TomeRide
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Posts posted by TomeRide
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I ran a few numbers and I don't think we're realizing how big this 2nd weekend could be. These are the 1st Thursday-2nd Weekend multipliers for the major Memorial Day openers from the since 2014:
A Quite Place 2 – 4.95x
Aladdin – 6.69x
Solo – 6.68x
Pirates of the Caribbean 5 – 6.44x
X-Men Apocalypse – 6.4x
Tomorrowland - 7.86x
X-Men DoFP- 6.54x
The obvious exceptions seem to be A Quiet Place 2 and Tomorrowland, with the former more affected by Covid (as well as being a horror flick), and the latter by far the smallest of the bunch.
That leaves a pretty consistent range of 6.4x-6.7x. Basing on a flat Thursday, i.e. $14.82M, that would translate to $94.8M-$99.3M. Even just a 5x multiplier on a $14M Thursday gets it to $70M, which might be the floor for the weekend.
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On 8/22/2019 at 12:48 PM, Tower said:
BOM has stopped updating Israeli numbers and now we don't get regular numbers at all, but The Lion King is doing so well that it made the news as the first film to go over a million admissions since Avatar (1,185,941), and is on its way to pass that one eventually. It's also on its way to about double the original Lion King which got 600K admissions.
Holy fuck. I knew it was really successful here but this is just insane. Really annoying we don't get box office numbers regularly here.
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One comp that I barely see coming up in conversations is Dunkirk. While they differ in rating and genre, both are new, original, acclaimed releases from the biggest auteurs in town, both have basically the same release date, and they both draw an old crowd. Two years ago Dunkirk opened to $50.5M on almost the same amount of theaters, off of $5.5M in Thursday previews (6PM start), and legged out to $188M.
I think its certainly possible we can see numbers in that ballpark, considering Thursday is already looking to deliver. With Leo on board it might even get a similar 36/64 split (may I remind everyone that he dragged The Revenant to $349M overseas and The Wolf of Wall Street to $275M).
Of course there are Django Unchained and Inglorious Basterds to look at, but Django was a Christmas release on a Tuesday, while Basterds is already 10 years old. Hollywood might target their inflation adjusted totals $145M-$184M, but for a day to day basis, I think Dunkirk is probably the best comp, especially if Hollywood overpreforms and goes above previous Tarantino works.
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52 minutes ago, john2000 said:
50 for sec weekend would be around 45 % drop ?
The Amazing Spider-Man dropped 45% on its second weekend, off of the same Tuesday release. I don't that's asking too much from FFH, especially with better wom.
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14 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:
https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/spiderman-far-from-home-box-office-tracking-1203239357/
Seems to likely to be pretty low, though we'll have to keep our eye on how presales go over the next few weeks.
How fucking lazy and safe. They just took the 6-day total of Homecoming. And a sequel should be more frontloaded than its predecessor, so that would point to a sub-$300M total, which isn't happening. That number should be at the very least $180M+ (which would lead to around the same total as Homecoming), or in my opinion just $200M+.
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29 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
Deadline always does this. They always try and argue that the initial tracking is where the movie ends up. Endgame could have done 3M in previews, and Deadline would have still said "It's on track for a massive 300M weekend" lol
Tbf, its 'true' weekend was $297M so they weren't wrong...
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58 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
Only a 32% drop from last Wednesday. Amasing hold. Pretty much guarantees a $25M+ 3rd weekend. I can see it playing out something like this:
Thursday - $4.7M (-8%).
Friday - $7.5M (+60%, muted hold with SLoP2 opening and inflated Summer weekdays).
Saturday - $10.9M (+45%).
Sunday - $8.2M (-23%).
3rd weekend - $26.6M (-38%).
That would give it a $234.4M 17-day total, which would basically lock $300M+, imo, considering next weekend's weak competition and the two boosts its going to get for its late legs with Toy Story 4 and The Lion King.
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With Endgame passing $800M at the domestic box office, its just accured to me just how popular the MCU has become in NA over the last decade. While I won't try to make the argument its more popular than Star Wars (I mean, The Force Awakens did sell 10M+ more tickets than what Endgame will end with), its prevelancy in the top of the domestic chart is pretty damn similar to Star Wars in its prime.
4 out the current 8 highest grossing films of all time are from the MCU with Endgame (#2), Black Panther (#4), Infinity War (#5), and the original Avengers (#8). Comparatively, back in 1983, Star Wars (#2), Return of the Jedi (#4), and The Empire Strikes Back (#6) occupied 3 of the top 6 spots.
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58 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:
I think July can handle more than one $1B-movie.
Obviously, TLK will be the bigger hit but that’s not gonna stop Spidey too much.
July 2011 handled both Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II just 2 weeks apart from each other. That was 2011. July 2019 will be fine.
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45 minutes ago, RtheEnd said:
I'm trying to stay conservative from couple hours ago 148-153m
It's mental
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Tbh, this number just makes me appreciate DH2's midnights all the more. $43.5M in half the time that Endgame had, and with 2011 ticket prices. What the actual fuck.
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Thursday = $60M
Friday = $80M-$83M (using Jatinder very early estimates)
Saturday = $90M-$95M (up around 12%-15% from true Friday; IW was up 22%, iirc)
Sunday = $80M-$85M (expecting Sunday to be slightly higher than true Friday like IW; would be just a ~11% drop from Saturday with the help of massive spillovers)
Total = $310M-$323M
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26 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
There were some people seriously throwing around low 900s just a few days ago, can you imagine
The trades still won't call the $1B+ WW opening even with $200M+ already from China alone, and $300M+ WW just from Wed + Thu. SMH 😂
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1 minute ago, terrestrial said:
#Comscore's#PostTrak#Australia - Early audience reaction for#AvengersEndgame
5 out of 5 stars - 88 Total Positive Score 68% of patrons would "definitely recommend" the film to their friends. 94% have seen previous films in the series. @Avengers@Comscore#comscoremoviesA+ Cinemascore incoming...
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3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
24 Hours for me. Been waiting 4 years for more scenes with Hawkguy, i hope it was worth the wait.
No worry. He was one of the best parts of the movie, at least imo.
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HOLY FUCKING SHIT GUYS. This movie was insane. That third act is as incredible as everyone says it is. Believe the hype!!!
(repost from the International thread as I posted there incidentally out of excitement during the credits, lol)
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HOLY FUCKING SHIT GUYS. This movie was insane. That third act is as incredible as everyone says it is. Believe the hype!!!
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11 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said:
Super duper early read on Indonesia's OW:
$20.5-$23.2M
Could exceed $24M, I don't know.
My brain is exploding.
Will surely update after actual OD numbers are available.
Holy Fuck
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22 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
In just 3 hours, pre-sale are 2nd highest of all time behind Baahubali 2 ₹100cr plus. Number 3 is Infinity War at ₹40cr Approx.
Damn. Thanks!
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19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
INOX Advance
Day 1: ₹8.2cr
Day 2: ₹2.8cr
Day 3: ₹4.3cr
Total: ₹15.3cr
India advance ₹50-55cr Approx
2.5mn tickets Approx.
Can you give some perspective on those numbers? Not that familiar with the market, especially when it comes to pre-sales.
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3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:
Wow I wonder how they got their hands on the actual number
Its said to be from yesterday's AMC investor presentation:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000155837019003050/ex-99d1.htm
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Can anyone post the updated presales for each day?
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The MCU has offically entered Star Wars' level of presales.
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12 minutes ago, LexJoker said:
Good Friday?
Yep.
Weekday numbers July 24-27
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Barbie - $96.75M
Oppenheimer - $51.2M