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VTKajin
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Posts posted by VTKajin
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1 hour ago, dashrendar44 said:
TLJ is a SW movie for people that think SW is more than what it actually is.
Funny, because the people who hate it think SW is more than what it actually is.
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Maoyan prediction up to $21M weekend for AQ.
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France (and SK) have Christmas season legs, no? Aquaman should at least be able to leg out to WW's $16M with a good shot at $20M.
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What kind of opening for Aquaman would result in typical MCU numbers? And does Germany normally have Christmas legs?
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Rating looks good. Should have some legs due to Christmas.
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I'm curious what the totals will be in Europe. It should leg out just fine to $25-30M in the UK, but I hope it opens big in France and Germany.
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I think the 3-day tracking should be closer to $80M if the 5-day is that high. Also, the outlier projection of $150M 5-day screams WW scenario. I wouldn't count it out. We could be looking at a $90-100M 3-day if that rings true.
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This movie isn't low priority. The script won't be ready in time for a spring shoot. It will be ready by the time FB3 is done filming, though. And Ezra is interested, he's been very vocal about it in interviews.
23 hours ago, Essem said:Isnt Barry Allen supposed to be confident, almost cocky. I feel that translates better to screen for a Flash charachter than a nervous, scared, rookie Flash
No, not at all, lol. You're thinking of Wally West. Barry Allen is nervous, a loner, awkward, and a genius. Ezra plays way closer to Barry than Wally. Grant Gustin is an awful Barry Allen, too, for that matter.
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Translates to $70-75M 3-day for Aquaman like Deadline failed to state.
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I think it's going to act like China. Lower presales but big buzz on opening leading to an overperformance + good legs.
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So it seems Aquaman could open to $90-100M+, if it follows traditional CBM multipliers but holiday presale comps are lacking. Maybe Hobbit would be a better comp, if the data exists.
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19 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:
$100M for Bumblebee would be "great"? Even with a lower budget, shouldn't a TF movie aim for bigger numbers than that in China?
TLK crashed. Who knows what the Chinese public feel about the franchise right now. $100M in China for a damaged franchise with a budget of $100M is very respectable.
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21 hours ago, grim22 said:
Did they just paste the Poppins number for Aquaman? A 57-62M start won't lead to 115M. A 68-75M start however can.
It's definitely a mistake. Their previous breakdown was $65M 3-day and $100M 5-day. If the breakdown remains exactly the same, that would mean Aquaman is tracking for a $75M OW right now, which makes a lot more sense, and sounds great. It'll still go up, but that's where I would expect it to be at this point.
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Aquaman - $85M
MPR - $45M (3-day)
Bumblebee - $25M
Spidey - $18M
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37 minutes ago, Asyulus said:
$400m OS-C possible?
More than possible. If other major markets play similarly, it should surpass $400M OS without difficulty.
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I genuinely had a feeling for months that this would play out almost exactly like Lego Batman. Popular character, niche animation style. It's a shame because it (both of them even) probably deserved better. It's going to take a lot to pierce the international audience with animated CBMs like these.
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It's been acting like I2, so I think that's the fairest comp right now, unless it totally surprises and skyrockets to $50M.
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$40M weekend remains my guess with these numbers. Doubt it can go as high as $45M.
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Could Aquaman have good legs in Russia?
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38 minutes ago, nature league - matrix said:
so out of a 200M weekend when Aquaman opens...
33% - Aquaman - 66 million
20% - Poppins - 40 million
15% - Bumblebee - 30 million
10% - Spidey - 20 million
6% - Second Act - 12 million
4% - The Mule - 8 million
3% - Marwen - 6 million
3% - Mortal Engines - 6 million
2% - Ralph - 4 million
2% - Grinch - 4 million
98% - 196 million
Isn't $200M a little low? Last year's two major weekends combined were $460M. This Dec 14th weekend will be a bit subdued, so next week should definitely add up to more than $200M.
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Spider-Verse is not flopping. The budget is a mere $90M. It'll absolutely profit.
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4 hours ago, Jonwo said:
Aquaman seems to be selling quite well, more than Spider-Verse which is surprising. Spider-Verse will likely be number 1 due to previews but Aquaman should put up a strong fight
Any predictions on OW or final grosses?
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RT tweeted that it's at 77% with 53 reviews, but I don't see it. Average score down to 7.5 (MC at 71), though. Bumblebee is about to be "officially" better than MPR. A shocking twist.
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It'll do well, of course. But it's looking more like Lego Batman numbers than Lego Movie numbers.
Wednesday Numbers: Poppins 4.8M l Everything's dead. Screw everything.
in Numbers and Data
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Just saw Aquaman. Yeah, this is the movie to see this month, especially after FB2 WoM was poor and it's been 2 months since Venom. Totally cheesy in some parts but not the kind of cheesy people will hate. I expect WoM to spread fast indeed, what with MPR disappointing. Friday jump might be big.