TomeRide
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Posts posted by TomeRide
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How's Sunday looking?
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45 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:
OMGGGGGGG
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Mary Poppins Returns - $350M
Aquaman - $285M
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - $190M
Bumblebee $130M
The Mule - $80M
Holmes and Watson - $70M
Vice - $65M
Mortal Engines - $45M
Single Act - $35M
Welcome to Marwen - $25M
We still don't information on how wide Once upon a Deadpool will play so I'm not gonna bother with it.
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52 minutes ago, DAJK said:
I mean 500 is obvs locked for BR, but how are people seeing 600? Are there any more markets left to open?
I'm thinking 35 more in Domestic, but another 80+ overseas?
It still has Italy and South Africa left to open, and with the crazy holds its having overseas $600M is basically locked. I'd go as far as to bet it'll also pass $650M.
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5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Off topic. Will any film ever break the PTA record of The Lion King. Freaking $793,377.
I have no idea how that number was even physically possible. How much did they charge for a ticket?
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18 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
This is 2.0 BTW
WTF did I just watch, lol. Those smartphone monsters are glorious.
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6 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
Better drop than Wonder, against much tougher competition. Color me impressed.
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7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
As bad as Kosner portrayal of Robin Hood was, the movie as a whole was very enjoyable and entertaining. It should never be compared to this new POS
Its domestic total will end up lower than Constner's 1991 opening weekend, lmao.
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16 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:
Polar Express (which also had a third weekend at Thanksgiving) made approximately half of its domestic total after Thanksgiving weekend. Granted, it had better holds going into the weekend, but that would still put The Grinch at crossing 300m even if its legs are worse.
Polar Express was released 14 years ago and had far better drops than what The Grinch is having. In addition, December this year is going to be a whole lot more competitive than 2004, especially for screens and theaters. So really its a terrible comparison. Looking at recent comps for November animations that opened before Thanksgiving (Big Hero 6, The Peanuts Movie, Trolls, The Star), $260M-$270M looks like the best case scenario. Currently I would bet on $245M.
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Any early word on how the Lion King trailer is received in China?
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1 hour ago, a2k said:
Coco and Moana did 2.9 and 3x their 5-day respectively. Looking at some front-loading I think 2.6-2.7x for WIR2.
87.5-92.5 5-day gives 227.5-249.75 with that multiplier.
Beating Grinch is not set in stone yet and will be fun to track!
I don't think its looking at such a bad multiplier. Bigger numbers will help it stay in more theaters and for longer throughout the year-end holidays, especially compared to Coco (which thanks to a much lower opening and The Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji 2, Pitch Perfect 3, and The Greatest Showman only played in 2,100 theaters come Christmas. Btw, that's also why it had such a bad multiplier compared to Moana, at 2.88x vs 3.03x).
I would be really surprised if it went any lower than 2.7x. My prediction would be around 2.8x. With a $90M opening it would end up with a little over $250M in total, and I don't see how The Grinch is matching that with all the theaters its going to lose by Christmas.
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1 hour ago, a2k said:
drop of 1.6% from Tue. Tue and Wed has been worse than JL.
Movie Tue Wed
FB1 +38% +18%
JL +41% -1%
FB2 +37% -1.6%
It should be noted that Crimes of Grindelwald faced a whole lot more competition than Justice League on those days (Ralph Breaks the Internet + Creed 2 + Robin Hood + Green Book >>> Coco). Hopefully that could mean a better hold through the weekend and until the big end-year releases drop on December 14th.
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10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:
As such, Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the first big movie to hit the marquee following Thanksgiving, and should the film –which we hear is great– comes up short in its opening weekend, it will likely find an audience in the post-season holiday.
We’re hearing a $30M+ start is reasonable for this movie, but it could jump up as high as $40M. At this point the pic is strong with males younger and older (25) and young females under 25. As a comp, as animated superhero movies based off comic books typically are released directly into the home entertainment market (i.e. DC pics), Spider-Verse‘s opening would be higher than Warner Bros./Miramax’s toon revival of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, TMNT which bowed to $24.2M.
Just a reminder that Box Office Pro predicted $22M, lol.
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10 hours ago, jedijake said:
What's the status of Indy 5? No production, no filming date, no cast? Not so sure about this one. Is it coming in 2021?
Was indeed pushed to July 9th, 2021.
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21 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:
I also feel exchange rates will hurt but simultaneously China will be its saving grace. I’m not in the $800M or even $500M camp like some users are but I can see a decent $300M.
Thinking something like: $120M/$600M/$2.2B/$2.8B
$300M is just too fucking low. The original made $200M right before the market expansion. I don't think people get how obscene $200M was for China back then. Just consider the fact that it broke the previous record by almost 4 times in local currency (almost 5 times in USD). This baby isn't falling below $500M in China.
And its definitely opening above $120M domestically. If ticket price inflation continues in its current pace (about 3.3% a year), then we're looking at around $9.9 a ticket by the release of Avatar 2. That means the first film's opening adjusts to $100M. I don't see how its opening only 20% higher than that. Its going for $140M+, at the very least.
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3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:
4 billies no less
Hey man, lets not get ahead of ourselves.
$3.5B would be fine too.
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How's Sunday looking?
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That number is mostly based on early east coast screenings, and that area was affected by the blizzard. West coast will be stronger and that number will go up.
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2 minutes ago, Morning Works said:
45 second weekend
Ain't no way its dropping less than 50% on its second weekend, let alone just 40%.
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9 minutes ago, Porthos said:
The only other recent big movie that had sneaks that I can recall was last year's Jumanji, which had an Amazon promotion of some sort the week before.
Ocean's 8 and Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation also had some sneak previews this past summer.
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12 minutes ago, Porthos said:
.3876x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.
.6297x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report.
.6274x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report.
.8815x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report.
.8194x as many tickets sold as JW:FK at final report.
1.1081x as many tickets sold as AM&tW at final report.
1.1358x as many tickets sold as Venom at final report.
$39M x 0.3876 = 15.12M
$25.2M x 0.6297 = $15.87M
$18.6M x 0.6274 = $11.67M
$14.1M x 0.8815 = $12.43M
$15.3M x 0.8194 = $12.54M
$11.5M x 1.1081 = $12.74M
$10M x 1.1358 = $11.36M
These seven films average to $13.1M. It seems to me like the bigger numbers of Infinity War and Black Panther are skewing the comps, considering the rest of them all fell within a range of just $1.38M. Excluding Infinity War and Black Panther, the average goes down to $12.15M, which seems more reasonable. Now, the Tuesday sales ended up as 16.38% of all sales, which translates into $1.99M. Without those sales, the average for Thursday alone is $10.14M.
So, either this this area really overperformed, or this film will need to be more frontloaded than Solo or BvS in order to fall to pre-opening expectations (even their slightly below 6x multipliers would get it to around $73M). I lean on the former, but still these presales suggest to me that below $10M is highly unlikely at this point (at least when counting in the Tuesday previews, which everyone will), and I stand by my prediction from earlier today of $10.5M-$11M for the full previews, and $75M for the weekend.
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11 hours ago, Porthos said:
.3275x as many tickets sold as Infinity War one day before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)
.6370x as many tickets sold as Black Panther one day before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales)
.6370x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 one day before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)
.7743x as many tickets sold as Solo one day before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)
.9010x as many tickets sold as JW:FK one day before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)
1.4318x as many tickets sold as AM&tW one day before release (AM&tW had 18 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)
1.3705x as many tickets sold as Venom one day before release (Venom had 21 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)
$39M x 0.3275 = 12.77M
$25.2M x 0.6370 = $16.05M
$18.6M x 0.6370 = $11.85M
$14.1M x 0.7743 = $10.92M
$15.3M x 0.9010 = $13.78M
$11.5M x 1.4318 = $16.47M
$10M x 1.3705 = $13.7M
These seven films average to $13.65M. Currently the Tuesday sales take up 22.134% of all sales (though that number will obviously decrease). Without those sales the average would be $10.63M.
QuoteBlack Panther: 650 tickets sold that day. 56.33% of all seats sold. [4597/10526 seats left - 121 showings]
Infinity War: 738 tickets sold that day. 76.09% of all seats sold. [3625/15159 seats left - 174 showings]
Deadpool 2: 835 tickets sold that day. 36.70% of all seats sold. [10226/16155 seats left - 166 showings]
Solo: 377 tickets sold that day. 36.26% of all seats sold. [8575/13453 seats left - 142 showings]
Fallen Kingdom: 768 tickets sold that day. 30.57% of all seats sold. [9523/13715 seats left - 147 showings]
Ant-Man & the Wasp: 347 tickets sold that day. 24.21% of all seats sold. [8258/10896 seats left - 112 showings]
Venom: 498 tickets sold that day. 20.93% of all seats sold. [10414/13170 seats left - 122 showings]
492 / 650 = 0.7569 | $25.2M x 0.7569 = $19.07M (not relevant due to so many seats already taken)
492 / 738 = 0.6667 | $39M x 0.6667 = 26M (not relevant at all, same as Black Panther)
492 / 835 = 0.5892 | $18.6M x 0.5892 = $10.96M
492 / 377 = 1.3050 | $14.1M x 1.3050 = $18.4M
492 / 768 = 0.6406 | $15.3M x 0.6406 = $9.8M
492 / 347 = 1.4179 | $11.5M x 1.4179 = $16.31M
492 / 498 = 0.9879 | $10M x 0.9879 = $9.88M
The average of these (excluding Infinity War and Black Panther) is 13.07M.
The thing is, Solo have been really frontloaded for all of its presales run, while Fallen Kingdom had been really backloaded, rendering these two outliers, and not very helpful in terms of where Crimes of Grindelwald will land. In addition, Ant-Man and the Wasp has been really weak in these presales compared to its actual previews number (maybe summer walk-ups? or it was very weak in this region? I don't know), so its not helpful either. And when it comes to Infinity War and Black Panther, their numbers are might too big to be used as good reference. All of this is to say, that I think the two films that are most worth our time to look at are Deadpool 2 and Venom.
Regardless, I just wanted to do some calculations to get some perspective on how it stands right now, and y'all are free to interpret them however you'd like. For me it just looks pretty unlikely for it to fall below $10M, at least when Tuesday's previews are counted in. Currently my prediction would be $10.5M-$11M for the full previews, and $75M for the weekend.
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17 minutes ago, jedijake said:
Many people feel like, with the crowded summer of 2019, this one will be the one that takes the biggest hit.
I think it may keep it from hitting $400 million but should easily go into the $300 millions with a $120-$130 million OW.
Agree? Disagree?
Yeah, pretty much.
Currently I see it opening with $115M ($145M for the long weekend), finishing with about $330M domestically, and around $800M worldwide.
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Presuming Avengers 4 gets to open only after the early May holidays on May 10th, what does that say about the release date of Detective Pickachu? I mean there's no chance they'll these release two huge event films on the same week, or even only one week apart, right?
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I'm the one who made that post, lol.
You'd be surprised at how many people from the sub are lurking here, myself included, of course.