Jump to content

jedijake

Free Account+
  • Content Count

    1,093
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

618 Likes

About jedijake

  • Rank
    Box Office Gold

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Based on the internal multipliers of TFA and TLJ, that would give TROS an OW of between $170-$185 million. Is that accurate?
  2. Opening weekends such as 12/19-12/21 and 12/21-12/23 are close enough to use as comparisons also. But yeah, I see what you are saying about previews. That does change things.
  3. I see your point. However, if you look back at the past 15-20 years, every movie that did open in the same weekend or similar weekend dropped VERY little the next weekend. Sure, TROS will be much bigger than them, but when all other films dropped 10%, 15%, maybe 20%, surely TROS can hold on enough to drop less than 40%?
  4. But is a non-holiday to holiday drop (like Hobbit 2 and TT) an equal comparison to the holdiay-holiday drop (that TROS will experience?) I think there are plenty who would argue that TROS should see a smaller drop in its second weekend.
  5. A huge drop in its second weekend will be harmful to its overall domestic run, no? It will probably have made around 84-85% of its total domestic run by Sunday, January 5. 12/20-12/22: $190 million 12/23-12/26: $120 million 12/27-12/29: $90 million 12/30-1/2: $60 million 1/3-1/5: $45 million That's $505 million. If it's 84%, the total will be $601 million 84.5%: $598 million 85%: $594 million. The holds will have to be extraordinarily strong through the holiday and afterward for it to get close to TLJ's domestic run under these circumstances.
  6. Correct me if I am wrong, but I'd think that TROS could potentially hold better than TT or DOS since it will be fresher?
  7. The Sunday hold will be interesting. Two Towers (2002) and Hobbit: DOS (2013) both had sub-20% drops on that Sunday (December 22) and had already been out for more than a weekend. Likewise, the second weekend for TROS will be equally interesting. Both of those movies had very small drops. If WOM is decent, the drops SHOULD be very very small for a week at least (except Christmas Eve, BUT TFA only dropped 29% for Christmas eve).
  8. Everyone is banking on the idea that the film will open less than TLJ (quite a bit less) but have stronger legs and will edge out TLJ overall. All I can say is that it's a LOT to bank on, especially with the, ehem, less than stellar media campaign that has been unfolding all around it. I mean, WOM or not, there are already a LOT of people who have made up their minds about this film for a long time now and refuse to keep an open mind. Look at any media article that comes out and then look at the comments. 99% of the comments are something to do with how much Disney has destroyed SW, SW sucks, TLJ was horrible, etc.
  9. Boyega doesn't seem all that happy at all. His reaction to TROS wasn't necessarily positive. "A lot to take in" doesn't sound like someone who enjoyed it. And now his comments in this newly published interview. And notice how little his character has been marketed in trailers. Kind of head scratching at the very least.
  10. IW and EG had the "everyone else is seeing it so I guess I should too" thing going for it for previews and OW. The more people who got tickets, the more pressure there was on others. TROS may not have that. Instead, it may have the "is it good?" thing going for it leading to better holds.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.