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nguyenkhoi282

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Posts posted by nguyenkhoi282

    Weekday Numbers (3/25-28)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    18 hours ago, fmpro said:


    It must be a quality thing

    The funny thing is that their ratings on RT are quite close, some JW4 even higher.

     

    Tomato - Top Critics - Verified Audience

    JW4: 94% (8.1/10) - 89% (7.6/10) - 93% (4.6/10)

    DP2: 93% (8.4/10) - 88% (7.6/10) - 95% (4.7/10)

     

    I know which one is better but the metrics' matching

     

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    Weekdays Thread (3/11-14)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

     

    In Variety's Weekend Box Office Predictions (published today), they mention that  "“Dune 2” has generated $162 million domestically and $375 million globally."

     

    Box Office: ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ Poised to Rule Again as Mark Wahlberg’s ‘Arthur the King’ Targets $10 Million Debut

     

    https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-mark-wahlberg-arthur-the-king-opening-weekend-estimates-1235940972/

    That means 213M OS which is the exact same amount as on Sunday. 

    WW total by Wednesday should be right over 400M (171.5M DOM - 230M OS).

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    DUNE II | 395.8M overseas | 660.7M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by nguyenkhoi282

    18 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

    Remove china debut, the holdover markets drop around 40% this session. Looks like the some meh holds in Asia or LATAM offset the great hold in European market.

     

    to be frank I am not entirely certain if this can hit 700m, even knowing that Japan and Middle East are still on their way. 

    Idk where the drops happened but here in Vietnam the thing dropped 1%. Essentially flat. It's like the biggest thing on social media right now.

    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

    $300m DOM is a possibility. Also, people saying Dune would make $100m OW were still closer than you who said it would make $65m OW despite no trackers corroborating that.

    Even if it somehow makes 1B he will definitely go on talking about some random dudes on twitter/reddit predicting 1.4-1.6B because that's his way of coping with reality.

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    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, leoh said:


    “How are we somehow making a clear win sound like a flop?”

     

    Answer: because some people keep setting others for deception/disappointment when they keep the 300M+/1bi talk! And I’m not talking specifically about anyone on this forum. Many people here follow other “trackers”/“insiders”/“experts”/etc on social networks who know that keeping the 300M/1bi talk will make them get more followers.


    They keep the comparison to Oppenheimer box office, but they (maybe intentionally) forget mentioning the fact that Dune 2 first week made ~17M less than Oppenheimer domestically (and Oppenheimer ended up getting 329M). More importantly, Oppenheimer first week made ~17M more than Dune 2 having only IMAX, while every Dolby Cinema was taken over by Barbie, and other PLFs were never an Oppenheimer exclusive. Whereas Dune 2 had every single IMAX and every other PLF but still made 17M less than Oppenheimer. Plus Oppenheimer had the benefits of summer season, something that Dune 2 doesn’t have. Conclusion from these facts is pretty easy to get, it’s unpopular though. People should be celebrating Dune to make 200M (2x its 2021 BO), but instead they are sorry because they believed in the 300M+/1bi fantasy.

    1B WW is a fantasy but 300M DOM is not. 

     

    It was exactly you that were celebrating and berating others when Dune 2 opening FRI was less than needed for 80M and the same "it never going to make 80M OW". Guess what? You disappear when it does well and come back at any chance to bring the movie and its BO performance down. I can tell when it hits 300M it's still you gonna comfortably ignore what you said earlier and jump on a new goalpost. 

    • Like 10

    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by nguyenkhoi282

    17 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

    That's so disappointing for Dune 2. Great for Panda 4, but I just wish it wasn't eating into Dune's lunch.

    I want to be excited for this, but after how hollow and dull the first movie was, I don't really feel anything. They'll create another 90-minute key jingling session and it'll still make more than all three Sonic movies combined even if it pulls a King of the Monsters and drops off a lot because of the lack of novelty, because there's no justice in this world.

    "so disappointing" is over saying it LMAO. Its 2nd weekend is identical to Oppenheimer and still pointing towards 300M finish.

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    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Voldy is saying 20.5M SAT, which would be a 66% jump over FRI, a bit lower than my 70%+ range. It should be due to larger raw gross than my Oppie & Avatar comps. SAT jumps should be even larger in upcoming weeks.

     

    47M 2nd weekend (-42%) / FSS (-33%) => 158M

    2nd weekdays = 5.1 + 5.8 + 4.6 + 4.5 = 20M => 178M

    3rd weekend = 9 + 15 + 11 = 35M (-25%) => 213M 

    3rd weekdays = 15M => 228M 

    4th week = 32M (-36%) => 260M

    5th week (GvK) = 18M (-44%) => 278M

    Remaining = 12+8+5+3+2 = 30M => 308M

     

    IMO, 250M is locked, 275M is comfortable and 300M is in reach.

     

     

     

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    • Astonished 1

    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by nguyenkhoi282

    To back up my point, it wasn't that I just pull numbers out of nowhere. Someone recommend looking at jumps by other long movies and I did.

     

    The Batman: Pure FRI drop from wknd 1 to wknd 2 ~ 46%, but SAT drop only 17%. If only look at % jump from 2nd FRI to 2nd SAT then we see only +51%, but remember how ridiculous Dune 2 jumped on its 1st SAT, way more than any other movies. Dune 2 pure Fri-Fri is - 42%. If it followz The Batman pattern and drop only 17% SAT to SAT, that's 24M for 2nd SAT.

     

    Oppenheimer: Looking at its pattern in September (non-summer), FRI jumps often around 80-90%, and SAT jump 70-80%. If Dune 2 follow suit, would be 21-22M 2nd SAT.

     

    Avatar 2: Looking at its pattern in March, FRI jumps often around 100-120%, and SAT jump 100%+. If Dune 2 sees similar jump, yeah, 24M 2nd SAT.

     

    Granted, both Oppenheimer and A2 was down to the final legs of their run with single digit million daily gross, so it's idk if it applies with much larger raw number, but the predence do exists. Let's wait and see.

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    Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 hours ago, von Kenni said:

     

    I shouldn't even reply to your misleading and deceiving post but @Daxtreme had such a perfect description of what you have been consistently doing that speaks volumes:

     

    ----

     

    Concern trolls say they are fans of something, "oh I so want it to be good, but..."

     

    The "but" is key here.

     

     

    They're always "concerned" about the success of something but "hey, I'm a big fan, I'm just concerned!"  Then if you stalk their messages you realize that the only coherent line of thought throughout is that they actually want it to fail. AKA, the opposite of what they're saying. They only act like an ally because being an upfront hater is ill-perceived, especially in close-knit communities, so concern trolling it is (it's more subtle, harder to spot)

     

    Perfectly said

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