devlinadl

Yes, I realised that. Just wanted to be a bit more granular, using figures from some of the other overseas threads. Not trying to imply you were wrong.

China looks to be about $17m. The Japan OW looks to be about $4-4.5m. That would imply that the weekend for overseas less China and new markets (i.e. Japan) is ~$30m, for a 72% drop-off. Ouch!

It's not going to get a 1:2 ratio. The quoted OW number for overseas is 185m, but that includes 27m from Wednesday and Thursday and 50.5m from China, so the true weekend numbers are 50.5m for China and 107.5m for overseas - China. China looks set to do x2, so say 101m The only other overseas territory yet to open is Japan, which could be good for 5-10m. Lets say 8m. If we assume the other overseas territories are going to do a 2.7 multiplier (and remember that they will not get any Thanksgiving bump), that's 317, for a a total of 426. If you think that legs are going to be better than 2.7, for every 0.1 you add the overseas gross increases by 11m. In order to hit the 756m you suggest, the overseas multiplier has to be in excess of 3.9, which is unfeasible.

With $4m in previews, if it tracks the same trajectory as Ant-Man ($6.4m in previews), that's an OW of $36m.