IceFire9yt
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Posts posted by IceFire9yt
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In my area, midday shows are at 'only' 20% capacity- flopping!
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Smh, people pretending that the A+ cinemascore means nothing.
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Looks like actuals are getting revised upward just about everywhere.
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Well, at the very least Disney is going to run out of animated movies to adapt to live action. Unless they want to start doing the modern ones lol. Live action Frozen! Who cares if its been less than a decade, gotta get that $$$!
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4 minutes ago, Surajjj said:
Can anyone tell me possible monday scenario? $30M+?
Infinity War's Monday drop off of a 93M Sunday would give 33.2M.
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So I've been checking my city throughout the day (Richmond, Va). Every showing I've checked today has nearly sold out by the time the movie started, including the 8:30-9:00 showings I just checked. The later shows are looking very light, but that could change.
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1 minute ago, Taruseth said:
Yeah, but it had a five day opening in China for example... and also a longer OW in a few other countries.
While that made the OW bigger it will also mean weaker legs. So I agree with you that it should be able to do a 2.3x (though considering China's 3 day Opening) I don't know how much further it will get.
The consensus before OW was that China's 5 day OW would actually hurt it because only one day was a day off. Meanwhile, it has holidays this week.
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Looks like after OW they're holding back much less with the advertising. A pretty good tactic to draw more people in with the spectacle. People who want to remain as unspoiled as possible should probably avoid all new promotional material, though.
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So lets see, countries by % increase over IW.
English speaking:
Domestic- 36% (could go up to like 40% with actuals)
Australia- 36%
UK- 30%
Mainland Europe:
France- 38%
Germany- 76%!!!
Italy- 73%!!!
Spain-55%!
Latin America:
Brazil- 36%
Mexico- 30%
Asia:
China- 65%!!
Hong Kong- 56%!
India- 44%
Indonesia- 24%
Japan- 43%
Phillipines- 43%
South Korea- 21% (flop!)
Taiwan- 25% (flop!)
Thailand- 45%
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For the record, if ticket prices inflate at a rate of 20 cents per year, it would take 16 years for a weekend the size of The Force Awakens to gross 360M. I have a feeling that this record will hold for a while.
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Krabs is Marvel/Disney, Plankton is the other studios trying to make cinematic universes.
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So my stretch goal for this movie is now 982M. That would put it over Snow White adjusted for inflation, meaning Endgame would be in the Top 10 Domestic adjusted for inflation, and the first movie to accomplish this feat since Titanic over 2 decades ago. With 360M, it needs a 2.73x multi to do it, lol.
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5 hours ago, IceFire9yt said:
In my smaller city (Richmond, Va) things haven't been as crazy as some of the trackers have been seeing in the bigger cities. Now though, almost every showing I checked before 9:00 today is nearly sold out, even 3D showings. It seems like the 9-10pm shows are are generally ~50% sold. After 10:00, plenty of seats open.
Yeah... its inevitable, everything tonight will nearly sell out. Sunday is filling up quickly as well, probably >50% full for morning and afternoon showings. Late evening showings are very light though.
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Thursday: 60M
Friday: 96.7M
Saturday: 109M (+12.7%) IW increased 22% from true Friday, the Avengers increased by 12.6%. I'd say the Sunday range is between -15% and -20% from Saturday. Infinity War decreased by 15.7% on Sunday, while The Avengers decreased by 18%. That'd give a Sunday range of 87.2 to 92.7M.
So 353M-358M for the weekend.. If it can somehow get a 10% drop on Sunday due to insane spillover, then we'd be at 98.1M, for a 364M OW.
So, looks like 370M is off the table unless the Saturday numbers go up, but thankfully 357M is easily within reach.
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13 minutes ago, GOATPeterJackson said:
What is the *necessary* (minimum) 2nd weekend multiplier needed to keep Avatar dream alive?
It'll probably need at least 900M domestic to have a shot at Avatar (probably a bit more, depends on OS, but we're talking about the minimum performance needed here), that would be a 2.5x multi off of a 360M opening. The OW is so huge that Endgame can have less than stellar legs and still make a run for TFA domestic and Avatar WW.
Honestly, even a 56-58% drop might be good enough to do that. AoU got a 2.4x multi off of a 59.4% drop. Infinity War got a 2.63x multi off of a 55.5% drop.
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In my smaller city (Richmond, Va) things haven't been as crazy as some of the trackers have been seeing in the bigger cities. Now though, almost every showing I checked before 9:00 today is nearly sold out, even 3D showings. It seems like the 9-10pm shows are are generally ~50% sold. After 10:00, plenty of seats open.
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(this isn't a reaction to anything in particular, just a representation of my general state of mind right now)
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4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Those who are following Hollywood BO from long, has any studio ever adjusted Midnight previews while reporting Friday because TBH 99mn with 60mn doesn't add up. Previews must be higher.
Why doesn't it add up? IW made 67.3M on Friday off of 39M in previews (1.73x). If Endgame makes 99M on Friday off of 60M in previews, that's 1.65x.
I mean, that's crazy, but so is literally everything else about this weekend, so why is that particularly unbelievable?
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Okay, but does it even matter what GoT is going to do to Endgame now? Like, if it knocks 5, 10 million off the gross, at this point its literally just a drop in the bucket, especially since those people are just going to see at at some other point anyway. Like if this grosses 340M instead of 350M.... what's the big deal?
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1 minute ago, The Futurist said:
Really bittersweet Stan Lee couldn't be with us to witness this.
Its okay. He knew.
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2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
The BFI IMAX had a 4am showing, that's dedication.
I imagine the competition like John Wick and Pikachu will be able to co-exist just fine with Endgame due to their different demos. It won't be until the end of May that it'll see big drop-off simply due to the likes of Aladdin, Godzilla and Rocketman.
Even then, it'll benefit from Memorial day and then summer weekdays.
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Out of reactions, just imagine
on every post.
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TFA's going down. Avatar's going down. This is it, the cinematic event of a generation.
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So we're at the point where even if it *only* matches Infinity War's Saturday and Sunday, its still getting over 300M. Wow.
A 155M Friday number would put the previews:Friday ratio at 1.58x. That's less than IW's 1.73x, but better than TFA, DH2, TLJ, RO, and TDKR.
I decided to graph the ratio to the overall weekend multiplier for movies with OW higher than 150M, and got a very strong correlation (R2 of 0.9045). (I left out Spider-man 3, not because it didn't fit the correlation, it fit well enough, but because it was so far out of scale with everything else) That one outlier is BvS, due to Easter I'd assume.
Anyway, if that 155M number holds, this correlation would suggest an opening weekend of 357M.
Hey, at least it'd fit the trend of Avengers movies breaking records 7M over the milestone.
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in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by IceFire9yt
Haha, my area has been weaker for Endgame from the get go, shows filled up slower, fewer later showtimes, etc. Despite that, it seems like everything was full up this weekend until Sunday evening. I live in a small city, so that might have something to do with it (seems like most people who track theaters are from larger cities). 20% capacity still strikes me as strong for a freaking workday, though this is literally the only movie I've looked at so I have no idea tbh.