AN9815
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Posts posted by AN9815
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2 hours ago, PNF2187 said:
I feel like positive reactions from Pixar screenings at CinemaCon are almost a given at this point, so Inside Out 2 having good reactions from CinemaCon isn't particularly surprising nor exciting IMO.
I have a feeling this and Moana 2 are going to be better than the last 2 years of movie output from WDAS and Pixar though. Not that I think it's much of a bar to clear (Elemental notwithstanding), but I do have hope for this, even if they both almost certainly won't be as good as the first Inside Out and Moana. Although it could just be Disney doing a far better job at selling their sequels than their originals...
Yeah I don't expect Moana 2 and Inside Out 2 to be as good or better than their originals but I hope they are good. I think both will be well received and make a lot of money and if they reach the level of their originals then...the sky is the limit.
I have a range of $350-$425m for Inside Out 2 if it is well received but no idea about Moana 2. It is the most watched movie on streaming which would point to a massive jump from the first ($248,7m DOM) but idk...
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Please let this be good. I don't really trust Ridley Scott in making a good Gladiator sequel but the cast is amazing. This for me is the biggest wildcard at the box office this year. I can see it being awful and making $100m DOM or being fantastic and crossing $350m DOM.
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On 4/5/2024 at 10:06 PM, dudalb said:
Not me. As a Tolkien fan, if it not based directly on the work of Tolkien, it's fanfic.
Yeah, I am a purjist when it comes to Tolkien. So shoot me.
I don't find any of the 3 big animated films appealing.
I understand, also a massive Tolkien fan here. I've read almost every book there is of Middle Earth (Lord of the Rings, Hobbit, Silmarillion, Unfinished Tales, Children of Hurin) and I just love this world so much that I will take every opportunity that I have to revisit it (even if it is not 100% faithful).
I obviously loved the LOTR trilogy, I thought the Hobbit trilogy was pretty strong although with some unnecessary additions and I personally was fine with the Rings of Power show although they need to pick up their pace on future seasons. The War of the Rohirrim being animated and with an anime style like animation peaked my interest quite a bit.
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14 hours ago, Bob Train said:
Sonic 3 will eat it alive.
Domestically, very likely. Overseas, Lion King will win. Anyway none of these are my most anticipated Christmas movie, that goes to The War of the Rohirrim.
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8 hours ago, marveldcfox said:
No one wants this version of silver surfer. Bombs away.
What do you mean by no one? The majority of people who watch superhero movies aren't even hardcore Marvel fans nor have picked up a single comic book in their entire life. Moreover, even within the hardcore fans luckily some of us have common sense and don't get offended when they cast a woman lol
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I worry that the cliffhanger factor might hurt it a bit if they delay it too much (2026-2028). 2025 is the latest that it can go without it being a problem I think. The ending was very abrupt and something like an Infinity War-Endgame situation would have worked perfectly for this.
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1 hour ago, emoviefan said:
I think The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Twisters and Bad Boys all go 100+ with 200+ possible for The Fall Guy if the audience WOM is as strong as the early reviews suggest it should be. Twisters if the movie delivers also has a shot. IF needs to be dam good or Garfield probably kills it in week 2. I don't think either movie looks all that great though.
I also think The Fall Guy and Twisters are the best contenders for +$200m if the movies are great. Garfield and Bad Boys will probably clear $100m with ease unless everything goes wrong (reviews, toxic WOM, something else overperforming and sucking all the money). No idea about Furiosa and IF, but the later looks like a $70m DOM movie.
Really curious about A Quiet Place: Day One. Part II was heavily affected by COVID, like Godzilla vs Kong and Dune, will it increase from Part II or decrease because it is a spin-off? IMO that can hurt it but the cast is as strong as the main saga and I'm actually quite curious to see how it all started, it looks action packed and a great disaster invasion movie.
I'm also a bit worried for Deadpool and Wolverine. My friends are all quite fans of the MCU and I don't see the excitement anywhere close to No Way Home or Multiverse of Madness. This may change as we get closer to the release date but I had it crossing $400m DOM and maybe it'll "just" do $300-350m DOM
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That is great for Godzilla x Kong. I hope Summer 2024 continues delivering some true hits like March 2024. Outside of Despicable Me 4, Deadpool and Wolverine, and Inside Out 2, which should at least make +$250m DOM I have no idea which other movies might break out. I would not be surprised if The Fall Guy/Furiosa/Garfield/Twisters/IF/Bad Boys go <$100m or >$200m DOM.
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I think the Monsterverse movies have gotten progressively worse with each movie. I liked Godzilla (2014) despite very few Godzilla in it. I thought Skull Island was good, then King of the Monsters was meh and Godzilla vs Kong was pretty bad. This new movie doesn't look any better but I hope it does good at the Box Office.
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7 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:
Good to know Turning Red, the best of these, opened the highest. Quality wins yet again.
For me Turning Red is easily the worst out of the three. But still they are all excellent movies so I guess it depends on your taste. I think Pixar would have had an incredible run with Soul-Luca-Turning Red in theaters if COVID would not have happened.
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The fact that this was initially supposed to be a TV show does worry me, hopefully it will be good. I think all this movie needs to succeed is a good soundtrack, story can be weak as long as the songs are great (similar to Frozen 2). However, if this gets amazing reviews then I do agree it will hit a billion and probably start a "sequel era" at WDAS, if it hasn't already started.
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I think the only movie that is completely safe from this year no matter what the reviews are is Despicable Me 4. The other potential big players (Deadpool 3, Inside Out 2, Gladiator 2, Joker 2, Beetlejuice 2, Mufasa...) will need good critics and audience scores to live to their full potential. Some will just do just ok if reviews are bad (Inside Out 2, Joker 2...) and some will straight up bomb (Gladiator 2, Mufasa).
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2 hours ago, dallas said:
I think Dune 2, Kung Fu Panda 4, Godzilla x Kong, and Civil War will be hits. Don't know about anything else through April.
Horror tends to be successful so Imaginary, The First Omen and Abigail can also be consider hits if the budgets are not too high
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Just cause I am bored and February looks so bad for the box office, some predictions for the movies in March (OW/DOM):
Dune: Part II - $78m/ $225m
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $43m / $146m
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $35m / $92m
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire - $51m / $110m
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These were my 2023 predictions back in January 2023:
1. Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom: $296m DOM - $964m WW (lol)
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: $387m DOM - $912m WW (lmao)
3. The Little Mermaid: $342m DOM - $875m WW (Feel pretty good for DOM, did not expect OS audiences to reject it)
4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning. Part 1: $274m DOM - $860m WW (If not for Barbenheimer it would have done better)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy. Vol 3: $403m DOM - $824m WW (Very close)
6. Super Mario Bros: $328m DOM - $757m WW (I had this overperforming a bit, not the beast that it was)
7. Fast X: $148m DOM - $710m WW (Feel very proud of this one)
8. The Marvels: $264m DOM - $705m WW (no comments...)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: $225m DOM - $562m WW (This would have totally reached these numbers if not for the awful reception).
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: $232m DOM - $520m WW (Glad I was wrong on this one)
I was pretty bad at predicting the top grosses and surprises of the year (no Barbie or Oppenheiemer) although tbh I could see Barbie and Oppenheimer breaking out as the release date approached, just not in January. Moreover, I did not expect reviews or the superhero fatigue to absolutely kill some movies (Ant-Man, The Marvels, Aquaman). So taking this into account, my very early 2024 predictions: (some of these depend entirely on great reviews)
1. Inside Out 2: $484m DOM - $1,094m WW
2. Deadpool 3: $420m DOM - $1,041m WW
3. Despicable Me 4: $302m DOM - $965m WW
4. Joker: Folie a Deux: $291m DOM - $882m WW
5. Gladiator 2: $347m DOM - $832m WW
6. Mufasa: The Lion King: $252m DOM - $784m WW
7. Dune: Part Two: $305m DOM - $742m WW
8. Twisters: $244m DOM - $643m WW
9. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: $161m DOM - $540m WW
10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $152m DOM - $495m WW
Purely anecdotal but almost everyone I have talked to has seen the Inside Out 2 trailer and is planning on seeing the movie when it comes out because of the anxiety character so I think it could surprise big time. Deadpool 3, Joker and Gladiator will ride or die depending on reviews and audience scores. Mufasa got saved by moving it to Christmas, yeah I know Aquaman 2 dropped massively compared to the first one but $700-800m is still a huge drop from $1.6b and families will be more forgiving than for Aquaman.
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28 minutes ago, Maggie said:
Any potential breakout like Barbie?
Not like Barbie (+$600M DOM / $1.4b WW) but I think Inside Out 2, Gladiator 2 or Deadpool 3 could be pretty big if things go well. Despicable Me 4 will do great as well.
By going well I mean great trailers, reviews, advertisement...
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59 minutes ago, Arlborn said:
I honestly believe that some
griftersYoutubers got so used to calling things a bomb or flop to drive engagement up that they left any type of critical thinking behind a long time ago. Everything needs to be a bomb, needs to be hated, so that they can create a caps lock rage-bait title and drive up engagement.This sort of Youtube content took a real nose dive in the past couple of years, it's very hard to find a reasonable movies (or gaming) Youtuber nowadays.
To be fair, most people outside of this forum have no idea about the box office and are not able to tell if a movie is a failure or a success if not for the Variety reports they see. I've seen people say The Marvels might get to $200m DOM because it opened with $46m and Elemental made $154m with $29m opening.
However, if you are a youtuber and specifically dedicate an entire section to talk about the box office, at the very least, do some research beforehand. The Godzilla thing was just an example but I have seen, and not only from this channel in their defense, some incredible awful takes that are just jarring to anyone who has any idea about this.
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Godzilla is doing great numbers, hope it continues to have fantastic legs, specially considering this Christmas season looks pretty bland. I just thought it was kinda funny that certain Youtuber thought the OW weekend was disappointing because it didn't reach Godzilla (2014) or King of the Monsters numbers.
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I know Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes success probably has nothing to do with Rachel Zegler but I am really happy it is succeeding because she was fantastic as Lucy Gray and totally deserved a win. She has been getting a lot of hate, similar to Brie Larson or Hale Bailey, because of her casting as Snow White and it is totally undeserved (like the other two actresses). It is crazy to me how much hate a certain actor/actress can receive because of a casting choice, an out of context interview or simply being part of a big franchise.
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26 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
Not many, it actually doesn't seem that bad considering it's missing some major western european markets (germany, france, italy), SK, Japan, Australia and a bunch of LATAM and minor other markets IMO. Compared to the DOM numbers anyway.
Thanks! I thought it opened everywhere in Europe because it opened here in Spain this weekend. In that case, it is not that bad
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How many markets did Wish opened in? Cause that $17.3M OS opening is just awful
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There is a lot of negativity in this thread regarding the current state of the Box Office but I think we cannot say "theaters are dying" just because of this Thanksgiving weekend. In my opinion, there was a lot of interest for Wish and Napoleon but the reviews and the audience reception totally killed their chances of potentially breaking out. Up until the reviews came out most of us were expecting Wish to, at least, cross $150m DOM and $400m WW and Napoleon $3m previews showed that there was interest in the movie. Audiences are just more selective on what to watch, there is plenty of content to watch "for free" at home and if there is not a good motive to go to the movies they, most likely, won't and will just wait to maybe catch those movies on their respective streaming services. I have yet to watch Wish and Napoleon but I really enjoyed The Marvels and it saddens me to watch it be a total bomb (which paid the price of mediocre/bad previous movies) but if it serves as a wake up call for the studio to focus and make good and appealing movies then it is a win for audiences and fans.
We are also seeing it with Ballad of Songbird and Snakes, that movie was never going to perform close to the originals and I think it was more aimed for fans of the book but because of positive WOM it is holding incredibly well. December movies will ride or die depending on reviews and audience reception, except maybe Aquaman 2 which would require a miracle.
Next year will be the same, from January until Memorial Day weekend it looks absolutely awful for theaters because of the lack of appealing movies or even constant big releases, aside from Dune 2, Kung Fu Panda 4 and GvK2, but they are not comparable to the Creed III - Scream VI - John Wick 4 - Dungeons and Dragons - Mario corridor. However, second part of the year (June-December) will hopefully be better.
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Yeah this Thanksgiving weekend is not great but at least it is better than last year. I think Wish and Napoleon had potential for a breakout but WOM and reviews probably killed any potential breakout. Hunger Games is benefitting from this and I'm glad it is because it is a fantastic movie.
Next year looks better with Venom 3, which will likely do better than The Marvels, Gladiator 2 which has potential and Wicked, which will do well. Moreover, if WDAS movie is Zootopia 2 when it should, at least, double Wish.
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I expected Wish to be one of the bright spots of Disney's 2023 calendar. The reviews totally caught me by surprise. In retrospect, The Little Mermaid's $570m WW doesn't look bad now considering all the negativity that movie had to face.
Weekend 4/19-21: ABIGAIL 1 mil previews
in Numbers and Data
Posted
We'll have to wait for 'Challengers' but April is not delivering big numbers outside of maybe 'Civil War' ($60-70m DOM). May does look much better but not 2023 level either.
My predictions (all DOM):
The Fall Guy: $100-125m
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $150-175m
IF: $50-70m
Furiosa: $120-140m
Garfield: $140-180m