LinksterAC
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Posts posted by LinksterAC
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1 minute ago, Elessar said:
That would be +3m from estimates, not gonna happen. Estimates will be pretty close to actuals. Pretty much the only time estimates are off by that much is with sunday (and in this case holiday monday) early projections but we are tuesday afternoon already.
I have a feeling Sunday will be much stronger than shown in the estimate. And while it's Tuesday afternoon, I don't think I've seen the Sunday estimate change since Monday AM or Sunday late PM.
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When can we expect actuals?
I'm really curious about Sunday & Monday. My gut's telling me 3-day is going to get really close to 70M on actuals.
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5 minutes ago, M37 said:
How am I suddenly the the optimist who thinks double digits is happening today?
In 2016/17, the films to drop >50% from Mon 1/2 to Tue 1/3 has the smaller declines from Sun to Mon, and a whole lot were under 50%.
Expecting $10-$11 for Tuesday
I dunno. That runtime makes weekday viewing hard.
I'm expecting tepid numbers this week, but that it will lead to this being a Saturday/Sunday banger like the LOTR films were way back in the day.
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1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:
Astonishing number, 60M is locked.
Some R1 comparisson would put it at 64M. I think it can do slightly better than that, so 65-66M and an surreal increase over an pretty good second weekend.
600-650M finish seems like the realistic range now, Nice.
Based on the way this week has gone (daily underestimates by Asgard & a consistently widening gap with RO dailies), my gut says 68M—maybe even flirting with 70M this weekend.
The movie is definitely starting to levitate now.
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Just now, Godzilla said:
People love to say that Avatar doesn't have a crazy fanbase like Star Wars or Marvel. But I think in these times that's a benefit to the franchise. People are getting turned off by franchises like Star Wars or MCU because of their crazed fanbase. We Avatar fans aren't obsessive. We love seeing James Cameron vision on screen and we let Avatar wash all over us like an experience. Yes we recognize some flaws like the occasional clunky dialogue but we don't nitpick it because we view Avatar movies as a whole.
Yeah, Fourth of July fireworks don't have crazy fanbases either, but everyone still goes & watches them.
There's something to be said for something that has broad warm (not raging hot) appeal.
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4 hours ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:
Perhaps not but there’s definitely nothing in the numbers we’ve gotten the last 4 days that suggest the 2nd weekend was missing “10 or 20 million”.Unless you're inclined, as I am, to think that unmet weekend demand moves to the next weekend rather than later in the week.
Obviously offset by the holidays--but I don't think completely.
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That Thursday number is ridic.
Still can’t project this one. It’s definitely distancing itself from RO now.
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10 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
1-2% increase, if any at all. No where near 10M or 20M. Most of what was missed Thurs/Friday/Saturday was picked up Sunday/Monday.How do you figure?
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1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said:
Another stellar day for A2. It's the first time the water flow (average gain over 7 days) indicates A2 to beat RO. Can make it comfortable if cuts the deficit significantly over the weekend. A2 dropped 15% and up 43% from last week whereas RO decreased 20% and only up 20% from its previous week.
WATERSO SHOWDOWN - AVATAR 2 VS ROGUE ONE
DAY 13: (WEDNESDAY) AVATAR 20.6m
DAY 13: (WEDNESDAY) ROGUE ONE 18m
WATER TEMP: WARM (+2.6m)
CUME: AVATAR 338m VS ROGUE ONE 358.6m
SEA LEVEL: MINUS 215.5m
WATER FLOW: 563m
20.6 is extremely strong & I think this movie is starting to distance itself from Rogue 1.
Thinking it lands at around 17.5-18 today. (Just my guess)
I feel like this weekend will be bigger than last.
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Lots of action on this thread since I went to bed last night!
20.5 is an extremely strong number, & this really may be where A2 & RO finally part ways for good. The weekend is shaping up to be a very interesting one.
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1 minute ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
Fair to do and not out of the realm of possibility, I just don't feel comfortable estimating that high when it probably won't be quite that much.
Anything in the range set out by you two (19.5 to 21) & we’re starting to see a pattern of differentiation from RO.
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24.13. Strong number. Curious to see how the numbers look tomorrow to see if it’s finally building some daily distance with RO.
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1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:
If I had them on hand I would have but I’ll need to do a little digging (I’ve definitely seen at least one on Reddit, I think multiple, and maybe one over here and one on some other site?) and I’m about to go to sleep. I can find some for you in 10 hrs or so if nobody else has provided the goods by then.
Thanks. Would love to understand the methodology & the results.
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5 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
Yes
Yes
Yes
It’s still pretty noisy (especially without accounting for genre) but there’s at least a clear weak relationship
Can you please provide references on the statistics? Are they somewhere on this board?
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2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
It’s not. Movies can open all over the size spectrum and have awful to bad to average to good to great legs. Extremely noisy relationship.
Several of the recent OW record breakers had low legs (endgame, DH2, SM3) one had medium legs (IW) and many had great legs (TFA, JW, TA, TDK, DMC, SM1, HP1). Even if you want a harsher cut on “recent” it’s like even at worst.
Are you absolutely sure that's not true of Cinemascore too? Have we done the stats?
This points to what I asked about earlier. Has anyone done the math to establish a statistical relationship between Cinemascore & legs?
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8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:
you know NWH had the second largest opening weekend of all time right?
Well, I wonder if the size of the opening weekend isn't a better predictor of legs than the Cinemascore is?
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18 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
You know NWH barely had 3x multiplier right?
TGM i 100% agreed is more rewatchable, will have the way better legs.
Anyway, the discussion was rewatchability which couldn't really be measured by Cinemascore grades on OD, especially for movies with huge fanbases.
Has anyone done any kind of statistical analysis relating Cinemascore grades to legs.
What's the R-score?
If we don't have one, how well can we use Cinemascore to project legs?
Not necessarily saying Avatar 2 will have amazing legs--just trying to understand the predictive power of Cinemascore.
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11 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
Would need huge Jan gains to hit 600if it follows RO til the 2nd — let alone 650
I have a feeling it's going to start distancing itself from R1 this week. But we shall see.
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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
Well I mean it's already heading for a much better multiplier than Rogue One, that's guaranteed. If it continues grossing essentially the same dollar amount as Rogue One on a daily basis, it finishes at $508M and that's a 3.8 multiplier. Rogue One had a 3.4 multiplier from a larger opening weekend.
3.8 multiplier is similar to Force Awakens. Of course TFA's multiplier is insane given the nearly $250M opening weekend. I am curious to see if Avatar 2 can start creating enough separation from Rogue One's daily gross to pull off a 4.5 multiplier, which would be $600M total. So far it has not shown this tendency, but we shall see where it goes!
I'll be watching this week closely just for that.
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4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
Check out the numbers below. This excludes Opening Friday, where Rogue One had a big advantage. Avatar 2 has not really made up ground from Day 2 through Day 11.
Great chart!
Maybe it's because of the winter weather & the smaller first day, but this just makes me feel like A2 is going to out-leg R1 by a country mile.
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3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
If it matches Rogue’s daily gross the rest of the way, it finishes at $508M. Will be interesting to see if it can gain some ground to get closer to $600M.Aren’t its legs already better? Weekend to weekend drop I mean.
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Fantastic weekend at ~95M. One wonders what it would have looked like with better placed holidays & better weather.
110 to 115? If so, that’s an unreal hold. Not that 95M isn’t.
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Great number for Avatar as the movie nestles itself deeper into the "I have no idea where the f*** this is going" cocoon.
Which, come to think of it, is exactly where I thought we would be. I thought even waiting for Boxing Day wouldn't be long enough to allow us to confidently project its run.
Just enjoying each day as it passes at this point.
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Avatar: The Way of Water Fourth Weekend Stab Fest!! Closes in 4 hours! TICK TOCK!!
in The Speakeasy
Posted
Miss Cleo is telling me it's going to have only 4s & 5s in it.
45,045,045
or
54,054,054
Nah, going with the top one. 54 is too high.