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VTKajin
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Posts posted by VTKajin
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Shazam shouldn't have a problem making $700M as long as it opens big in NA. The new trailer is coming soon, so hopefully hype can skyrocket.
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If Aquaman's 2nd week drop is only 20% then $330-340M finish is likely.
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1 minute ago, Heat Vision said:
Media and bloggers keep saying Reeves don't want Affleck so who knows.
This might be an upopular opinion but DC can have 10 straight hits at the box office and they will never take it to the next level until they course correct Batman and Superman. Those two are the pillars of DC. I'm glad Aquaman and Wonder Woman are succesful but DC needs their big boys.
Batman and Superman are overexposed. Superman hasn't been a huge hit in ages.
Also, Reeves doesn't want Affleck but that doesn't apply to other DCEU movies like BoP, Batgirl, SS2, etc.
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2 minutes ago, DeeCee said:
“Is this DC or Marvel?”
”Probably DC.”
Discussion amongst some kids behind me. After the movie ended.
Did they miss the giant DC logo opening? lol
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I think it's safe to say at least a 4.5x multi for Aquaman. Just want to note that the Christmas Eve drop and Christmas increase for AQ are both better than National Treasure 2, so 5x is still in play.
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8 hours ago, NamakFiskKa said:
my main question is to all the folks who are keeping tabs of Aquaman' run in the various OS markets.
Does it still has enough gas left to chase for 400 OS-China (its already halfway on christmas) ?
Seeing any early signs of breakout in AUS ?
Probably will be $400-440M. Don't see it going lower with its current performance.
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How did they come up with those numbers? Trajectory?
Either way, funny that Desolation of Smaug opened a week earlier back when it released than Aquaman but Aquaman will have almost caught up with it at the end of this weekend. $260M dom is the floor for Aquaman, then. $300M is very much in the cards.
Gonna try my hand at this, using The Hobbit as a comp:Weekend 1 - $73M incl. all previewsWeekend 2 - $52M+ (could totally drop even less), ~$180M totalWeekend 3 - $28M+, $245MWeekend 4 - $15M, $270MWeekend 5 - $10M, $285MWeekend 6 - $5.5M, $296MWeekend 7 - $3M, $300MJust realized National Treasure 2 is a waaaay better comp since it opened on the same weekend.
Weekend 1 - $73M
Weekend 2 - $52M+, ~$190M total
Weekend 3 - $28M, $255M
Weekend 4 - $15M, $280M
Weekend 5 - $10M, $295M
Weekend 6 - $6.5M, $305M
Weekend 7 - $4M, $310M
Rest of the weeks would add up to maybe $15M. If weekend 2 is more like $54-55M, then the total would be around $340-345M.
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If Aquaman's weekend drops less than 10% than I'd say we're definitely looking at a 4-5x multiplier, which puts $300M back on the table for sure.
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5 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
It hasn't been playing longer than a week in most of those markets, so I think it's too early to judge how it's holding there, and 150+ from rest of the world, as you put it, seems very generous. With increased competition (if nothing else, it will hurt its screen space), seeing how it plays out this week is crucial. As I said, I would absolutely love it to do 900+, but I'm not yet convinced. Fingers crossed, though.
If you look at typical legs for the season in markets that have holiday legs and how good WoM is in Asia, they're solid projections and likely to be close to the final totals. I'll gladly update the numbers as time goes on, but I'm confident in its performance.
As for ROW, Venom made $256M in the markets I listed sans China and then received another $116M ROW. A bit higher on both counts for AQ isn't unlikely. Will likely be close to BvS, which made $305M in those markets sans China and then $140M ROW.
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4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
I actually think your OS-C numbers might be generous. That's where I have my main doubts. And that's why I want to wait and see how it plays for this coming week there. I can see it closer to the lower end of 600 rather than your top one for total international, which with your 240 dom would put it around the 850 mark, rather than 900+.
Let's see - I would love this to go past 900, if only because I don't want BVS to continue being the DCEU top grosser, but I would not be TOO confindet in that just yet.
Just look at how it's holding in the top 15 non-China markets. I broke it down on the last page. It's a foregone conclusion that it'll make at least $400M OS-C (possibly up to $440M).
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8 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:
Joker really isn't a good enough reason to delay Wonder Woman 84 in my opinion. Warner Bros won't be starving for blockbusters in 2019 though. They have Shazam, IT Chapter 2, King of Monsters, Detective Pikachu, etc.
It was more that they had nothing that could fill Flash's release slot and they'd rather have 3+ movies in 2020 than 2.
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4 minutes ago, JB33 said:
You think it's wise for the Wonder Woman sequel and the new Batman movie to share a summer?
Not to mention, I want some serious time taken on the new Batman movie. We haven't heard anything about it and it's going to be 2019 in a matter of days. Feels a bit soon to already have a completed Batman film for summer 2020.
Just because we haven't "heard" anything about it (even though we actually have, Reeves said back in August that his first draft of the script would be turned in during September, which it was, and that filming would start around May or June, which it most likely will) doesn't mean things aren't moving along.
And it's not any more unwise to have WW in June and Batman in say, August, than it is to have BP in February and IW in April or CM in March and Endgame in April.
3 minutes ago, TMP said:They started shooting this film in June 2018. It's gonna be out in June 2020. No way will it not be ready for the originally planned November date, which is an even better date now since Sonic/Terminator/Charlie's Angels all sound like non-starters & Bond's not out until February
It will be finished by November. It was just delayed to retake the June release date WW had because Joker is in October and The Flash couldn't make June 2020,
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4 minutes ago, JB33 said:
Me too. Summer 2020 belongs to this movie, WONDER WOMAN 1984. Give THE BATMAN the third weekend in July 2021, the slot that worked so well for THE DARK KNIGHT and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. There's nothing there right now.
Why wait a whole year? They have plans for 2021, not limited to The Flash, Batgirl, and Supergirl.
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19 hours ago, Jonwo said:
I wouldn't be surprised if FB3 is delayed until 2021 so they can make changes. I think The Batman probably will be Summer 2021 but October or November 2020 could work
Batman is definitely summer 2020 unless something happens between now and June, when filming begins according to scoopers/insiders.
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$30M as high as it can go with these rates?
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Dom is indeed early to call. This weekend is interesting because rarely does a blockbuster open on Christmas weekend. Legs could be 4x+.
Also, depending on Australia's and Japan's performances, Aquaman OS sans China can match BvS. Brazil's exchange rates are iffy and I'm not sure about Taiwan's and Philippine's legs, but I think we're definitely looking at $700M combined OS.
Projected totals:
China - $280M (extension is likely)
UK - $25M (it'll be tough but I think it can do it)
Brazil - $30M+
Mexio - $22-25M
France - ~$25M
Germany - ~$20M
Russia - $18M+ (could be higher depending)
South Korea - $30M+
India - $10M
Indonesia - $15M
Taiwan - $10-15M
Philippines - $10-15M
Remaining markets without any solid numbers or have yet to open:
Spain - $10M
Italy - $10M
Japan - $15-20M
Australia - $30M+
Hong Kong - $10M
That would be ~$570-590M from these top markets, with ROW bringing in maybe $130-150M+ more.
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Deadline being admittedly conservative bodes well.
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Those first week totals are fantastic.
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49 minutes ago, boxofficenerd said:
My local actually is decent in size so it can get some decent screens in for everyone
Poppins has 16 (20 including IMAX)
Aquaman has 7/8
Spider-Verse has 3/4
Mortal Engines has 1 (Looks like it wont be in cinemas chrsitmas eve anymore)
Ralph 2 has 5/6
Fantastic Beasts has 3/4
Bumblebee has 4/5
Grinch has 6
I do feel they're going stupidly high with Poppins and actually taking away the IMAX screens from Aquaman.
Any chance cinemas regret this soon and give screens to AQ?
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Thought experiment, had the Saturday and Wednesday previews not been offered, would that audience have shown up to Thursday previews? Additionally, what was the level of double-dipping, I wonder? EDIT: And if early previews weren't offered, would there have been as much interest in Thursday previews? 🤨
I suspect that the more accurate preview number to use for projections is closer to $13.7M than it is to $9M, but I have nothing to back that up.
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3 hours ago, efialtes76 said:
That's impossible at 1000%.
Nothing's impossible, but it's unlikely.
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1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:
Taking it with a grain of salt.
After what happened to MPR last night....
Article explains the audience was skewed older. Aquaman won't have this issue.
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WoM will cause it to overperform both on previews and overall weekend. $85M+ incoming!!
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EXCLUSIVE, Thursday 7:48PM: At this point in time, we’re hearing that Warner Bros./DC’s Aquaman is hooking a Thursday night between $8M-$10M. Meanwhile, Paramount’s Bumblebee is driving to an evening total between $2M-$2.5M. Both pics started showtimes at 5PM looking to capitalize on 15% K-12 schools off today, in addition to 78% colleges on break per ComScore.
Confident it'll overperform tbh.
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Shazam! | April 5, 2019 | 21st Most Profitable Film of 2019
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
The focus is on Big Barda and Mister Miracle vs the Female Furies. Scale doesn't have to be insane.