LinksterAC
-
Posts
681 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by LinksterAC
-
-
1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:
Are you saying that global cinema is back to pre-covid strength?
I could have lost arm arm PAST TENSE, and it still be gone
That’s not the question I think we should be asking.
The question I’m asking is: is COVID likely to affect people’s ability &/or decision making about going to the movies?
My answer: not more than any number of respiratory viruses that prevented people from seeing movies every year.
With the exception of China, of course.
-
1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:
Charlie, the purple user who thinks Endgame was more impressive than Avatar (2009). Very strange honestly.
I don’t think it’s strange.
I don’t know that I think EG’s run was more impressive. I’d say similarly impressive.
But I can see people favoring one or the other.
-
3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Charlie, our resident box office expert forgetting that a global pandemic happened. Lovely
Note that the word “happen” is in the past tense.
-
1 minute ago, Fanboy said:
Didn't get an answer to this and would like to know, something to do with holidays in Canada maybe? Could that also be why numbers initially looked stronger Thurs?
19 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:@charlie Jatinder did some great simple math on the difference having *just* Canada off this week does.
Something like this:
If Canada is over-indexing by 100%, then on a 6M weekday for A2, about 25% (1.5M) of the gross comes from Canada instead of 12.5% (0.75M).
Even if the USA increases a superb 100%, 4.5M from the USA becomes 9M. Canada, still on holiday, increases very little comparatively and goes from 1.5M to 1.8M. Friday becomes 10.8M total (+80%), instead of 12M (+100%).
That's just if Canada is on holiday. But I'm sure some Americans are too.
I hope that helps!
-
1
-
-
20 minutes ago, Elessar said:
Look at how the top 10 movies increased on Jan 6 2017 (same calendar setup as today) and compare that to the top 10 when Avatar had that 118% bump (Jan 8 2010). It's really not that hard to understand. More people are off school / work this week (and in 2017) than they were in 2010.
@charlie Jatinder did some great simple math on the difference having *just* Canada off this week does.
Something like this:
If Canada is over-indexing by 100%, then on a 6M weekday for A2, about 25% (1.5M) of the gross comes from Canada instead of 12.5% (0.75M).
Even if the USA increases a superb 100%, 4.5M from the USA becomes 9M. Canada, still on holiday, increases very little comparatively and goes from 1.5M to 1.8M. Friday becomes 10.8M total (+80%), instead of 12M (+100%).
That's just if Canada is on holiday. But I'm sure some Americans are too.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:
I dont see FRI being flat or bellow TUE. Yeah Canada may be but DOM increase should be enough. Discount Tuesday was also a thing during the Holidays and during the Holidays there is less incentive to chose FRI over weekdays ,especially for a 3 hour movie. And despite that both Fridays came comfortably ahead of TUE with one being during the storm's peak
Good points. Hadn't thought of it from that angle before.
-
I was starting to think that my 45M prediction was going to be to low based on early estimates yesterday, but a 6.5 THU is actually what I projected 45M from.
-
22 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Maybe is a culture difference,in Chinese language environment is just a harmless joke,other people will laugh when hearing it,maybe I should put a lol after it
but yes,I should respect English envirment,I won’t post it again
There's no universal rule on this in the English language environment. You'll find some groups where some people are offended, & others where people will laugh about it.
But, in any event, I think it's fair to respect someone if they are hurt by those words or are concerned that someone else on the boards may be. So props to you for being considerate.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, oenri said:
People are underestimating this movie again. The weekend can absolutely go 45M+, this can very well surpass Top Gun Domestic.
Opening weekend, people said this movie was going to underperform. A few days post weekend, they said it was going to perform like RO and a normal blockbuster. And now, just because of week day numbers, they will underestimate James Cameron and will be proven wrong with the upcoming weekend numbers, rise and repeat.
Picked 45 in the competition thread, but it’s soundly beaten the weekday projections I extrapolated that from.
-
3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
are the tv news channels reporting on it or something?
I don’t know. Possibly.
I do think there’s another possibility:
This movie appeals to demographic groups that are underrepresented on social media & don’t rush to go see films when they release.
I’m pretty sure my mother’s known about this movie being released for weeks. But like my MIL, it was 2+ weeks before they talked about going to see it. I remember the same thing happened with A1 in 2009.
Edit:
I stress this a theory & that we shouldn’t get caught up in my anecdata.
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:
Agreed. My mom just like 1h ago said to me she saw that Avatar entered the top 10 of highest grossing movies ever and said she is going to the see it next weekend with my stepfather. She was always interested in seen it, but after she saw it made her make a decision to see it next week. I think the headlines are going to be an important factor in keeping the legs throught the rest of the run...
My mom just texted me asking when we’re going to go see it.
-
1
-
-
26 minutes ago, hw64 said:
Avatar 2's third Thursday should be around double the admissions of RotK's third Thursday, so not as big of a discrepancy as the raw numbers suggest but still significant enough to expect the potential for a naturally lower multiplier with all other things evened out.
Ah yeah, forgot RotK opened on a Wednesday — I'll ignore the first two days and keep referring to the days as if it opened on the Friday.
New Year's Day (end of the holidays) was on RotK's second Thursday rather than its second Friday, which was 3 days earlier than Avatar 2's New Year's Day on the Sunday and 4 days earlier than the real end of the holidays for Avatar 2 due to the observed NYD on Avatar 2's third Monday.
I think it's pretty self-evident that the end of the holidays (typically New Year's Day) falling at the beginning of the week results in a significant amount of people talking the subsequent days or even the entire week off as compared to when New Year's Day falls in the middle/end of the week (Thursday, Friday) and people have a few days/the weekend to recover before a full return to normality the next Monday; Avatar 2's calendar configuration is an example of the former, RotK's is an example the latter.
In terms of its effect on the box office, I haven't done any actual number-crunching on this as I'm lazy, but just a quick glance at the Thursday-to-Friday increases on January 9, 2015 (RotK-equivalent calendar) compared to January 6, 2017 (Avatar 2-equivalent calendar) shows you how much of an effect this has on the Thursday-to-Friday increases for the two configurations.
The problem with splitting the difference between Rogue One and RotK is that RotK is obviously heavily flawed due to the calendar differences and, to a lesser extent, the admissions differences, but Rogue One is nowhere near flawed enough in the other direction to balance it out to a reasonable result. For Rogue One, the calendar configuration is obviously the same, so the only real difference is the level of hold you're expecting for Avatar 2 compared to Rogue One, and that's not nearly as much of a flaw as the significant calendar issues for RotK.
My bad, ROTK NYD was Thursday, not Friday. Thanks for pointing that out. And, yeah, I think 2X is probably a fair comparison between ROTK midweek traffic & A2. With RO being roughly halfway in between the two.
That said, I don’t think that it’s self-evident that a holiday being observed at the beginning of the work week results in a significant amount of people taking the subsequent days or entire week off. It’s certainly not evident from RO’s run, which had a strong Monday, but then dropped the way you might expect coming out of the holidays. (Mid 70s w2w). And remember that per Asgard, the geographical area that’s over-indexing is Canada, where this is still a true week off.
Also, I think there is more than one “real difference” between A2 & RO. Specifically, a runtime that’s an hour longer. Which has a bearing on mid-week showtimes as the LOTR films showed us long ago—which is a large part of the reason I thought they were worth looking at in the first place.
-
2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
my 4th weekend prediction is 56m, check deep wangs thread!
Should have done that before I asked. Bold, dude.
What was your prediction for last weekend, and how did that turn out?
-
15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
avatar
Do you see a 56+M weekend coming?
-
37 minutes ago, hw64 said:
It also had a Thursday of $1.65m which Avatar 2 will quadruple, and bigger numbers = lower multipliers. Not to mention the fact that Return of the King's third Thursday was 4 days further removed from the end of the holiday period than Avatar 2's, which, as other people have pointed out, makes a huge difference in the behaviour of the first post-holiday week. Avatar 2's third Thursday will be artificially bloated a bit by its proximity to the end of the holidays (only 3 days prior) compared to Return of the King's third Thursday which was 7 days (and an entire weekend) removed from the end of the holidays.
I don't think looking at Return of the King's Thursday-to-weekend multiplier is a good idea at all here, even if you're just splitting the difference between it and a more appropriate comp.
I agree it's certainly hard to find good comparisons, but not "at all"? Seems at least as good a comparator as other movies being talked about.
Some questions to ponder:
What does 1.65M of 2003 regular format ticket sales translate to in 2022 with PLF premiums? Is it 1/4 the admissions?
Unless we're counting the opening weekend (ROTK opened on a Wednesday), ROTK's third Thursday was on Jan. 8. It was also during the first week after the holidays, like A2, as New Years landed on the previous Friday instead of Sunday (for A2).
Incidentally, can we quantify how much the distance from the holidays affects the Thu multiplier? It seems like Charlie gave us a sense of where the inflation was coming from: Canada--which I already mentioned.
Consider that RO saw WTW drops very similar to (if not a bit lighter) than ROTK. A2 is holding better than both.
Not here trying to say how I'm looking at it is absolutely right. But dismissing outright seems a bit harsh.
-
10 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:
Imagine a $7m Thursday with this projected multiplier 😲
I wouldn't be surprised if it got there & flirted with 50M this weekend.
Using the Thursday multiplier is difficult to parse for me because Canada being on holiday should drag that multiplier down but the long runtime should lift it back up.
ROTK (long runtime) had a multiplier in the 8.5x vicinity (IIRC), whereas RO (same schedule) was around 5.5x. 7x splits that difference, so it seems like a reasonable guess.
Edit:
All that said, I also wouldn't be surprised if the number it was flirting with was 40M.
-
Whether it's 7.3, 7.4 or 7.5 it's a great number.
Feeling ok about my 45M weekend prediction.
-
6 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:
Numbers look good. Should be 6-6.5x Thursday for the weekend.
Only doubt I have is the runtime. RO did 5.6x the Thursday number for this weekend, but it's an hour shorter than A2.
ROTK (18 minutes longer?) did 8.6x.
-
I said it would take past Boxing Day to get a sense of this film’s trajectory.
I was wrong. I still have no idea and I’m not sure this weekend will even tell us.
This film’s run may end up looking a lot more like its predecessor’s than many of us thought possible.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:
$10-10.25m would still be so good, but I got used to thinking this would beat I2's record lol. Still, even if it doesn't, to even come close to the record on a non-holiday Tuesday is pretty great
Plus consider the runtime. I was honestly expecting something around $8M because I just couldn't see how you squeeze enough viable shows into a regular weekday with a 190M runtime.
-
1 hour ago, Maggie said:
It's evident by now that A2 is developing crazy legs. TG2 is going down. I wouldn't be surprised by something very close to 800M for A2
I don't know if I agree it's evident, but I definitely agree it's possible.
This movie is hard to find a comparator for.
-
57 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
https://thefederalist.com/2023/01/02/avatar-the-way-of-water-is-pro-family-in-all-the-best-ways/
someone linked that article from what im pretty sure is a right-wing website which tells their readers to watch avatar 2
@IronJimbo Is that what you were waiting for?
I'm cringing at potentially ceding "pro-family" to the extreme RW.
Why can't we just say that Cameron finds a way to touch fundamental human values for a wide variety of people. Including internationally!
Edit:
I'll add that, speaking as a father, that article is one of the better ones I've ever seen from The Federalist & a good article in its own right.
-
3 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:
NWH had gigantic late legs partially boosted by Canada reopening. It held on strong through Feb and March. Avatwo's legs after it loses PLFs and 3D remains to be seen (Keep in mind that even the original Avatar had unremarkable holds after it lost 3D to Alice in Wonderland). Using a single data point to compare it to NWH is faulty. Let the post holiday legs brew and manifest before drawing any meaningful assumptions imo.
Didn't you just do this with RO?
-
With this runtime, I’m pretty surprised 10M on a weekday is the middle of the confidence interval. Great number if it holds.
M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I have a hard time seeing China account for ~100M admissions from where I’m sitting. Can you get me there?