YM!
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Everything posted by YM!
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Also The Lego Movie Sequel opens the week before too. -
Captain Marvel opens March 8 2019.
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What are you predicting for JL? And future CBMs out of curiosity?
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I can really seeing this being the next YA franchise. $85M/$255M.
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Depending on scheduling, we can have 4-5 female superhero movies in 2019: Captain Marvel Silver and Black Batgirl Wonder Woman 2 Gotham City Sirens
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I meant as in top domestic grosser for November.
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Wonder Woman 2 vs Frozen 2 would be interesting.
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3 if Silver and Black happens.
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However to be honest Panther needs good marketing too. Something I have no doubt will be great. People here said Strange marketing sucked and did $85M OW.
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1.) First African American Superhero movie since Blade Trinity. Also in the golden age of CBMs. 2.) Civil War goodwill. 3.) Opens in Black History Month and has a four day OW. 4.) Weak competition in February. Also a normal devoid January. 5.) Hidden Figures and Get Out broke out massively. 6.) MCU brand and great talent (Coogler and Cole (directing and writing))
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Remember Wonder Woman was tracking mainly at Males over 25 and had a family friendly opener to deal with. I think Panther is not only going to be great (Coogler I trust) but get a lot of media attention too.
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I can see a deflated OW for JL ($155M-$160M) but a strong 5 Day ($100M-$110M)
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I don't see much audience overlap between the two. Thinking $28M-$40M OW for Ninjago.
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You forgot the biggest animated sensation, Ninjago. Thinking this also. My realistic prediction for TR is $110M/$260M.
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I think the addition of Hulk and Strange might get Rangarok over $100M OW, if it's really good, I can see $130M OW at the most (if almost everything in September/October underperform). Black History Month will help drive Panther to $100M OW, I can also see glowing reviews for it too.
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But like WW, $150M OW won't happen.
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Homecoming: $120M Thor: $130M JL: $155M Panther: $105M (3 Day)/$125M (4 Day) New Mutants: $85M IW1: $210M Deadpool 2: $150M Incredibles 2: $145M Ant Man 2: $85M Venom: $55M Dark Phoenix: $65M Animated Spider-Man: $45M Glass: $65M Captain Marvel: $105M Avengers 4: $200M SMHC2: $120M
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I can see this too. Thinking around $155M OW with a total at about $385M-$420M.
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I can see the underestimating SMHC, and overestimating T:R, however Black Panther has the perfect spot. It's in February (Black History Month), opens Presidents Day weekend, weak competition in February (PR (probably $85M-$115M) and Early Man will hurt each other, MR and PRU won't do much, 50SF will do ~$110M at the most), has a lot of goodwill and will likely have a lot of buzz. Not to mention HF and GO both did $160M+. Thinking the range for Panther domestic $235M-$350M.
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Comingsoon says $8M for CU.
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That's also what I'm thinking for the 3 Day, with a 4 day O/U $115M-$120M, however I think it'll rule February and early March (Even though I see Wrinkle breaking out, Disney will attach Panther in double features).
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Black Panther also has a four day OW too. I can see all of these happening.
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I have no doubt Han Solo will be appealing (Gods Lord and Miller are directing), but it has a lot of competition in its first four weeks and I think there's a good chance something moves to May 11th and May 18th weekends too. I can see a ROTS/RO type 4 Day ($170M) but finishes at about $380M-$420M.
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Black Panther is going to benefit massively due to Black History Month domestically at least. I am curious about your predictions for the 3.
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I count Spider-Man Homecoming and Thor: Rangarok as team up movies instead of solo movies. However both should do over $100M OW easily.
