Sheikh
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Posts posted by Sheikh
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9 minutes ago, Nova said:
What about the shows on Wednesday? Serious question.
Thursday night’s figure for Ocean’s 8 include an estimated $100K generated from AMC Theatres’ Wednesday “Girls Night Out” and 70 Dolby locations.
https://deadline.com/2018/06/oceans-8-sandra-bullock-box-office-hereditary-hotel-artemis-1202406200/
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Quote
Also opening this weekend: A24’s Hereditary which we’re hearing from industry sources overindexed in its previews with an estimated $1M
https://deadline.com/2018/06/oceans-8-sandra-bullock-box-office-hereditary-hotel-artemis-1202406200/
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Part A:
1. Will Ocean's 8 Open to more than $36M? 1000 YES
2. Will Ocean's 8 Open to more than $42M? 2000 NO
3. Will Hereditary open to more than $6M? 3000 YES
4. Will Hereditary open to more than $8.8M? 4000 YES
5. Will The top 2 new entries combine to more than $50M? 5000 YES
6. Will Hotel Artemis open to more than $3.75M? 1000 NO
7. Will Hotel Artemis open to more than $5M? 2000 NO
8. Will Solo stay in the top 2? 3000 YES
9. Will Deadpool fall less than 48%? 4000 YES
10. Will Life of the Party's PTA stay above $1,000? 5000 YES
11. Will Action Point drop more than 60% on Friday? 1000 NO
12. Will Overboard increase more than 55% on Saturday? 2000 NO
13. Will Book Club drop less than 32%? 3000 YES
14. Will Adrift stay above Avengers? 4000 NO
15. Will it turn out that this was only called Ocean's 8, so that the trilogy can use up 9 and 10 without encroaching on the original titles? 5000 YES
Bonus:
9/15 5000
10/15 8000
11/15 12,000
12/15 16,000
13/15 20,000
14/15 24,000
15/15 30,000
Part B:
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points
2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points
1. What will Ocean's 8 make for its 3 day? $41,300,000
2. What will Action Point's percentage change be? -64%
3. What will Upgrade's PTA be for the Weekend? $1,604
Part 😄
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
3. Deadpool 2
5. Avengers: Infinity War
7. Book Club
8. Hotel Artemis
10. Life of the Party
12. Overboard (2018)
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
1/6 4,000
2/6 10,000
3/6 18,000
4/6 25,000
5/6 36,000
6/6 - 50,000
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2nd Update, Friday Midday: The post-Memorial Day weekend at the box office doesn’t have to be a downer. However, none of the majors wanted to take advantage of that opportunity and slot an event title here. Wonder Woman opened in this space a year ago and soared to a $103.2M opening and became the biggest grossing title of last summer stateside with $412.5M. We’re left with holiday leftovers in Disney’s disappointment Solo: A Star Wars Story which according to estimates is grounded with a $7.5M second Friday, -78% which translates into a $26M second weekend, -69% for a running total of $145.5M. Ouch. Hopefully we don’t see a summer downturn on par with last year.
Fox originally had Deadpool 2 set to open on this weekend, but wisely moved it prior to Solo, and the pic is still eating into the Lucasfilm title’s business with a weekend three of $20M-$21M, -53% which isn’t too bad when you consider it’s coming off a holiday weekend where Sunday was bulked up. DP2 is looking at $6M today and a running domestic total north of $252M. Some will argue that DP2‘s audience is so different from Solo‘s, but event films are event films, and a more general audience is clearly not going out of their way for the latest Star Wars movie.
Among the new stuff, STXfilms/Lakeshore’s Adrift is poised to take 3rd place with $4.3M today (including last night’s $725K) and an opening of $11M-$11.3M.
Paramount’s amusement park comedy Action Point looks condemned to less than $3M weekend, while BH Tilt’s Upgrade could actually beat it (which isn’t anything to crow about) with $3.4M-$3.6M.
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1. What will Infinity War's total be at the end of the game? 666m
2. What will Book Club's total be by the end of the game? 66m
3. What will Tag's 3 day OW be? 16m
4. What will Ocean 8's Second weekend percentage drop be? -47%
5. What will be the difference in gross between Jumanji's Domestic and Solo's Worldwide gross by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 15.5m
6. What percentage of Deadpool's domestic gross will Antman Make Domestic (if you think it makes more than deadpool then predict over 100%)? 86.55%
7. How close to $700M will Black Panther finish domestic (which side of is unimportant 699 and 701 will give the same answer)? 289k
8. How many weeks will Hereditary spend in the domestic top 12? 4
9. How close to $1.5B will Jurassic World finish by the end of the game? 108m
10. What will be the difference between I Feel Pretty and Life of the Party's final grosses? 2m
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Part A:
1. Will Adrift Open to more than $9M? 1000 YES
2. Will Adrift Open to more than $11M? 2000 YES
3. Will Action Point open to more than $5M? 3000 NO
4. Will Action Point open to more than $7.5M? 4000 NO
5. Will Adrift have a higher PTA than Action Point? 5000 YES
6. Will Solo drop more than 55%? 1000 YES
7. Which $200M plus grosser will have the biggest percentage drop? 2000 DEADPOOL 2
8. Will Upgrade open to more than $2M? 3000 YES
9. Will Show Dogs stay above Overboard? 4000 NO
10. Will Book Club's PTA stay above $2,400? 5000 NO
11. Will Infinity increase more than 125% on Friday? 1000 NO
12. Will BReaking In increase more than 64% on Saturday? 2000 NO
13. Will Deadpool make more than half of Solo's weekend gross? 3000 YES
14. Will RBG drop less than 22%? 4000 YES
15. Will Disney Corporation still be standing come Monday? 5000 YES
Bonus:
9/15 5000
10/15 8000
11/15 12,000
12/15 16,000
13/15 20,000
14/15 24,000
15/15 30,000
Part B:
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points
2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points
1. What will Action Point make for its 3 day? $4,500,000
2. What will Life of the Party's percentage change be? -42.29%
3. What will Rampage's PTA be for the Weekend? $916
Part C:
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
2. Deadpool 2
4. Avengers: Infinity War
6. Action Point
8. Life of the Party
11. Show Dogs
12. A Quiet Place
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
1/6 4,000
2/6 10,000
3/6 18,000
4/6 25,000
5/6 36,000
6/6 - 50,000
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Watched The Philadelphia Story for the first time today. Really good movie, liked it a lot. Katharine Hepburn, Cary Grant, and James Stewart, good stuff. I've loved everything I've seen Cary Grant and James Stewart in actually, I think they're becoming my two favorite actors.
I think I may check out Arsenic and Old Lace next.
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Part A:
1. Will Solo Open to more than $115M? 1000 NO
2. Will Solo Open to more than $135M? 2000 NO
3. Will Solo Open to more than $125M? 3000 NO
4. Will Solo's Dailies over the weekend be All over Deadpool's, All under Deadpool's or Mixed? 4000 ALL OVER
5. Will Infinity War or Black Panther have the larger percentage drop? 5000 Infinity War
6. Will Solo and Deadpool combined be closer to $150M or $200M? 1000 $150M
7. Will Deadpool drop less than 56%? 2000 NO
8. Will BReaking In stay above Show Dogs? 3000 YES
9. Will any film in the top 15 drop more than 75%? 4000 NO
10. Will Life of The Party's PTA stay above $1,350? 5000 YES
11. Will Overboard increase more than 62.5% on Saturday? 1000 YES
12. Will Book Club drop more than 31% on Sunday? 2000 NO
13. Will RBG stay in the top 10? 3000 YES
14. Will Rampage increase more than 115% on Friday? 4000 NO
15. Will the top 12 make more than $220M? 5000 NO
16. Will Overboard stay above A Quiet Place? 1000 YES
17. Will Deadpool or A Quiet Place be closer to $200M by the end of the weekend? 2000 Deadpool
18. Will Every film in the top 10 make more than $1M? 3000 YES
19. Will I Feel Pretty stay above Super Troopers? 4000 YES
20. Will this film have a scene where a bunch of people spend decades arguing over something arbitrary such as who fired their gun before the other guy? 5000 YES
Bonus:
12/20 3000
13/20 5000
14/20 8000
15/20 12000
16/20 16,000
17/20 20,000
18/20 26,000
19/20 32,000
20/20 40,000
Part B:
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points
2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points
1. What will Solo make for its 3 day OW? 104.3
2. What will Show Dogs' percentage drop be? -43.87%
3. What will Life of the Party's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $1,468
Part C:
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
3. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Life of the Party
6. Breaking In (2018)
8. Overboard (2018)
10. RBG
12. Black Panther
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
1/6 4,000
2/6 10,000
3/6 18,000
4/6 25,000
5/6 36,000
6/6 - 50,000
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5 minutes ago, Nova said:
I think theyre taking into account ratios and what not based on the Fandango figures we got as well. Otherwise I don't know what dallies they're talking about
I'm talking about the dailes this week and last week for DP2 and AIW. DP2 did 12.4m Tuesday, AIW did 6m last Tuesday. That's what I'm comparing this week to last week.
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Movie Tickets Update
2018-05-24 12:00:50.609744 UTC 1 41.6% Solo: A Star Wars Story 2 30.2% Deadpool 2 3 8.6% Book Club 4 8% Avengers: Infinity War 5 1.6% Life of the Party
At the same point in time last week:
2018-05-17 12:02:37.464061 UTC 1 50.8% Deadpool 2 2 15.3% Avengers: Infinity War 3 7.6% Book Club 4 6% Solo: A Star Wars Story 5 3.6% Life of the Party
DP 2 is doing around about twice what AIW was doing in the dailies for Tues and Wed I think. So that kind of matches up to this, DP2 at 30.2% compared to AIW at 15.3% last week. This would indicate Solo is selling quite a bit less than DP2 was at the same point last week.
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I think memes will play a big part in this.
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Finally Deadline updated.
QuoteThe 20th Century Fox title easily made an estimated $53.5M in its first day (that’s including $18.6M Thursday night previews) giving it the highest opening day for an R-rated movie, beating New Line/Warner Bros.’ It ($50.4M). Three-day is at an estimated $132M+ which is within nickels and dimes of overtaking Deadpool‘s record R-rated opening of $132.4M.
QuoteMoviegoers may have felt they’ve already seen Melissa McCarthy’s Life of the Party in its one-sheets and set-up of a parent going back to college, and the box office results show it with a second weekend take of $7.8M, -56% in fourth with $31.1M.
QuoteAvengers: Infinity War with $29.5M, -53% in weekend 4, easily ranks second with $595.8M by Sunday.
Paramount’s acquisition Book Club is still ahead of tracking with an estimated $13M-$14M, which is still in the teen range of where these older skewing comedies start. Post Trak audiences gave the movie 4 out of 5 stars, with CinemaScore exit polls showing an A-. Women turned out at 80% giving the Diane Keaton-Jane Fonda-Candice Bergen comedy an A-. Over 25 numbered 97% at an A- while the 50+ sector repped 61% of the crowd, also A-. Forty percent came out for the actresses.
With close to $5M, Global Road’s family comedy Show Dogs is looking at 6th place. Talking dogs — we’ve seen it all before, but for those who actually went to the theater, they didn’t think it was too bad with an A- CinemaScore. Under 18 at 47% gave the Will Arnett comedy an A, while females –typically moms– turned out at 65% grading the movie an A-.
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Avengers: Infinity War
QuoteLast night, Thursday, the Russo Brothers-directed movie made $3.4M.
http://deadline.com/2018/05/ryan-reynolds-deadpool-2-weekend-box-office-opening-1202393815/
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TBH, I'm more interested in this:
QuoteIn other news, we’re hearing that Paramount’s older female-skewing Book Club could overindex its $9M-$10m tracking with a three-day that’s in the high teens, possibly $20M. That’s not off any 5PM preview projections tonight; rather, Fandango spotted advance ticket sales for the movie pacing with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 ($17.8M), and far ahead of Last Vegas ($16.3M) and Going in Style($11.9M).
But, that's probably just me, lol.
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$200M Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
$150M Deadpool 2
$100M Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
$75M Deadpool 2
$50M Solo: A Star Wars Story
$25M Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
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Part A:
1. Will Deadpool 2 Open to more than $125M? 1000 YES
2. Will Deadpool 2 Open to more than $140M? 2000 YES
3. Will Deadpool 2 open to more than $132.5M? 3000 YES
4. Will Book Club open to more than Showdogs? 4000 YES
5. Will Book Club and Show Dogs' combined OW be more than 33.33% of Deadpool's Friday gross? 5000 YES
6.
Will ChampionWill Avengers drop more than 52%? 1000 NO7. Will Life of the Party finish in the top 3? 2000 NO
8. Will Breaking In finish in the top 5? 3000 YES
9. Will I Feel Pretty have a bigger Percentage Drop than Rampage? 4000 YES
10. Will Black Panther's PTA stay above $950? 5000 YES
11. Will Overboard increase more than 100% on Friday? 1000 YES
12. Will A Quiet Place have a weekend above $3.5M? 2000 YES
13. Will Tully increase more than 55% on Saturday? 3000 NO
14. Will Blockers decrease more than 31% on Friday? 4000 NO
15. Will Ryan Reynolds cameo as Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool 2? 5000 YES
Bonus:
9/15 5000
10/15 8000
11/15 12,000
12/15 16,000
13/15 20,000
14/15 24,000
15/15 30,000
Part B:
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points
2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points
1. What will Deadpool 2 make for its 3 day? 143m
2. What will OVerboard's percentage change be? -47.94%
3. What will I Feel Pretty's PTA be for the Weekend? 1,063
Part C:
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
2. Avengers: Infinity War
4. Life of the Party
5. Breaking In (2018)
7. Overboard (2018)
9. I Feel Pretty
12. Pope Francis - A Man of His Word
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
1/6 4,000
2/6 10,000
3/6 18,000
4/6 25,000
5/6 36,000
6/6 - 50,000
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I guess Book Club is going to do well this Weekend? MT: 2018-05-17 01:01:33.186507 UTC 1 42.5% Deadpool 2 2 17.9% Avengers: Infinity War 3 6.3% Solo: A Star Wars Story 4 6.2% Book Club 5 4.5% Life of the Party 2018-05-17 00:02:07.056291 UTC 1 40.1% Deadpool 2 2 19% Avengers: Infinity War 3 6% Solo: A Star Wars Story 4 5.5% Book Club 5 4.8% Life of the Party 2018-05-16 23:01:38.252561 UTC 1 37.1% Deadpool 2 2 19.9% Avengers: Infinity War 3 5.8% Solo: A Star Wars Story 4 5.2% Life of the Party 5 5% Book Club
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11 minutes ago, DAR said:
What’s Eurovision?
Eurovision is an international song contest between European countries. Each year a bunch of European countries send an entry of an original song performed live, broadcast across Europe. Then everyone across Europe gets to vote for their favorite, (you can't vote for your own country), and the winner gets to host next years contest. It's cheesy as fuck. ABBA and Celine Dion are former winners.
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1..) Avengers: Infinity War (DIS), 4,474 theaters / $15.5M Fri (-50%)/3-day: $60M (-48%)/Total: $546M/ Wk 3
2..) Life of the Party (NL/WB), 3,656 theaters / $4.95M Fri (includes $700k previews) /3-day: $17.9M /Wk 1
3..) Breaking In (Uni), 2,537 theaters / $4.3M Fri (includes $615K previews) /3-day: $14.4M /Wk 1
4..) Overboard (MGM/LG), 2,006 theaters (+383) / $2M Fri (-58%)/3-day: $8.8M (-40%) /Total: $28.3M/Wk 2
5..) A Quiet Place (PAR), 3,144 theaters (-269) / $1.8M Fri (-22%) /3-day: $6.1M (-21%) /Total: $169.2M/Wk 6
6..) I Feel Pretty (STX), 2,858 theaters (-374) / $915K Fri (-44%)/3-day: $3.5M /Total: $43.6M/ Wk 4
7..) Rampage (NL/WB), 2,548 theaters (-603) / $750K Fri (-35%)/3-day: $3.1M (-34%) /Total: $89.4M/Wk 5
8..) Tully (FOC), 1,356 theaters (+3) / $569k Fri (-51%)/3-day: $2.35M (-28%) /Total: $7.1M/ Wk 2
9..) Black Panther (DIS), 1,370 theaters (-271) / $547K Fri (-41%) / 3-day: $2.1M (-33%)/Total: $696.4M/Wk 13
10..) Blockers (UNI), 1,111 theaters (-561) / $319K Fri (-42%) /3-day: $1.05M (-40%)/Total: $58.1M/Wk 6
Notables:
Mahanti (UN), 180 theaters / $275k Fri /3-day: $1M /Wk 1
Raazi (UN), 160 theaters / $275k Fri /3-day: $976K /Wk 1
Bad Samaritan… (EL) 1,546 theaters (-461) / $161K Fri (-75%) /3-day: $558K (-68%)/Total: $3.1M /Wk 2
The Seagull (SPC), 6 theaters / $28k Fri /$16K PTA/3-day: $97K /Wk 1
Beast (RSA), 4 theaters / $15k Fri /$12,2K PTA/3-day: $49K /Wk 1
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Part A:
1. Will Life of the Party Open to more than $17.5M? 1000 YES
2. Will Life of the Party Open to more than $22.5M? 2000 NO
3. Will Breaking In open to more than $10M? 3000 YES
4. Will Breaking in open to more than $12.5M? 4000 YES
5. Will Breaking In and Life of the Party's combined OW be more than 50% of Infinity War's weekend gross? 5000 YES
6. Will Champion have a PTA above $6,000? 1000 NO
7. Will Infinity War Make more than $55M? 2000 YES
8. Will Overboard drop more than 44%? 3000 NO
9. Will Bad Samaritan stay above Ready Player One? 4000 YES
10. Will I Feel Pretty stay in the top 6? 5000 YES
11. Will Black Panther's PTA stay above $1,500? 1000 YES
12. Will Super Troopers have a PTA above $600? 2000 NO
13. Will Infinity War increase more than 55% on Saturday? 3000 YES
14. Will Quiet Place increase more than 155% on Friday? 4000 YES
15. How many people will rage because they do not know what Champion is? And then rejoice when they see it is essentially a Korean remake of Over the Top? 5000 IDK
Bonus:
9/15 5000
10/15 8000
11/15 12,000
12/15 16,000
13/15 20,000
14/15 24,000
15/15 30,000
Part B:
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points
2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points
1. What will Life of the Party make for its 3 day? $21,092,142
2. What will Rampage's percentage change be? -33.15%
3. What will Tully's PTA be for the Weekend? $1,991
Part C:
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
2. Life of the Party
6. I Feel Pretty
8. Tully (2018)
9. Black Panther
11. RBG
12. Blockers
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
1/6 4,000
2/6 10,000
3/6 18,000
4/6 25,000
5/6 36,000
6/6 - 50,000
Ocean's 8 Weekend Thread | O8: 41.5...Solo 15.1...DP2: 13.6...Hereditary: 13.0
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Sheikh
The Numbers has Hereditary at 13.5m actual.
37.91% OD.
https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart