Taruseth
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Posts posted by Taruseth
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3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:
+4% per Disney.
Insidekino Forum reads similar: 1100k (+3%)
Utterly insane.
Just -5% compared to (4-day) OWend.
Not that those are fair comparisons but Avatar's 4th Wend was down 30% and Titanic's was up! 3%.
Both had really good post holiday legs though - if Avatar is anywhere close to that - wow.
Avatar was pretty steady from 4th trough 8th weekend though and Titanic was, well, Titanic.
3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:The Nazis might have something to do with it since a lot of artists - including directors, actors, writers and composers - had to leave (or simply left) Germany and Austria in the 30's. Classic Hollywood had a big German-speaking community - Fritz Lang, Petter Lorre, Billy Wilder, Erich Korngold, Michael Curtiz ...
https://www.filmportal.de/thema/die-emigration-filmschaffender-waehrend-des-nationalsozialismus
There's also another effect at work I think - and that was after the Third Reich. Movies and comics were considered "lesser" arts (if art at all) and as such got less recognition. The German Feuilleton had a pretty snobby approach to these ... which has changed only in recent decades (concerning comics, the recognition as "real" art only happened in the 21st century here)
The Nazis also hurt the science sector in Germany.
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15 minutes ago, Andreas said:
won't be easy. Needs great holds in Germany and not so good in France.
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1 hour ago, Aristis said:
3rd Trend
Avatar 2 1,07M (+0%) 6,45M - is it really happening? 👀
PiB2 260k (+26%) 1M
Operation Fortune 145k
Really interested if he will change the total prediction to 9m (or maybe even more). Even just following ROs drops from here it would get to roughly 8.15m.
SpoilerOn 12/30/2022 at 11:24 AM, Taruseth said:400k on Thursday (or a little less) - 5.2m € -> ATP only a little above 13 € (that's low)
In 2016 RO had the following weekend drops -55% then +2% and -31% (dropping to second place about 25 % behind Passenger).
Avatar has done -36% and now about +22 %.
Will it be able to do -15% for 750k next weekend?
My hope for the future:
Avatar:
OD: 174k
OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)
OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)
2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k)
2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)
3rd Wend: 900k (Total 4550k)
3rd Wdays: 550k (Total 5100k)
4th Wend: 750k (Total 5850k) (-17%)
4th Wdays: 150k (Total 6000k)
5th Wend: 500k (Total 6500k) (-33%)
5th Wdays: 100k (Total 6600k)
6th Wend: 400k (Total 7000k) (-20%)
6th Wdays: 50k (Total 7050k)
7th Wend: 250k (Total 7300k) (-38%)
7th Wdays: 30k (Total 7330k)
8th Wend: 150k (Total 7480k) (-40%)
8th Wdays: 20k (Total 7500k)
9th Wend: 100k (Total 7600k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend
9th Wdays: 20k (Total 7620k)
10th Wend: 80k (Total 7700k) (-20%)
10th Wdays: 15k (Total 7715k)
After that another 250k for 7965k total and ≈103m € ≈ $109m
Avatar - path to 10m:
OD: 174k
OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)
OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)
2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k) (-36%)
2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)
3rd Wend: 1067k (Total 4716k) (+167k/+166k) (+45%)(differences due to rounding)
3rd Wdays: 660k (Total 5380k) (+110k/+280k)
4th Wend: 1070k (Total 6450k) (+320k/+600k) (+0%)
4th Wdays: 220k (Total 6670k) (+70k/+670k)
5th Wend: 800k (Total 7470k) (+300k/+970k) (-25%)
5th Wdays: 160k (Total 7630k) (+60k /+1030k)
6th Wend: 650k (Total 8280k) (+250k /+1280k) (-19%)
6th Wdays: 120k (Total 8400k) (+70k/+1350k)
7th Wend: 450k (Total 8850k) (+200k/+1550k) (-31%)
7th Wdays: 80k (Total 8930k) (+50k/+1600k)
8th Wend: 300k (Total 9230k) (+150k/+1750k) (-33%)
8th Wdays: 60k (Total 9290k) (+40k/+1790k)
9th Wend: 200k (Total 9490k) (+100k/+1890k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend
9th Wdays: 40k (Total 9530k) (+20k/+1910k)
10th Wend: 150k (Total 9680k) (+70k/+1980k)(-25%)
10th Wdays: 30k (Total 9710k) (+15k/+1995k)
After that another 300k for 10010k (+50k/+2045k) total ATP 13.1€ and ≈131m € ≈ $140m
Comp to Avatar with rereleases (adm/€/$): -14% / +10%/-??%
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25 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Germany finally have another all-time blockbuster level movie since SW7
Yeah, the largest movie after SW7 was Frozen 2 (6.8m admissions).
40 minutes ago, Aristis said:Wow. This is beautiful. And a great weekend ahead. Maybe at last Avatar has this kind of spillover effect as it reminds people of the beauty of cinema.
At this point 8,5M seems like the low end and 9M doesn't require great holds. I always hoped for it to be this big but that it is is still kinda unreal 👀
Next WE will show at last if this trend continues even after the holidays but this 4th WE probably shows already that it does.
Agree, but I don't want to jinx it.
Nonetheless, 6.38m after this weekend is really great and 2m more should most likely happen after this weekend. (Could probably drop close to 40% next weekend and still have a solid shot at 8m)
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5 hours ago, Bruce said:
1m for 4 consecutive weekend is insane
9-10m is the target
That's not going to happen, the 2nd weekend was below 1m (735k).
Nonetheless, if it manages 1m during the 4th weekend, that would be just the second 4th weekend above 1m (the other is Titanic).
And it would have 3 1m weekends, not many movies besides Titanic have managed that: Harry Potter 1, LotR 1,2,3, Hobbit 1, Independence Day, Ice Age 3.
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5 hours ago, Aristis said:
Thursday
#1 Avatar 2 200k (-50%) [€2,6M]
#2 Puss in Boots 2 50k (-40%) [€400k]
#3 Operation Fortune 23k [€215k]
#4 Hotzenplotz 18k (-51%) [€130k]
#5 Oskars Kleid 16k (-45%) [€140k]
900k from that is pretty much exactly the same multi as Rogue One got.
PiB doing so well is really nice to see.
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12 minutes ago, Bruce said:
till when?
I think Tuesday.
3 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:So it made 660k weekdays despite weak Monday? Seems quite good to me.
Anyway, it seems the trend better on weekends than weekdays compared to Rogue One and it keeps improving compared to it. It made about 230% of Rogue One's second set of weekdays compared to 170% over the second set of weekdays. It did about 230% of Rogue One's third weekend. If it keeps improving in about the same rate it could triple Rogue One's third weekend for close to a million? Maybe that's too much to ask for.
It does.
1m will be really, really, really hard - but I don't want to say impossible. I just wouldn't expect it 850-900k would already be really great.
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In Austria its past 600k admissions.
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15 hours ago, LPLC said:
215k admissions on Monday. Is it good or less than expected ?
Okay, I guess, 640k weekdays won't be easy though with that.
Probably more like 550k for the weekdays.
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4 hours ago, Aristis said:
As of Sunday Avatar 2 is the 18th highest grossing movie at the german BO, €63,49M from 4,716M admissions. ATP is down to 13,46€.
Still hoping for 6M admissions next Sunday and €80M cume...
List of highest grossing movies in Germany:
https://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm
And it just had the 9th biggest 3rd WE:
Admissions/theaters / average / year / title
1 1.357.107 1.233 1.101 02 Harry Potter 1 2 1.315.675 1.070 1.230 02 Lord of the rings 1 3 1.297.669 1.266 1.025 03 Lord of the rings 2 4 1.243.964 971 1.281 96 Independence Day 5 1.236.363 888 1.392 12 The Hobbit 6 1.167.468 1.341 871 04 Lord of the rings 3 7 1.118.415 749 1.493 98 Titanic 8 1.072.267 874 1.227 13 The Hobbit 2 9 1.067.150 737 1.448 22 Avatar 2 10 1.028.384 872 1.179 09 Ice Age 3 Needs 1,283,724 Admissions for that.
Taking RO weekdays to the weekend ratio for 3rd week, the weekdays should be 640k and the following weekend 735k, that alone would mean 6090k.
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10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
yeah that is truly a lock.
A lock?
I wouldn't say something that absolute, but I agree it's highly likely.
I thought about the coming weeks again and I am still thinking it's heading towards 9m, but I might have overshot how likely that is (probably like 30-40% right now) - still wouldn't rule out 10m (like 10%) - we have to know how it will hold next weekend. If it drops to like 700k then 8m is probably the ceiling, if it gets to 1000k it should approach 9m and maybe, maybe even can get past that.
Rogue One dropped 31% for Avatar 2 which would mean a 735k weekend, but that would spell trouble because Rogue One had Passenger opening on that weekend, which opened with 413k - probably more than any movie opening in January will make in total. - unless maybe ??? surprised during the last January weekend.
So a clearer January should mean better holds on top of it already holding way, way better than RO.
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$51,111,111
Best 4th weekend ever
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3 hours ago, LPLC said:
So the top 3 all time (in lc) in Germany will be James Cameron at #1, then James Cameron at #2 and finally James Cameron at #3 ? This is interesting and funny
Yeah - needs 103m for #3 that's 8m (or less) and it's very likely it gets there (like 90%).
I think even in admissions there is a solid shot at most adm. since Avatar in 2009 - it needs 9.2m for that - before this weekend I was pretty certain it will fall short - now I'd say it's the area where it's headed.
And maybe it even gets to @Bruce idea of becoming #1 - that would need an insane 9.8m admissions and is made even harder by Titanic getting a rerelease.
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Happy New Year everyone
1050k - wow - I am starting to hope for 1m next weekend (sounds crazy - I know, but considering how much better it's holding than RO).
If Avatar 2 manages 742k over the weekdays it would get the best 3rd week ever.
If it manages 640k over the weekdays it would get the second-best 3rd week ever (only behind the first Harry Potter).
I know that 1m 4th weekend would be the 2nd best 4th weekend ever - only behind Titanic, but one can hope.
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1 hour ago, Agafin said:
So which one is going to be more difficult to top in the future, Endgame's OW or TFA's third weekend?
I'd like to say 3rd, but:
2nd place for OWend is 27.2% behind 3rd weekend is 24.1% behind, but 2nd place is Avatar! not a movie that's just a year old.
The record holder for 3rd weekend:
1997 Titanic 33.3m
2002 Spider-Man: 45m
2009 Avatar 68.5m (still in second place!)
2015 TFA 90.24
So it's a lot more steady.
But I'd say Avatar 3 has a chance (more favourable weekend placement: no New Year's Eve on that weekend) and it opens a couple of months before Avengers: Kang Dynasty - which is the next movie I think has a chance at OWend record.
The 2nd-weekend record could also hold out until at least then:
It's still TFA - and no movie has a shot currently - next year nothing looks big enough and the same goes for the following year - until Avatar 3, but I think Avatar 3 will fall short and actually, I doubt that Avengers Kang Dynasty will do it - even if it manages to break Endgames OWend record, I think it's going to fall short of the second weekend of Endgame and TFA with it - so we might actually see the 2nd hold even longer.
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4 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
The way it's holding up, 8mil admissions total is the lower limit I'd say. 9mil possible and 10mil at least not impossible! Even if holidays will end, there's simply no to very little competition on the horizon, it will keep the bigger and biggest screens all through January and on. Mid-Feb there will be Antman3 but Antman was not very big here.
I like your optimism I am not there yet though - thinking 8m should happen and its heading for 8.5m; though to be honest today doesn't look as bad as new years eve should (or normally does) - so I hope you are right - 9.17m would make it the biggest movie since the first Avatar (with ATP 13€ that would be €119m - so right where the first ended up (with the 2010 and 2022 rereleases)).
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7 minutes ago, Aristis said:
2nd Trend
#1 Avatar 2 1M (+36%) 4,65M
#2 PiB2 205k (+69%/+37%) 565k
#3 Hotzenplotz 90k (+105%)
Awesome for Avatar. Just needs 1,026M for 10th best 3rd WE 👀
You are so quick - and even if it barely misses the 3rd weekend for 10th place on 4th weekend only about 680k are needed.
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Saturday Trend:
Avatar: 1000k! (that makes 8m more likely).
Puss in Boots 2: 205k
Hotzenplotz: 90k
Oskars Kleid: 75k
I wanna dance with somebody: 42.5k
Schule der magischen Tiere 2: 35k (I think this is the 14th week in the Top 10)
Was man von hier aus sehen kann: 27.5k
Top Gun stayed in the Top 10 for 18 weeks and Minions for 16 weeks.
And maybe - maybe we might see Avatar getting to 9m - like 1 % chance.
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5 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:
#1: Avatar 2 - 900k admissions (+22%)
#2: Puss in Boots 2 - 200k (+65%)
#3: Hotzenplotz - 90k (+203% !!)
400k on Thursday (or a little less) - 5.2m € -> ATP only a little above 13 € (that's low)
In 2016 RO had the following weekend drops -55% then +2% and -31% (dropping to second place about 25 % behind Passenger).
Avatar has done -36% and now about +22 %.
Will it be able to do -15% for 750k next weekend?
My hope for the future:
Avatar:
OD: 174k
OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)
OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)
2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k)
2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)
3rd Wend: 900k (Total 4550k)
3rd Wdays: 550k (Total 5100k)
4th Wend: 750k (Total 5850k) (-17%)
4th Wdays: 150k (Total 6000k)
5th Wend: 500k (Total 6500k) (-33%)
5th Wdays: 100k (Total 6600k)
6th Wend: 400k (Total 7000k) (-20%)
6th Wdays: 50k (Total 7050k)
7th Wend: 250k (Total 7300k) (-38%)
7th Wdays: 30k (Total 7330k)
8th Wend: 150k (Total 7480k) (-40%)
8th Wdays: 20k (Total 7500k)
9th Wend: 100k (Total 7600k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend
9th Wdays: 20k (Total 7620k)
10th Wend: 80k (Total 7700k) (-20%)
10th Wdays: 15k (Total 7715k)
After that another 250k for 7965k total and ≈103m € ≈ $109m
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9 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Avatar try to best Germany All-time B.O record
Won't happen.
Admissions are impossible:
The Jungle Book has 27.3m and Titanic has 18.8m (only movies after 1958 considered) all others below 15m.
In € Titanic with 126.6m and Avatar with 119.2m are also pretty safe.
Third place TFA with 102.7m might be reached, but that would need 7.7-7.8m admissions.
And $ won't work either because Avatar had incredible ER (so did like $160-170m).
Right now I'd say 7.5m admissions and €99-100m (~$105m) - and I am probably on the more optimistic side.
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Avatar 2 weekdays: 1100k (total 3650k)
That's great. Apparently, yesterday was the best day since Covid-19 started.
So maybe it can increase on the weekend. At least today and tomorrow should be really good. So 800k (hopefully more) - wouldn't be surprised with 700k though.
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So 735k (total 2547.5k)
Puss: 147.5k
Witney: 40k (ouch)
So can Avatar 2 get 800k next weekend? Following RO it would get to around 750k - or will it drop to 700k?
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1 hour ago, Aristis said:
Less than 40% drop is great considering the constellation. I *hope* for a 1M+ midweek and that wish shouldn't be too bold 👀
I think there is a very solid chance for 1m (like 85 %) - I hope for a bit more.
If we take Rogue One's weekend-to-weekday-ratio Avatar ends with 1003k over the weekdays.
Hoping for a better ratio - but I am not that certain.
46 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:8M admits is still on the table?
On the table - yes - likely - not really. The coming weekdays and the following weekend should give us a lot better idea.
33 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:WOM seems excellent, this should be the biggest 24th-on-a-Sunday weekend ever! Sadly, onle one other release >50k ...
Saturday*
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BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Taruseth
If we go by € then the difference is far crazier.
Titanic probably had about 7m?.
And Hobbit1, HP1, Lotr1 all had a bit below 7m.
TFA had 6.74m
Avatar 2 will double that.