AN9815
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Posts posted by AN9815
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57 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
This kind of nitpicking is only what fans care about. In the industry world, it's either profit or not. So what we call not a hit but not a money loser (this, TLM) is not a hit. Plain and simple. Did a movie make profit? No? Not a hit. Nobody makes big summer movies to only break even.
I mean sure but I was referring more to the future of Pixar and original animation. A $400-450m WW for Elemental, although not what was once hoped, could still point towards a slow recovery for original animation after COVID. At least it is not crashing like Lightyear ($230m WW)
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Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser
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I want to see the Barbie vs Oppenheimer weekend already. I have a feeling both will benefit from each other and overperform
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Well at least Elemental seems to have good WOM and won't have Lightyear drops. I hope it can hit $120m DOM at least
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Honestly I don't get the cinemascore for The Flash. I watched it yesterday and I thought it was quite solid and pretty entertaining. Sure there are things that can be improved, specially on the third act, but overall it is a good movie. Controversies aside, I don't think it is as divisive as Batman v Superman or Multiverse of Madness.
I think this movie had the perfect storm to be a bomb. Ezra controversy, DCEU being rebooted, opening after two great superhero movies (one of them also multiverse related)...I think it is also pretty confusing for general audiencies what they are doing with DC. I mean if you want to copy Marvel fine but at least do it well. Marvel had proper solo films before events and crossovers. It's like they are not taking to properly introduce characters so we care about them when they interact with others, it's like if Marvel would have done Multiverse of Madness as the first Doctor Strange movie or Civil War as the first Captain America movie.
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3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:
This would be really good outcome for MCU
Did you mean 90m OW for Thunderbolts cause otherwise a crazy multiplier
It's releasing during the holidays so I think it will affect its opening weekend but give the movie nice legs.
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16 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:
My predictions for upcoming Superher movies
Blue Beatles : 60m/170m
The Marvels : 80m/200m
Aquaman 2 : 65m/200m
CAP 4 : 90m/220m
Thunderbolts : 70m/180m
I expect Blue Beatles to be decent to good. That will help it stand out.
I'll give mine:
Blue Beetle: 25m/70m
The Marvels: 115m/300m
Aquaman 2: 65m/220m
Deadpool 3: 185m/430m
Cap 4: 95m/240m
Thunderbolts: 60m/230m
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I know it's all doom and gloom now at the box office, and it will probably continue with Indiana Jones underperforming, but I think Mission Impossible, Barbie and Oppenheimer can do quite well in July with all three matching or exceeding expectations.
I'm also not that pessimistic about the rest of the year. I think November looks like the best month that's left (minus July) and December, although much weaker than previous years, it will have some decent numbers for Wonka (+$175m), Aquaman 2 (+$200m) and Migration (+$150m).
I am expecting Aquaman 2 to significantly drop from the first but I still think it will crawl past 200m DOM and 600m WW with holidays.
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I'm not saying the movie will be bad, in fact I have high hopes for this but I cannot say if a movie will be good or bad until it releases. I thought Quantumania looked good and IMO it turned out as one of the worst Marvel movies to date.
What I am trying to say is that this movie is being targeted on social media by trolls claiming it will suck and unfortunately it will probably be review bombed. A similar thing happened with The Little Mermaid. The amount of hate movies like this receive is beyond comprehension to me but people have a lot of free time I guess. Also we don't have to be very smart to see why movies like this or TLM get review bombed and others don't.
I just realized this is not the The Marvels thread so I will end my discussion here.
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4 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:
Why do you think Marvels is going to be bad? I’m hearing that Marvels is actually pretty great.
Easy, because three women are the protagonists of the movie. Not saying everyone who says it'll be bad thinks like this but 95% of those who say it do.
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Maybe I missed it but how does Gwen's father get the multiverse device that he gives her at the end? I watched in English and it is not my mother tongue so I missed the dialogue there. Btw, this was phenomenal
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The Little Mermaid is doing pretty well DOM, unfortunately not OS but it is mainly because of Asia rejection. It is keeping it pretty close to Aladdin domestically but probably won't match Aladdin's late legs, which were amazing, so something like $300-325m at the end.
One thing I am seeing, particularly for this movie, is how little people know about the box office outside of this forum. I've seen multiple people say TLM is an absolute disaster or TLM is a massive hit depending on whatever number they want to pick and compare it to whatever number they want. I saw someone comparing TLM WW total as of now to Beauty and the Beast OW and how because it is higher it will reach a billion. Similarly, I've seen people say it won't reach $400m WW because of China's drop...
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This was one of the best Disney Live-Actions so far. Maybe I am a bit biased because The Little Mermaid is my favorite WDAS movie but I thought this was pretty good all things considered. Maybe not as fun as Aladdin but pretty entertaining. Halle was fantastic in this and gave Ariel so much personality, also her voice is outstanding and that made the songs so emotional. I also thought Jonah Hauer-King was pretty great as Prince Eric and actually improved over the original with the new song and the backstory, his chemistry with Halle was excellent. King Triton and Ursula were kind of just there, not bad not great, kinda wish they would have expanded Ursula's role a bit more as I thought Melissa McCarthy did a good job with what she was given. The sidekicks were fun and kind of grew on me as the movie progressed.
Ranking of Disney Live Actions (Haven't seen Peter Pan and Wendy):
1. Aladdin
2. The Little Mermaid
3. The Jungle Book
4. Cinderella
5. Maleficent
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. Cruella
8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
9. The Lion King
10. Alice in Wonderland
11. Dumbo
12. Mulan
13. Lady and the Tramp
14. Alice: Through the Looking Glass
15. Pinocchio
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2 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
Domestic should be enough for it to get to 600m . Should be mildly profitable for Disney but yeah think the era of gaining much from live action remakes is done . Gonna have to start cutting those budgets .
They also don't have many remakes left. Hercules can do great if it's as fun as Aladdin. Hunchback and maybe Tarzan can do well if budgets are not insanely high. Lilo & Stitch is going directly to Disney+ and I doubt they even touch Pocahontas. Moana will likely be a massive hit tho, and will start the trend of the 2010s Disney remakes.
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8 minutes ago, ogkalu said:
Not just Europe else it would be even lower. Basically every territory that opened fairly close to Aladdin is playing fine. So Most of Europe and Latam and even a select few Asian territories (Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia etc).
The markets that left it for dead stayed dead.
The thing is, can the markets that the movie is holding up fine or close to Aladdin take the movie to +$600m WW?
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I know a lot of people here expected more from Across the Spider-Verse but a $120.5m OW is huge for this movie and a major win. This is a major win for animation, for adult animation and for comic book movies. It also speaks volumes on how loved the first Spider-Verse was. Honestly it could not have happened to a better movie. The first one made $35m OW and $190m DOM while this one will double that, it is a huge accomplishment. It also reinforces that audiences still want to pay for animated movies (if Mario was considered an outlier by some) and for comic book movies, as long as they are good, which tbh its a win win scenario for us.
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1 minute ago, CJohn said:
Next weekend the only competition is Transformers which is gonna tank so TLM doesn't have any excuse to not have a good hold.
I agree, also I don't think they share much audience. It has dropped worse than Aladdin although not by much. In its defense tho it faced a +$120M opener while Aladdin faced Godzilla 2 which I believe did something like $48M
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Imagine, as an adult, hating on a kids movie and wanting it to flop just because you're racist and cannot handle a casting choice.
Btw, Halle was amazing as Ariel.
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1 minute ago, cannastop said:
OK... why wouldn't there be dwarves?
Correct me if I'm wrong, and I'd love to be, but I read an article that Disney was planning on changing the Dwarves to other type of magical creatures or straight up removing them following up Peter Dinkage criticism on the film. Don't know if that stuck but haven't heard any casting announcements.
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2 hours ago, Boxx93 said:
Disney will cannibalize itself again in March with Elio and Snow White.
I think Snow White is probably going to flop. It will, unfortunately, receive as much hate as TLM and if they don't include the seven dwarfs then this movie is done. Its like not including the Genie in Aladdin or Sebastian in TLM. I hope they keep the budget similar to Cinderella ($90M).
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Disney really needs to manage their budgets. WDAS and Pixar originals having a $200M budget or MCU solo films having $250M budget is too high.
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19 minutes ago, cannastop said:
I was never really a Pixar loonie until Turning Red came out. I acknowledged they had good/great stuff in the 90s and 00s but I wasn't like, a stan.
Zootopia used to be my main jam and that's a WDAS movie.
Zootopia is probably the best WDAS movie of the 2000s. Turning Red is pretty good but I myself prefer Luca or Soul, which I think are amazing, over Turning Red. It is so sad that all three movies went directly to Disney+
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I also think that we (myself included) expect way too much from Pixar, except for the Cars franchise. If Brave, Onward, or Turning Red, to give some examples, were released by Disney Animation, Illumination or DreamWorks they would not be considered mediocre or bland to some people. With this I am not saying that those movies aren't great or that the other studios don't have excellent movies (I think the HTTYD trilogy, Zootopia or the first Despicable Me are excellent movies) but it's like expecting every DreamWorks movie to be another Puss in Boots 2 or Shrek 2 type of critical success.
Of couse I am not implying that Pixar (nor the other studios tbh) should release movies on the level of The Boss Baby, Pets 2 or Strange World which IMO were awful but more like we can't expect every single Pixar movie to be another Finding Nemo, Toy Story, Ratatouille, Inside Out or Soul.
Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32
in Numbers and Data
Posted
If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that Transformers: Rise of the Beasts would gross more than The Flash and Indiana Jones 5 worldwide I would have called you crazy. Those two were basically sure bets at the box office and yet they are the biggest bombs of the summer. I do think that, with the massive budgets, they had to explode at the box office but honestly even The Little Mermaid was able to do >2x its budget and looks like Elemental will too.
On that note, if Elemental crosses $450m WW can it break even?