XXR vs XXR
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Posts posted by XXR vs XXR
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1 hour ago, Rman823 said:
I prefer it in December anyway. I don't think I could handle Guardians and Episode 8 together within a couple weeks of each other.
Yes Disney really needs to do something with that. Either move EP8 to December or switch Guardians 2 with Thor: Ragnarok-
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Just got back from an 8pm showing at an AMC Prime. It was totally packed! When I ordered my seats online (about 4pm today, reserved seating) there were only 11 seats left to choose from.
Best part was when we were leaving, we were walking out behind a group of 3 older women (late 50's to early 60's I'd say) and one asked another, "Did you like it?" and she replied, "I thought it was great but I didn't understand what the hell was going on."
Just goes to show how diverse the group this movie is pulling in, is.-
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About to go contribute 30 more dollars to the Wednesday total!
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1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:
That's less than 35% drop
That number would put it at nearly $550 million in only 10 days! If it hits that then $700 million by the end of January 3rd seems all but locked. Crazy to think it would hit $700 million in the amount of time Jurassic World hit $500 million!!
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18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Wednesday it should set the record for most days over 30m ever with 6. JW and TA are the only ones to have 5 before. Depending on what happens next week it could go up to as many as 15 days over 30m.
I don't think it will do that many. I'm thinking 10 (The first 6 days, 3 days this weekend and the Saturday of New Years). -
6 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:
That a a few hours away. The 23rd can see a bump when it falls midweek like this
I'd love to see $40 million+ again but I'm betting on a roughly 10% fall from yesterday. -
Do any of the box office maestros have early estimations yet? @Rth or Gitesh?
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7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
BOM updated their SW 7 weekday guess
Monday: $40.1 M (33.76% drop) / $288.1 M (actual)
Tuesday: $37.4 M (6.85% drop) / $325.4 M (actual)
——- Wed-Sun projections based on Avatar first week dailies ——-Wednesday: $38.2 M (2.23% increase) / $363.6 M
Thursday: $25.9 M (32.19% drop) / $389.5 M
Friday: $53.6 M (107.11% increase) / $443.2 M
Saturday: $65.7 M (22.43% increase) / $508.8 M
Sunday: $56.3 M (14.24% drop) / $565.2 M ($175.6 M weekend)
Realistically what do you think the chances of this happening are? I'm modeling $33.8 million today, $21.4 million Thursday and $135 million for the weekend.-
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Are we thinking this could hit $200 million?
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4 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:
She went from every adolescent boy's fantasy in ROTJ to something out of the Mines of Moria in SW7
i kid i kid
Was I the only person to like her portayal? I mean she isn't Meryl Streep so I wasn't expecting a high degree of acting. Some people have said she was too emotionless (especially when she felt Han's death) but I thought it was inline with the character from the original trilogies and someone who has been leading a war front for the better part of 30 years. Emotions get hardened in times like that.-
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20 minutes ago, Vadermort said:
If it does insane business in china, will it get anywhere close to Avatars WW gross of $2.7bn ?
It would truly have to be insane. Right now it's international BO is essentially the same as it's domestic BO. If that plays out and domestic BO ends at $1 billion, international will come in at about the same minus China. So we're at $2 billion. Even if it blows things away in China I don't see it doing $800 million+. At this point I'd have to say Avatar's WW record is out of reach. Titanic should be the target at this point.-
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17 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
Who will win: #teamtele or #teambaumer? Choose your side!
#TeamBaumer
I've got it at just over a 9% drop
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12 minutes ago, Vadermort said:
Since TFA is not well known in china, how will it perform there ?
Current estimations from Chinese theater chains range from $200 million to $330 million. It's really a shot in the dark at this point. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for $400 million though
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12 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
December was the big issue. If it opened in July like Potter and TDK, I think TFA would have hit $300m and destroyed the "proper" daily numbers for Friday and Saturday.
But I believe releasing the weekend before Christmas was brilliant. Opening was a bit deflated while weekends 2&3 will be utterly insane. Could be past $700m after weekend 3.
Agreed. I read somewhere (I believe on this forum) that based on number of shows and estimated number of seats per show, that if every show was at 90% capacity it could have done about $300 million without previews (of course that's unrealistc because not every single show would ever be at 90% capacity for such a wide release with so many showings). Opening in July would have given it a solid 300 more theaters to open in, probably another 10,000 - 15,000 showings. So the theoretical 3 day proper for a movie of TFA's size during the summer is probably $330 million. I think EP8 will open to about $210 million during it's 3 day proper (though I expect it to fall about 20% short of TFA's total domestic run).-
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I have a question for more knowledgeable box office trackers.
Is there a particular reason you think Star Wars didn't beat out Jurassic World for Friday proper or Saturday? Originally I thought it was due to the insane previews number but then Sunday beat the record by $3 million and the weekdays are blowing away the previous records. I know Saturday was a shopping day but Sunday was as well and it didn't have any trouble there (plus Sunday is church and the NFL). Any thoughts?
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2 hours ago, Baumer Fett said:
Me and Tele just made a bet. I say it drops 5% or less....he has it at 17%, the middle number here is 11%. Whoever is closer is declared the winner and the loser will donate $25.00 to the site towards the 2016 goal.
Much to learn you still have, Tele.
My prediction is $33.8 million - which would be just over 9%. So what I'm saying is.....
Congratulations on your victory Baumer! -
Just now, LonePirate said:
I think $60M is in play both days.
^^ I've always wanted to use that! $If it hits $60 million on either day I would be shocked (in a good way). I'm projecting 45/49/39 for the weekend. -
5 minutes ago, spizzer said:
Probably way over that number now. Presales for the 2nd weekend have still been building up.
Do you think Christmas day is a lock for $50 million? -
8 minutes ago, #ED2-D2 said:
It will go down as 5 days in the record books.
Yes sir, just pointing out what he probably meant by his tweet -
2 minutes ago, #ED2-D2 said:
5.5 Days?
Is Gitesh a little upset?
I didn't get that indication from reading his tweet. Really more just a realistic observation based on time frame I would say
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1 minute ago, FTF said:
Rth may be sticking with the same #s me thinks.
As long as it sets the Tuesday record I'll be happy. Feasibly this will be the last possible weekday TFA can take the record for, so it needs to get it done
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Just realized I didn't give an actual Tuesday prediction!
$37,582,093 -
11 minutes ago, tokila said:
I agree. It wont hit a "wall" but it will look like one statistically. Basically I see this currently teir we are on. At some point we are going to see a sharp downward correction, it will fall, but it will still be doing great numbers compared to other movies. Just not compared to what it was doing.
The key is when it hits that point. If it can make it through the new years weekend riding high and then have a sharp downturn that 1st week of January we have a shot at 1 bil. If it happens the week after CMAS we will be between 800 and 900 mil. If it happens next week it will be less noticeable, but will lead to larger lost sales.
I think it's 2nd week (and 3rd weekend) needs to be on par with Jurassic World's 1st week (and 2nd weekend) for a good run to $1 billion. Something else I noticed which I'm sure others have as well is the international numbers seem to be running fairly parallel to the domestic numbers. I imagine this will be the case until China opens. We should see a nice pop then, the only question is are we looking at a Jurassic World total or Furious 7. Titanic is well within the targeting capabilities of this Starkiller either way, and Avatar's global numbers could fall if the best case scenario plays out across the bored (I'm not banking on it though).
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6 minutes ago, tokila said:
889 when? End of run?
If today comes in it 39million I have it at 898mil on 7 FEB. making 5.8 mil the weekend of 5-7 FEB, and beween 850k-950k on weekdays. I have not extended the model out past the 7th, but if it is doing that then I would assume another 30 million. So 930mil total.
For me for this to make one billion domestic it needs to do over 165 mil this weekend, and then have 10% softer drops week over week than i currently project.
Yes sir, $889 million when it leaves the box office. I believe the law of large numbers will soon come in to play and the drops will be sharper than a typical mid-December opener. That won't stop it's eventual domestic domination, but I do believe that will leave it short of some of the loftier current estimations.
Of course I hope I'm wrong, I would love for TFA to be the first $1 billion domestic film!-
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Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Haha definitely. Of course Guardians isn't on Star Wars level but since the first one was maybe Marvel's best film and had great WOM, I imagine it's going to do amazing business ($130 million OW, $400 million domestic if it's on the originals level) which isn't something even Star Wars wants spillover from due to such a close date and similar content. If they're dead set on leaving Star Wars for Memorial weekend (I believe they are especially since it's the 40th anniversary of the franchise) then switching GOTG 2 with Thor 3 would make the most sense to me for both brands. Why compete with yourself? lol