LinksterAC
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Posts posted by LinksterAC
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O/U on weeks until A:WoW weekends are higher than AMQ weekends?
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The schadenfreude in here is palpable.
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Titanic is far from my favorite film, though I do think it’s fantastic.
That said, I don’t think there’s any denying that it’s, to this point, the zenith of its medium globally. Comes close to equaling Star Wars in the West, but blows it away everywhere else.
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3 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:
Oh I didn't take into account inflation! I keep forgetting how truly wild Titanic's run was. Thanks
Imagine if this December 15-ish a movie opened domestically to a 60M weekend & didn't have a weekend below:
60M until mid-January
50M until mid-February
30M until the beginning of April
For those few of us who tracked this stuff back in '97, it was absolutely unfathomable.
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5 hours ago, shruth said:
? more like lebron. Titanic's longevity and lebron's is an apt comparison
Nah. It’s not about the longevity, of which Jordan had plenty, it was the total dominance over contemporaries.
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37 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:
Titanic’s $26M 25 years ago still blows my mind.
That run was the Michael Jordan of box office runs.
So far beyond its contemporaries in so many ways as to beggar belief.
If you inflation-adjust that thing it's just ludicrous.
As a grade school aged Star Wars fan in 97/98, I absolutely despised Titanic because of how categorically superior its BO was.
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14 minutes ago, Torontofan said:
covid is still an issue to like 10-15% of the population (especially in places that did many covid rules like NYC, cali and canada) still dont go out as much as before and still worried.
Add in that covid drastically expanded use of streaming to many groups so many poeple dont see the point of seeing smaller scale films in theaters.
Like in many markets there is now this trend of "this is a movie for streaming then theaters"
Like why I would 18 bucks to watch avatar and 18 bucks for some generic comedy that be on streaming in 2 months.
Good post, though I'll make the following comment:
I live & travel all over COVID hypochondriac USA (the USA West Coast) & I doubt it's even 10 to 15 percent at this point. If it is, it seems very possible to me it's comprised of people who probably were homebodies before COVID anyway. I doubt COVID *itself* is affecting moviegoing habits.
That said, this doesn't mean habits didn't change during the pandemic for many. Along those lines, I do think that the rest of your post makes a lot of sense. I think there's a good chance that a strata of films (romcoms, character driven dramas) that people are less likely to go see in the movies now due to the reasoning you illustrate. But for other films (tentpole spectacles, kid's films), that reasoning seems considerably less relevant, & I doubt there is a significant effect on moviegoing habits.
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43 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:
It is because it changed people’s habits.It may have, but it's unclear to me that this has had an effect on the ceiling for tentpole films.
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1 hour ago, Jonan23 said:
But is Covid still a factor now? Aren't we already in the timeline where Covid is a thing of the past. The only country whose grosses were really affected by Covid is China.
You don't understand, it would have made 1.1B in China if not for COVID.
Ahem.
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The A2 run gets a ton of attention, deservedly, but I rejoice that PiB & M3GAN are having very sexy little runs of their own.
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17 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:
I am not that surprised at the big jump, seeing the exact same pattern over here. Mediocre weekdays, so-so Friday, incredible Saturday and a quite good Sunday. Expecting this to get more and more like this the longer the run goes.
Great numbers overall as well.
Many of us said several weeks ago that the runtime would create this dynamic.
I, like you, am not at all surprised. Just look at the runs of previous films with similar runtimes.
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10 hours ago, XXR the Conqueror said:
Fucking Chargers man.
As a San Diegan, I am in the enviable position of being content (though not elated) that they won when they win, & equally content that Dean Spanos lost when they lose.
I hope he’s crying into his coffee today.
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9 hours ago, MikeQ said:
IToo bad Titanic and Way of Water aren't the same studio, otherwise I'd suggest they get on that "double feature" marketing for when Titanic opens. "This Valentine's Day, experience two of James Cameron's cinematic masterpieces on the big screen... one about family and the other about love...
And be at the theater for 8 hours plus! 😬
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1 hour ago, stuart360 said:
If the NFL games really do have the effect some poeple say on here, it makes you wonder what kind of weekend numbers A2 would be having if there was no football.
Would the NFL schedule of been the same back in 2009 with the first AVATAR?.
I have doubts the NFL playoff games really do have a marginal effect vs the regular season until the Super Bowl, but I honestly haven’t researched it too deeply.
Yes, they get insane viewership numbers, but there’s also very few of them & zero college games, so I wonder how much of that is just moving the same eyeballs from a vast array of games to a handful of games instead.
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2 hours ago, XXR the Conqueror said:
It’s important for everyone to keep in mind when making a prediction for this weekend that it’ll be the start of the NFL playoffs. We’ve got 2 games Saturday and 4 on Sunday. They will each pull at least 25M viewers and potentially upwards of 40M for the prime slots.
But zero college football games.
Not sure if it’s easy to ascertain, but we may want to look at the marginal difference in the trade off.
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12 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:
That list is extremely out of date. ATP in 2022 is about 18-20% higher than in 2019.
Thanks, friends!
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1 minute ago, M37 said:
Again, domestically at least (I don't really follow WW #s), they don't, only that reduced audience pool is being masked by the large increase in ticket prices, making grosses from pre- and post-pandemic periods mostly comparable. But in terms of admissions, still way down from pre-pandemic levels
Wait, this is confusing me.
Were TGM ticket prices inflated compared to 2019? What about NWH v FFH?
When I look at the AOI list on the-numbers it doesn’t seem like ticket price inflation has been a big factor since as far back as 2015 (Rogue One gets a very minor bump from then to now).
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2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Again to go DOOMER mode, who says China ever recovers
China is slowly coming out of its COVID trance, & that should help the BO.
But there are a lot of demographic & economic headwinds independent of that which may have a pretty depressive effect on the BO going forward.
I’ll be watching it with interest.
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2 minutes ago, M37 said:
We don't "know", but there is now 18+ months of data showing weakness in the market, and not really much evidence of it snapping back over the last year
I think the most accurate assessment is that the bar for being willing to spend on theatrical has been raised by the behavior shift, and at a top level, can still mostly meet pre-pandemic levels .... with like 25% higher ATP so 25% less audience, but similar $ value
But below that top line, particularly for animation, drama/awards & even generic action, they are nowhere near the level of pre-pandemic. There's too much similar content available to make it worth the investment of time and money
I think that there is *some* evidence of it snapping back: namely, when a must-see movie hits, people still go out at pre-pandemic rates (NWH, TGM). (Again, with the exception of China). And A2 qualifies as one of those films.
For me, that makes it hard to argue that A2 is functioning with this particular handicap. Though the other types of films you mentioned may be. I haven’t really looked into them.
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3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
Agreed, sadly this is the type of sitation we'll be debating forever how it could've been. The same goes for MCU without China in the past movies.
I would like to see some Avatar in it's full potential, which didn't happen with A2.
A3 and A4 will probably drop on grosses (not by very much like some people expect, but still a drop). But i'm hoping Cameron plan is strong enough so we can see a climax hype for A5, maybe with this one we can see a run similar to what A2 could've been in a better situation.
One thing to remember is that 2009 was almost ideal for A1. Peak globalization in terms of the general economy, slow economy (thus, increased moviegoing), & absolutely killer FOREX in dollar terms. (The Forex thing totally bothers me when comparing WW runs for films, because it really can give a film a 20% boost over another for no reason other than an accounting decisions).
All that said, A2 is having a phenomenal, leggy run & because of that, I’m not convinced A3 & A4 will perform worse. In many ways, the public is reacquainting with this franchise after a 13 year absence, & I think that could lower the ceiling on this run. But it’s being very well received & will act as recent advertising for A3 in a couple years. Do you remember what happened with the LOTR movies?
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8 minutes ago, M37 said:
That’s not the relevant dynamic though. People aren’t skipping theaters because of fear of COVID, but that the necessary response to the pandemic - staying at home - changed people’s behavior to some degree permanently (IMO, accelerating a shift that was coming in 5-10 years anyway). They got used to streaming, and now the time and cost commitment of theaters is less attractive
No, we don’t don’t know that behavior has permanently changed in a way that’s detrimental to any given movie.
By your reasoning, TGM & NWH should have had even bigger runs, & frankly, I don’t see solid ground for that argument.
IOW, people being more used to streaming in general doesn’t mean that Movie A would have done better in 2019 than in 2022. In fact, on the contrary, it seems like the biggest blockbusters are just as big (if not bigger) than ever.
Edit:
The exception here is China, of course, where there are still policies in place that reduce the consumption of movies at the cinema.
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6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
Yes, it will gross 220M and about ~30M admissions
When the presales started, it was pointing to 700M total at the high end, before everything collapses.
So it would be over 90M admissions there, add Russia which is also lost due the war, there it is ~100M admissions, plus the 220-230M it will made outside of that.
Honestly, the way things are, complaining about a movie selling "just" 260M tickets is insane, especially comparing with a completely different franchise like MCU at its peak. And Covid is still an excuse, because it would sell ~320M tickets if it wasn't for Covid.
I’m not about to say that’s impossible. I certainly think it’s a *possibility*, but I’m also not going to take it for granted like you are.
Seems also possible to me that China would have ended up being as little 1.5X the rate it’s running now. Mainly because China is trying its post-2020 darndest to reopen right now.
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1 minute ago, Godzilla said:
It's gonna surpass Titanic.
That was my global O/U line before its run started. Fun to see the over looking very likely.
My O/U domestically was TGM…and that’s looking more like an over with each passing day.
Great run. Really impressive for a direct sequel to a 13 year old movie.
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Who else thinks there’s a great chance A2’s Sunday hold is really strong and we’re looking at something like 11.7, 20.5, 16 & 48M after actuals?
April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Might be interesting if they can somehow pull off a mute Link. I've really enjoyed having other characters' responses to him explain his thoughts. It could be fun & fresh.