zenithtim
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Posts posted by zenithtim
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17M? Too high. It's more like 14M, according to the last estimates from Nikki and Rth.Meltdown? Il give you a meltdown...WTF is going on here? Holy shit, 17M OD?Wtf is this shit? This better increase by 50% at least today.Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to change the release date?
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So Guru's figure is perfectly consistent with the low end of Rth's number. Then the gross would be exactly 2+15=17 million on Wed night + Thursday. Pretty weak IMO. If this number holds, it might not even hit 95M 4-day.
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He was referring to the opening day only.How is Gatsby going to have a higher opening than Trek? trek is not opening to 50 mill for the three day.
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You're right, thanks. But even with supposedly good WOM, we can rule out 300M, right?No. You can't project what it will gross in total based on one day. You have to wait for WOM, how much competition affects it and so on. With a 80 mill 3 day, even a very optimistic 3 multiplier only gives it about 250 mill. This won't touch 290.
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An upset for the ages, to quote an executive.So Great Gatsby will have a higher opening day then Trek 2
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So you would say under 275M? I think a 2.6-2.75 multiplier is likely too.I would say below 2.75 ST 09 is 2.95 but that had a Friday opening so not a real comparison.
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What multiplier do you think it's going to have from the 4-day OW?On the positive side, it has the Memorial weekend ahead.On the negative side, it will have insane competition.
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Hmm, you might be right. If that's the case, it wouldn't be too good for STiD.He said "midnights, etc." The "etc" could easily be a reference to previews since the studios are lumping them in more and more lately.
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It includes the 1.25 figure for midnight only.Rth, does that 17-20m figure include the 2m from Wednesday?
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So it should do around 100M for the 4-day and around 270-290 domestic gross, based on these numbers?
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So between 16-18 without midnights.Without delving too much into it thu looking atm like 17-20m depending on evenings, that would include midnight etc. should be ableo to update later maybe couple time will see.
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1st episode: 14 million viewers
2nd: 8.5 million
3rd: 8 million
4th: 6.5 million
-Pulled from schedule....
-Moved to Saturdays
5th: 4 million
6th: 4.5 million
7th: 3.8 million
-Cancelled
Well, viewership is completely irrelevant for its chances of renewal. It is the A18-49 ratings that matter. I can imagine it opening into the 4's and dropping to mid-to-high 2's toward the end of the season, which would be more than enough for a second season.
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Good luck with it. When was the last time Rth was wrong?I call bullshit on that jump. Not happening.
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Hmm, and some people were wondering whether IM3 can hit 70M. It will do or sure now 76M+ for the second sophomore week ever!
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How much did DH2 and IM3 do on IMAX?
IM3 $16.5M
DH2 $15.2M
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There was inflation in IMAX for sure.
I paid $20 to see DH2 in IMAX 3D here in NYC.
I just paid $21.50 this weekend.
That might be true. How about the 3D prices - do you think they decreased or increased?
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DH2 had a smaller 3D share, no?
Oh, actually I checked it and IM3 had a 45% 3D share, DH2 a 43% 3D share, so almost the same. Still, the difference is so small, and given that there was no inflation in the last couple of years (inflation was actually a bit negative, perhaps), I would say that IM3's attendance is a tad higher, but they are virtually the same.
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DH2 had a smaller 3D share, no?
I could be wrong, but I think that DH2 had a share above 44-45%, so I think IM3 had a smaller share. But maybe you have more knowledge on DH2's 3D share.
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I would assume DH2 has a tad bit more being 2011 dollars.
I could be wrong.
I would say IM3 would be above DH2 in attendance because of the smaller 3D share, and because there is basically no inflation or very small one -in terms of the economy or ticket prices) since 2011.
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So what do you think, after IM3's opening, do you think that RDJ is the top of the A-list in Hollywood? I mean he has 6 500M+ WW hits in the last 6 years, 8 100M+ DOM in the last 6 years as well, 4 300M+ in the last few years. Yes, I know that in most of them he's playing Tony Stark or Sherlock, but it is pretty clear that he is one of the main reason why Avengers and the whole Marvel Cinematic Universe is having such a HUGE success. And also, if he chooses to return for Iron Man 4/ Avengers 2, he might become the first actor to be paid 100M+ for a single movie. That's impressive considering his situation a few years ago.
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That's a best case scenario, though. I think $60m Fri is more likely than $70m.
You might be right, buy I think it should do 50M+ today without the midnights.
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So the OD should be pretty close to 70M, based on this 15.6M figure. It should stay almost flat on Saturday (i.e. approximately 53-54M) and then drop to 41-42M for Sunday. An OW 165M +.
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#IronMan3 rises to $361M worldwide incl US THU night. After just 2 days, China is already the top-grossing mkt w/ $30M.
So that means a 39M Thursday overseas. Superb!
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The 21.5 figure is on Deadline too and both article say that the number is confirmed by Disney.
WKND BO: #StarTrek $70.6M/$84.1M, IronMan3 $35.2M/$337.1M, Gatsby $23.4M/$90.2M
in Numbers and Data
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So Nikki was predicting these numbers at Friday around 1PM on the West Coast? Right, good luck with the accuracy here.