jedijake
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Posts posted by jedijake
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Dumbo would have been much better in MPR's spot as it has a broader audience. But musicals fare better over the holidays than in random release dates so.....who knows.
MPR's numbers are just upsetting for those who were rooting for it.
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Imagine if MPR makes TFA's multiplier. It would be no better than Into The Woods. People talk about "legs" and while the holidays will help it be consistent for a little while, after the holidays I think MPR is going to fade REALLY fast despite any praise Blunt gets.
TGS was more mature and artsy. It appealed to teens more and had the love story attached. It had hotter names for young people (teens) and was more Broadway-like to appeal to the 20's and 30's (and 40's for that matter). MPR has Blunt but I'm not sure if she alone can bring in folks from all ages by herself.
And if Aquaman's fun factor, despite the RT scores, can bring in the numbers it is, I HOPE that JJ Abrams has brought us a fun SW movie to close out that story. Aquaman, Jumanji, and looking back years ago at Night at the Museum should tell us something. People LOVE fun films over the holidays. MPR seems fun but in a different way that isn't appealing to the masses in this day and age.
Disney will end up with quite a bit more underperformers this year than big successes.
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Poppins isn't making $200 million. Had the same conversation about legs with folks who kept saying legs would push TLJ to $700 mill, then just beating Titanic, then JW, then just Avengers. Called $620 million when the $21 million Monday came in and heard what people were saying. School's still in, last minute shopping, parties, travel, blah blah blah. Numbers are numbers. Speaks for itself sometimes. For MPR sake, it never had mass audience appeal. $20-$25 million 3-day Ow is abyssmal. Only major Oscar talk can help it, not just Blunt. $175-$180 milion domestic is where it may be heading.
Disney dominated the first half of the year with (drumroll) superhero films.
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Looks like there will be no contest whatsoever between the family friendly MPR and the superhero AM. Superheroes come out on top once again!
This is a thing. A BIG thing. Wonder when the superhero fad will wind down.
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1 hour ago, boyamama said:
yes it's tracking to 90-100 M 3 days now...
Is it really?
If that's true then it will certainly soar past $300 million domestic. Wow!
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Aquaman's previews are double MPR's opening day???!!!???😮
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I think the only two real specific complaints were (1) non-blue Genie which we KNOW is because people didn't read the article and (2) the Yankees uniform Aladdin is wearing under his vest. Who knows where they are going with that. But those are two small complaints and one isn't even legit. Nothing about the movie. Set pics don't say much. The EW Captain Marvel stuff was ATROCIOUS.
No matter the film, whenever they show actors and actresses dressed in costume on the cover they all look like cosplay folks.
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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:
Everything about those EW pics screams hot disaster to me. Definitely starting to get floppage vibes.
Because that is what a lot of other people are saying?
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I think there was strategy with the cover. It was mostly a main cast ensemble photo. They felt they needed to show Smith's face for familiarity, not realizing the backlash on how he looked. Meanwhile (hopefully) when people see the real deal (Feb? March? April?) they will be pleasantly surprised.
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1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:
There’s no reason to think this is gonna flop
Domestically i don’t expect nothing huge but under $ 200M is just dumb... this will probably land between $ 250-300M which is good enough.
But OS will be huge, the brand is much bigger than BTAB was... even with the strong competition it has a good shot at +600M.
WW could be anywhere between $ 850-950M and i bet Disney will be happy.
Agreed. It should easily clear $200 million domestic by the 2nd weekend.
That said, the early and unfounded toxic online talk either has to die down or it will corrode the film's potential. That is just where we are as a society. The film is already a massive target for hatred and that could cost it up to $100 million domestic and who knows how much WW. Will Smith's appearance on the cover is also damaging and they will have to repair the sentiment early in 2019 with a killer pic or trailer with Will as the Genie. People don't read and most people missed it when Will said he WILL be blue.
But I do think that in 2019, due to Disney's near monopoly on the film industry, there will be a LOT of negative online wildfire with the exception of End Game which is immune.
And watch-it will happen with Lion King too. Just wait.
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Jumanji vs Poppins? Terrible comparison. Makes absolutely no sense at all.
Jumani was a funny action film with stars that were "hip" like Hart and Johnson as well as Marvel's own Gillan and hilarious Jack Black. Humor + action + effects + a little bit of familiarity=hit.
I never quite understood who MPR was aimed for. As I've said, that critical 18-35 crowd gets lost with this one.
I don't see it having legs. Holidays are its only hope to reach $200 million. It needs to be consistent and it can do that. However, after the holidays, it will drop like a brick unless it surprises us with key Oscar noms.
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96% better than Greatest Showman doesn't mean it's going to earn 96% more. MPR needs tremendous WOM to get the multiplier. It's a known property unlike TGSM. It will do consistent numbers over the holidays. After that, unless it has a bunch of Oscar nods, it will fade fast.
Is $200 million DOM guaranteed? I'd say no looking at that $4.8 million.
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$4.8 million opening day. Ouch!
$220 million domestic at the highest is what I'm seeing. That's not bad, but it has to get there.
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Is "boffo" good or bad? Because I have MPR at $210-$220 million domestic.
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20 minutes ago, cookie said:
I don’t really get the notion that the release date guarantees bomb or underperformer. Does anyone honestly think Tomorrowland, Alice 2 or Solo would’ve performed better at any other time?
Exactly! It's anecdotal. There's a recent correlation but no causation.
And I really wonder if Aladdin is really deserving all of the alleged hate this early based on a few set pics. There's too much groupthink due to online social media. When I saw Brie Larson as Captain Marvel I thought she looked terribly corny. But I am excited about Brie as Captain Marvel.
But I am strange. Maybe I am just older and can appreciate things more than I could when I was younger. I liked Nutcracker, Crimes of Grindewald, and POTC5. I hated Alice2 and Wrinkle in Time though. I wasn't crazy about Thor Ragnorak. But I thought Black Panther and IW were two of the best movies that have come out in a LONG time, much better than TFA. But those are individual opinions not based on any social media. I think that social media has really hurt pop culture because people really feel like they have to follow the herd to avoid being insulted or shunned.
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4 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:
Lol at people who think that this dud is making Beauty and the Beast money. Disney didn't stick Beauty and the Beast in it's death slot for a reason. This film looks ridiculous and not in a good way. I would be stunned if this movie didn't disappoint.
LOL at people who are declaring this a dud 6 months before release.
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21 minutes ago, movieboner said:
I smell box office disaster for these reasons:
Release date- it was bad idea to release it on Memorial Day. BO data shows that films fare poorly on this weekend. There's way too much competition. It's going to be a crowded hot sweaty summer.
Early buzz- they shouldn't have released those images when the film is early in development. The film is being trashed on social networks for its portrayal of Genie, Aladdin and the style of the film.
Guy Ritchie- Disney hired the wrong director for this film, but i hope he succeeds.
Audience fatigue- Like what i said earlier, it's too crowded and audiences might get tired of seeing blockbuster after blockbuster or save money to go see bigger titles like Avengers 4, the lion king, toy story 4, detective pikachu, and Godzilla 2.
Memorial Day isn't causing movies to fail. That's just a loose correlation based on a few films.
And what exactly comprises a failure?
And early twitter buzz? We can write a book on what's going on with that. I do agree, though, that even if the negative press isn't warranted, it has an effect. That's just the world and times we are living. It's not the film's fault but it's the film's problem. Plus. people don't read the articles.
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I guess I am foolish to think this is the Aladdin thread. Silly me I didn't realize it was the Godzilla thread. I thought there already was one of those.
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1 minute ago, TheBigYawn said:
lol maybe some people are capable of forming their own opinions? I'm not even on Twitter.
I'm not so sure if people on twitter are capable of that anymore.
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The way things are going as of now, this movie has no chance in hell. People are jumping on the hate bandwagon left and right. Even saw some people on Facebook I know saying how awful this looks. I'm betting they are into twitter and are just wanting to say what twitter says.
It's much easier to criticize a movie that has early praise (Mary Poppins Returns) than it is to praise a movie that has early negative press. Solo never recovered the minute it got the slightest amount of unfounded negative press. This movie may suffer the same fate. Had it been left alone or got "hmmm...this looks pretty decent" it would end up being fine. I'm not so sure-not in this day and age. If twitter says it looks bad, then EVERYONE will say it looks bad.
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The internet's gonna be brutal to Disney films this coming year. Wow!
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The target audience for MPR was always something that made me scratch my head. Older people don't go to the movies enough to drive up numbers. Kids will go with their parents. MP isn't as "hip" of a musical as, say, The Greatest Showman (has Zendaya, Jackman, and Efron) or others. I'm prepared for overall disappointing numbers.
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What comprises "hurt"? I think all of the premature hatred is more harmful. Godzilla has its audience. Aladdin has its audience. The two don't really blend.
So, does it cause Aladdin to make less than $400 million domestic? Less than $350 million? Less than $300 million?
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Disney's trying to maximize the films they will put onto their Disney Plus streaming in late 2019/early 2020. The more new films they can launch, the more people will sign up immediately. That's the reason they are releasing so much next year.
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MARY POPPINS RETURNS | Disney | 12.19.18 | Rob Marshall directing | Emily Blunt, Lin Manuel Miranda
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
MPR won't get close to TGSM's legs. TGSM's legs were the result of building WOM. MPR was already well publicized and the great WOM came from reviews on social media a week or two before release. It already had its explosion of good WOM. That came and went and the dust has already settled from that blitz and left behind a trail of poor opening days. $23 million 3-day opening is hard if not impossible to recover from especially considering the peak of positive buzz came prior to official opening. Now it's more of a "meh" reaction from everyone else. Doesn't bode well after the holidays.