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VTKajin
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Posts posted by VTKajin
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Oh wow, was not expecting an increase for Aquaman. Think 6.5M weekend is definitely the right estimate for the weekend. $316M after Sunday. Should be able to make ~$20M more afterwards.
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20 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:
Yeah but didn't the Twitter guy do the same thing for the SM:FFH trailer? Deep Wang has more reliable "insider" information than this guy (waiting until theaters get word of a new trailer, I presume).
And then he got the actual date for the FFH trailer a week in advance this month. Plans change, but he's been spot-on in spite of that.
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Looks like Aquaman is heading for a ~$335M final, lost too much here and there to hit $340M+. Oh well, CW is still potentially in reach. We're definitely looking at at least $800M OS, which means it'd need a little under $20M more OS to surpass CW WW. Can't wait for Japan.
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Aquaman should be able to finish between $335-345M if it keeps playing similarly to NT2, with the exception of Tuesdays.
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OS definitely might reach $800M, with domestic looking at around $340M, which means CW total is only a Japanese overperformance away.
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Solid weekend. Can it hit $300M next Sunday?
EDIT: Nvm, I didn't realize how weak the weekday grosses will probably be. It'll probably be next weekend that it crosses 300.
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Having heard what I have about the trailer (I can't say anything, so don't ask), people are going to realize how much they're sleeping on this movie with predictions when they see the new trailer. Jan 19th hype.
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Name recognition really shouldn't be an excuse when GotG made it big on its first outing. Even Doctor Strange outperformed both Ant-Man movies. This has nothing to do with how popular the characters are.
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It's still outperforming expectations overseas, so it will definitely get very close to CW. $1.1B+ is almost guaranteed provided it keeps playing like NT2 domestically. A great-but-not-wildly-insane performance in Japan would put it in spitting distance of CW and give it a real shot and beating it.
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OS-China looks like it might be flirting with $500M, depending on Japan and where Australia will top out. Say $295M+ in China and $330M+ domestic, we're looking at a $1.125B final. It's entirely possible it finds an extra $28M somewhere, but it's easily surpassing TDKR and inching ever closer to CW.
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56 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
I'd say 3 is the maximum for one studio superhero wise otherwise you'd end up cannibalising the audience. I'd probably say February, June and November for Birds of Prey, WW1984 and The Batman/Batgirl
It's an inevitability considering DC's slate, and will be for Marvel. Marvel will definitely have 4 films in 2021 provided Sony renews their deal for more Spider-Man movies.
Also, reminder that November 2020 has FB3.
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23 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:
Would be good release schedule. I say WB gets bold and adds a possible 4th film in December.
Feb- BoP
June- WW84
August- The Batman
December- Batgirl?
That would be a solid 2020 schedule. Start and end the year with low budget films. Big budget films in the middle.
I've been thinking about this a lot. Batgirl could definitely happen, since it probably could be finished in about a year. I'm also thinking Black Adam is a possible contender, but that's dependent on how fast it gets a director and greenlit. The Rock is a proven name in December and his schedule is kind of open after Jumanji 3 is done.
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12 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:
You think Venom can take out Batman?
Nah, it's not that, just that August 2020 is virtually empty. It's a great spot for releasing a Batman movie and would capitalize on complete lack of competition.
Also, WB set DC dates for Feb 14th, April 3rd, June 5th, and July 24th in 2020. So far two of those release dates have been used, with BoP getting moved a week. The April date is 100% not happening but I can see Batman taking the July date and getting pushed to August.
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And yet Marvel's releasing CM in March and Endgame in April. Hmm.
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4 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:
With that schedule The Batman can easily be out by October/November 2020.
I doubt it'll be in production that long. It probably won't be post-heavy. Not to mention October and November aren't good months for the movie. November has FB3 and October has Venom, while not being a huge month for blockbusters in general. I'm placing my bets on August.
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1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:
What's the latest though? Last I knew he was writing the script but they haven't cast anyone and nobody knows if Affleck is in or out.
Casting starts February and filming begins in June according to the scoopersphere. Reeves just turned in his final draft of the script.
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Rian's Star Wars movie will probably be 2021. Avatar 3 is definitely moving. And I don't see WB waiting longer than 3 years for Aquaman 2.
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9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
As of now he's out of contract courtesy of the 7 year de Havilland clause I was under the impression his new agent (same as The Rock's) asked for more money and WB said no which is why he not doing the cameo in Shazam. WB has also been hesitant to green light the next Superman movie.
Yeah that's correct. Henry's asking for too much + they haven't found the right director to pitch them a Superman movie.
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Might AQ increase from last weekend then?
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Wonder where it'll top out in SK, Philippines, and Indonesia.
Meanwhile, damn Brits are the only ones not jumping on the train.
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1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:
The multiplier off of the weekend. For instance, An Unexpected Journey made 113.3M from the weekend and beyond, 3.55x its gross from the weekend.
Got it. Interesting stats.
3.6-3.7x for Aquaman is my guess. If the weekend is $54M then we could see $332-337M total.
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10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
The last time we had a Dec 28-30 weekend was 2012, when the top 10 were:
Hobbit:AUJ — 31.9M — week 3 — 3.55x wknd multi
Django — 30.1M — Xmas release — 4.3x
Les Miserables — 27.3M — Xmas release — 4x
Parental Guidance — 14.6M — Xmas — 4.3x
Jack Reacher — 13.6M — week 2 — 3.64x
This is 40 — 12.5M — week 2 — 3.49x
Lincoln — 7.3M — week 8 — 7.86x
The Guilt Trip — 6.5M — week 2 — 3.47x
Monsters Inc (3D) — 6.4M — week 2 — 3.4x
Rise of the Guardians — 4.9M — week 6 — 3.71x
and before that was 2007:
National Treasure 2 — 35.7M — week 2 — 3.69x
Alvin & Chipmunks — 29M — week 3 — 3.62x
I am Legend — 27.4M — week 3 — 3.26x
Charlie Wilson’s War — 12M — week 2 — 3.66x
Juno — 10.6M — week 4 — Xmas expansion — 12x*
AvP:requiem — 10.1M — Xmas release — 2.49x
PS I love you — 9.3M — week 2 — 4.24x
The Water Horse — 9.2M — Xmas — 3.63x
Sweeney Todd — 8.2M — week 2 — 4.17x
Enchanted — 6.4M — week 6 — 3.68x
*Juno expanded from 1000 this weekend to 2000-2500 in January
So trimming the high outliers of Juno and Lincoln and the low outliers of AvP:Requiem and I am Legend, we get a multiplier range of 3.4-4.3x
What multipliers are these?
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Hope AQ does the higher end of estimates or surpasses them. Maybe an $18M Friday.
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$50-55M seems like a safe range, but I wonder if it can go higher.
AQUAMAN | 813.4 M overseas ● 1148.5 M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
It'll hit 800M OS with a normal performance in Japan. An overperformance would take it to $810M+.