Molek
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Posts posted by Molek
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1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:
Someone tell me why this number triggers my OCD so much. For some reason its seems so unsatisfying to look at.
No even numbers.
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4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
So new record for animation?
I think it is pure animation since no physical acting was involved. Its just very realistic animation. Objects and the Cat in Toy Story 4 was very realistic. In fact Toys are realistic 😛
There was one live action scene hidden in there
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1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
So 191M OW DOM for Lion King. Not bad. Not bad at all!
Thanks, Charlie.
Isn't that 192.6?
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2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
TLK is passing BatB. July/August drops will be softer than March/April ones.
Nah the audience really hates it remember!
Even the "All Audience" is currently 5% higher (85%) than BatB (80%) and that's with more backlash. Verified is steady at 89% with 18k+ ratings.
Legs are going to be great. Not expecting anywhere near Aladdin's 4x but anything over 3x should be good.
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5 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Box Office Pro isn't actual tracking.
I know, I'm talking about tracking initial expectations for what this could or should make, not "actual" tracking. Disney was clearly targeting 200 themselves with this wide release so their 150 expectation (or even below BatB) was always BS. Anyway 185-190 is a fuzzy line and I'd say it's still on par as a performance, just at the lower end of what people expected.
Still an #event no matter what, and beating out Incredibles 2 is fantastic.
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1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:
I find it wild that this is being considered an under performance lol. Tracking was near this like 2 weeks ago.
I would call 190-210 "on par" for The Lion King, but 175-189 would be a slight underperformance and under BatB would've been a definite underperformance. I don't care if tracking said 150-170, Boxoffice tracking originally had it right at 200 with 180-230 range.
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10 minutes ago, filmlover said:
The 8th biggest opening of all time. Where all the "what a flop" folks at?
2nd for non CBM/SW film
I can see 600+ in the horizon with 1.5-1.7 total with appropriate legs, can end up #7 or #6 of all time
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I'll go with the middle of Asgard est and -19% Sun drop
78.5
62
50
190.5
2.8x = 533
2.9x = 552
3.0x = 572
3.1x = 591
3.2x = 610
3.3x = 629
3.4x = 648
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2 minutes ago, Rthroar said:
62-64
Roar Simba roar to the 200!
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12 minutes ago, a2k said:
about 10m more than I2?
Disney
BOT
BOT with 200.0 opening vs BOT with 199.9 opening
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I'm guessing Incredibles 2 wasn't an event despite opening to 180+ million as well
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5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
TLK is unlikely to hit the top 6 of 2018/2019 releases alone. An event? More like...
not an event
It's going to sell nearly 20 million tickets in a single weekend, of course it's an event, especially for families. I'm guessing you didn't think BatB was an event either? Because this is on the same level. Not everything needs to have mega fanboy hype to be an event, it's still doing well.
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1 minute ago, filmlover said:
BTW I just checked the theater I'm seeing Lion King at later today and everything is filling up throughout the day fast. Wouldn't be surprised if it managed a nice increase from true Friday.
It's better to think that it will do the worst so we can have a nice surprise
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1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:
I2 and Dory both faced serious and direct competition in their early weeks. The Lion King won't have such problems, and July weekdays are stronger than June ones too.
BATB did 2.87x opening in March. I'd say 3x is locked for TLK, 3.3-3.5x is perfectly reasonable and 3.7x is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities. This meas a domestic range of $600-700M
The spoiler-free (ish) nature of it could be deflating the OW which will in turn result in a higher multi, so I kind of agree. GA doesn't feel the need to rush out, and the 23M previews were inflated a bit by fandom rush. That's my guess anyway.
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8.0 internal multi at best? Seems pretty rough in all honesty. Looks like CoolEric was right with 8.5 being the high-end.
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Based on AUS/NZ numbers I was expecting this to be well into the 200s domestically. It does kind of look like OS is performing stronger than domestic right now?
I mean BatB is getting crushed OS yet this will only be a bit above it domestically, and it performed somewhat similarly in those markets.
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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Second, when I said I was expecting low to mid 500s for a while now, that's because I baked in an uncertain feeling about this film into my projections. I've said in multiple threads that there was something I couldn't quite place that was bothering me about this film (and, no it wasn't about emotions). I think I've finally twigged what it is, but that isn't germane to this post (still not about emotions, FWIW).
Ok, now I'm interested
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Some conflicting info.. underperforming OW but better than expected CS (was expecting A- with previous data).
Seems like 500 is practically locked, 600 is somewhat possible. Basically a little better than BatB...
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It's performing literally in the middle of early tracking (from months ago) currently, neither underperforming or overperforming lol. So no one can brag or throw shade here
Edit: k nevermind
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2 minutes ago, Mekanos said:
So here's a fun game:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/
What's the biggest opening of a movie you didn't see? For me it's DH2.
If Endgame could tap into my market and other ones it would've had a 500+ OW and 1.5B total
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Somehow, Aladdin lost 1 more point on RT, down to 56%... 👀
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Just now, Porthos said:
Indeed. A just over or just under 200m OW would be terrific. Hence my sarcastic use of the “Not An Event” meme.
Hell, 185 would be fantastic as well. A sure fire smash hit in fact. To treat it any other way is just silly.
Problem is when expectations get over-inflated. If we thought 70m OD, people would've screamed underperformance, but 80 would suddenly look great. But with 90 OD, 80 looks just "ok" in comparison.
Anyway, BOP tracking might come true with $201,000,000 months ago, interestingly enough. I think Disney will use their power to get it over the line
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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:
For those wondering about 1st day comscores from recent "family" movies...
Spidey - Screen Engine/ComScore PostTrak exits are fantastic with 4 1/2 stars last night for general audiences (who made up 68% of the crowd), 5 stars for parents and 4 1/2 stars for kids under 12 (combined 32% of the crowd).
Toys 4 - Let’s allow the weekend to play out, because there’s a lot of love here for the movie with PostTrak exits exploding at 5 stars for both general audiences and parents, and under 12 kids at 4 1/2.
SLOP 2 - Rotten Tomatoes doesn’t always completely capsize a family pic, and audience exit scores on PostTrak last night were excellent, with five stars from parents and kids under 12, and 4 1/2 stars from general audiences.
Aladdin - So far, so good: ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrack exits show general audiences giving Aladdin 4 1/2 stars and a solid 69% definite recommend. Parents gave the pic four stars after turning out at 12%, and kids under 12, who repped 20% of the crowd and loved it at 4 1/2 stars.
All these movies have had very nice legs so far this summer...and all of them had kids under 12 at 4.5 stars or above after the 1st night...
A- CinemaScore instead of A might happen then?
I'm guessing it's quite scary for children due to the photorealism.
Monday (7/22) Numbers
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Haven't all Mondays been quite bad this summer with Tuesdays seeing huge jumps?