Frozen should be ¥25.5B
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25 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
I knew fast X was going to collapse in China. Fast9 was just too hated.
Hard to believe this is the same franchise that had two films gross almost $400 million in China back to back.
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I wonder how they will explain Li Bingbing's absence in this. Looks like the daughter of her character is still in the film.
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16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
But we haven't had a packed summer without a "winner" since the pandemic, either. TGM just sucked the life out of the summer last year, with the 2 MCUs (and Minions for family) taking the rest.
Don't forget JWD, which was technically the second biggest that summer as it was the only other film besides TGM to cross $1 billion WW.
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12 minutes ago, upriser7 said:
I am really curios about the Monday number
EC has hinted that Monday's number looks promising
Actuals are out and it doesn't look like Disney lowballed the revised weekend estimate at all.
Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days May 4, 2023 P $17,500,000 0 $17,500,000 May 5, 2023 1 $48,103,839 4,450 $10,810 $48,103,839 1 May 6, 2023 1 $38,876,290 -19% 4,450 $8,736 $86,980,129 2 May 7, 2023 1 $31,433,892 -19% 4,450 $7,064 $118,414,021 3 -
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The Little Mermaid | Disney | May 26, 2023 | Queen Halle will rule the summer!
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I doubt reviews will matter for this since people know exactly what they're getting. Aladdin and TLK were both rotten and still grossed over $1 billion and $1.6 billion WW respectively.