IceFire9yt
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Posts posted by IceFire9yt
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I don't see why people are freaking out about that number. It was obviously going to take a hit, and as far as drops go its pretty forgiving.
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A 50.7% drop from last Thursday. So something close to a 50% drop is looking about right so far.
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The MCU formula is:
1.) Make movies that people like, with characters that they like.
2.) After you have multiple successful movies, have those characters meet up in a crossover event. This will draw fans of each individual movie in and feel like an event and draw people in. All the original franchises will be stronger after this movie because of the people exposed to the characters in the event.
3.) Rinse and repeat.
DC and the Monsters Universe failed in step one. Star Wars didn't expand the universe- there are no new characters to have a crossover event with- so really all these prequels are doing are wearing down the event status of the main trilogy. Its honestly conceptually simple. Its so difficult because most studios have a hard time consistently making movies that connect with audiences (heck, even Marvel has a few duds early on), and early on a few flops can absolutely compromise the integrity of the whole project.
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I feel like we've been spoiled by Black Panther and Infinity War. 20M previews is hard to get. None of the 2017 CBMs got there, not even GOTG2.
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Well, right now it's weekdays are showing a 43% drop against last week.
Thor Ragnarok dropped 56% on the Monday through Wednesday the week before Justice League opened, where it had a 62% drop. So if it takes the same kind of hit, we'd see a drop just around 49%.
The Winter Soldier had a 47.2% drop the same period before TASM2 opened, where it dropped 52.1%. So with that kind of hit we'd see a 48% drop.
Its hard to find other good comparisons. Can't use GOTG2 v. Wonder Woman, and several others, because Memorial Day screws that up. So I'm going with a drop just shy of 50%, 30-32M.
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So projecting from those numbers:
WW- 135M
Justice League - 125M
SMH - 131M
Yeah, around 130M is looking likely.
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1 hour ago, Poseidon said:
I'm still completely confused by the trailer clicks for Solo. I'm not sure I have ever seen anything like this for a movie, that is supposed to open to 170m in 10 days.
It added around 500k clicks on YT in the last week, and the clicks were already low to begin with.
Solo Teaser - 12.6M views
Solo Official Trailer - 12.8M
Some comparisons:
Ant Man & Wasp Trailer 1 - 13.9M
Ant Man & Wasp Official Trailer - 19.1M
Mission Impossible - 22M
Fantastic Beasts - 17.3M
Deadpool 2: The Trailer - 34.7M
Deadpool 2 Final Trailer - 24.9M
I mean yeah, trailer views can only tell us so much, but it certainly does seem to be lagging.
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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:
I think we'll find out what new build up is after TA4. I have faith that they know where the story is going beyond Thanos.
I'm not worried at all.
I don't even think there needs to be another overarching arc- at least not immediately. People didn't go to all the phase 3 movies because they were hyped for Infinity War, the Infinity Stones, or Thanos, they went to those movies for a lot of reasons- the characters, the action, the humor, etc. People are going to go to Black Panther's sequel, Spider-man's sequel, The Guardian's sequel. And if Marvel can make their new franchises look fresh and interesting, they'll go to those as well.
I'd be happy if there wasn't another MCU wide teamup for say, 5 years. Have more minor teamups like what we saw in Ragnarok, Homecoming, and The Winter Soldier. That way when the Avengers do come back- its an event again.
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3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:
Infinity War has held very strongly on its past two Sundays. Let's see if Mother's Day changes that.
Mother's Day didn't hurt The Avengers or Age of Ultron, so I wouldn't expect an effect either way.
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I'd be pretty happy with a 16M Friday. Good shot at over 60M with that number.
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The closest parallel in terms of 2nd weekend drop is without a doubt Guardians of the Galaxy 2, both had a 55.5% drop in the second weekend. It had the exact same 2nd weekend drop and Infinity War has held up better over the week than it did.
So it would be reasonable to expect it to follow GOTG2's 3rd weekend drop (-46.9%), which would put it at about 61M.
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So based on the rating distribution for the 9.0 movies, it seems like the 8.4-ish rating is legit. So what sort of multi are we looking at? 1.6x?
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So how does Infinity War's 71% 9-10 rating compare to other movies? I just don't have the context for the number.
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Since last weekend, this has been matching GOTG2 very closely in terms of legs. As of Wednesday (assuming the 7M number holds), Infinity War's multi is 1.86x, while GOTG2's was 1.8x at this point.
Their 2nd weekend drops were identical, and their weekdays are also very similar.
Monday: 3.2% of OW for IW, 3.2% for GOTG2
Tuesday: 4.2% for IW, 4% for GOTG2
Wednesday: 2.7% for IW, 2.7% for GOTG2
The only difference is that IW has slight 'lead' on GOTG2 due to the spillover during its first weekdays. If this continues we could see a 2.7x multi, which would put this in the 690-700M range. Even if it falls behind slightly, to say a 2.6x multi, we'd still get 670M which is nothing to sneeze at.
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So would a decent range be:
Dom: 650-700M
China: 400-500M
OS-China: 950M-1.1B
For a range of 2.0 - 2.3B
Not locked by any means, but looking promising to pass TFA and Titanic.
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Like clockwork, Friday estimates have come in and people start freaking out. Wait 'till Saturday y'all.
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7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
This sounds right. There will be freakouts if Friday is muted (hello BP!) and then
if Saturday jump is massive (hello again, BP!).
So basically a repeat of last weekend. Sounds about right.
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4 minutes ago, bladels said:
BOM doesn't show all countries tho
Ah, that's disappointing. Oh well.
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5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
many markets for ultron and A1 were opened during its 2nd week, and ultron even have 1st may to soften its 2nd week drop....
In the case of IW, almost every country are opened at the same week, save for china, which never be on time either, hence, no much disturbance here to the multiplier
No, I added up the opening weekends of every country listed on Box Office Mojo.
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Correct me if I'm wrong on this. Based international OWs on Box Office Mojo, The Avengers had a 218.7M overseas opening weekend without China, and eventually made 809.2M for a 3.7x multiplier. By the same metric Ultron would have had a 2.7x OS-China multiplier.
3.7x just sounds too good to be true, but anything 3x or higher would be crazy good. It would give us 1.2B OS without China.
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It really is amazing watching this movie effortlessly blow past big hits like Wonder Woman and SMH. It's gonna fly past The AVENGERS next weekend like it's nothing.
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So a 28.2% drop, worse than the Avengers, but better than Black Panther, Civil War, and essentially tied with Age of Ultron. Make of that what you will.
Thursday drops:
BP: -3%
AoU: -8.5%
TA: -9%
CW: -9.1%
So expect a sub 10% drop. 15.3M if it follows the Avengers exactly.
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To put it one way:
On Friday (true Friday), Infinity War was at 108% of The Avengers.
Saturday: 118%
Sunday: 121%
Monday: 131%
Tuesday: 132%
Every day that has passed has it outperforming The Avengers more than the last.
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Looking at the Wednesday drops of the other big openers, we have:
TFA: +1.8%
TLJ: -16.6%
JW: -18.7%
TA: -23%
BP: -29.6%
AoU: -28.3%
CW: -34.8%
Almost looks like there's a correlation here... though I'm not going to put much stock into it.
Still going with any drop better than The Avengers is spectacular- so 18M is my target.
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if Saturday jump is massive (hello again, BP!).
***SPOILER***SPOILER***DEADPOOL 2*** SPOILER***SPOILER
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Just saw this.
Domino was great.
Maybe the best post credit scene ever.
'Sun's getting real low' my sides XD.