Molek
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Posts posted by Molek
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1 minute ago, sfran43 said:
So Charlie overestimating by 10M+? 😵 @Charlie Jatinder are you sure of 90?
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-15% Sat and -20% Sun
$75m OD = $190m OW
$80m OD = $202m OW
$85m OD = $215m OW
$90m OD = $228m OW
$95m OD = $240m OW
$100m OD = $253m OW
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10 minutes ago, a2k said:
24
48 (72 od, 3x previews)
62.5 (+30%)
50 (-20%)
= 184.5 ow (7.69x previews)
48 is not happening, because Captain Marvel presale Friday comp is 54 and there's no way it's as frontloaded
It will follow Fallen Kingdom ratio with a 65 pure Friday roughly imo, 9.5-9.9 IM
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22-25 previews seems really optimistic compared to tracking we did here
Well, I guess it just means it's performing more like Fallen Kingdom, than Toy Story 4, with Porthos' comps at least
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6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
my Spidey Sense is telling me to peg previews at $21.5 million.
I placed them at 21.7 as well in the weekend thread for my final prediction, let's hope we're right
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Sacto comps:
Fallen Kingdom and Godzilla are 24-25
TS4 and Aladdin are 20-21
Pikachu is 19.7
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2 minutes ago, Mekanos said:
It's not beating Black Panther domestically as the highest grossing movie with a black cast roleplaying as cats in Africa.
It will tie with it because they are both Hamlet movies with black casts 🦋
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Lock in my final prediction
21.7 previews
212 OW
700.1 DOM
1.80 WW
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11 minutes ago, daraghf.1415 said:
My prediction:
24M previews
68M True Friday
67M Saturday
58.3M Sunday
217.3M Weekend ($45,989 PTA in 4725 Theaters)
11 minutes ago, daraghf.1415 said:217.3M x 2.65 = 575.8M Domestic
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6 minutes ago, MattW said:
Wow, that's amazing. Disney very clearly on a new strategy compared to when they released Force Awakens. I remember a lot of people being surprised at the theater count (me included) and speculating it was because they were negotiating for a higher percentage which turned a lot of theaters off.
My sense right now browsing through the thread is high teens, 17-19m in previews, and an IM up to the level of Incredibles 2, 9.8 or so which would put the OW in the 170-190 range.
Whaaa? The consensus as of now is low 20s
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31 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
3. NO CRITIC CONSPIRACY THEORIES. Over the past week, we’ve been bombarded with conspiracies from posters here that the evil, moustache-twirling critics are deliberately trying to take down the poor, innocent megacorp Disney by giving The Lion King mixed reviews.
Yeah, no. We're not gonna have this stuff here. I don't care what evidence you have. These types of posts are going to derail the thread and are basically trolling. We'll allow maybe one or two posts about a potential discrepancy between audiences or critics. But if you start repeating yourself, or said posts are inflammatory, or you start promoting the idea that there's some sort of evil conspiracy going around...you will be banned. No exceptions. Again, not naming names, but you know who you are. Don't be a dick.
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WB marketing 10/10 once again
Will probably watch this one in theatres this time
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Just now, UserHN said:
How did it do relative to other Disney live-action remakes?
Aladdin (Thursday opening, not Wednesday) was 850k
BatB (Thursday) $2.05m
So it's huge
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2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:
I know it’s anecdotal at best, but TLK just posted the 3rd biggest OD ever in New Zealand. Given how well NZ and Australia are as a mirror for the domestic market, this bodes very well.
In Australia it opened yesterday but I haven't seen any news for that for some reason.
Edit: $4.23m Wednesday for TLK in Australia
Comps (Thursday only, looking only at a chart scale)
Aladdin - $850-900k (https://numero.co/reports/2019/05/27/aladdin-is-one-jump-ahead-of-the-box-office)
Pikachu - $790k (https://numero.co/reports/2019/05/13/in-avengers-we-trust)
BatB - $2.05m (https://numero.co/reports/2017/03/27/beauty-is-best)
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7 minutes ago, jedijake said:
So are we suddenly looking at a preview number at or under $20 million? After showing patterns that would equate to $22-$24 million, has this week suddenly dropped that much?
People are just skeptical if it can keep up the pace to reach 22+ by Thur I think, it's still comping out to 22+ currently.
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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
It should double this week. Would give us a final total PS of around $50m for all theaters.
What OW does that translate to?
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10 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
For me, the issue over TLK's IM comes down to its preview size. If it really does hit 20M+, that is a large amount of demand already taken care of. Sure, it won't play out like a Marvel, SW, or HP joint, but it's still a lot of money being made and a large chunk of its target audience satisfied. Especially since we're in the peak summer season, there's going to be more kids flocking to see it on Thursday, and while there will still be a big chunk of kids during the weekend, it's not going to be as large as, say, Beauty and the Beast which opened in the spring.
And yeah, Incredibles 2 managed to do 9.875x off its preview in the middle of summer with an 18.5M preview haul, but that also had Father's Day to inflate its IM, which Lion King won't have.
I dunno, I think 8-10x is the range we're going for, with the lower and higher end all dependent on early audience reception.
What about FK which had meh to poor audience reception? Still got nearly 9.7. I know that had lower $7-9m lower previews than this is targeting, but I'm not sure I understand the argument that 20+ has satisfied a lot of demand, when it could just point to larger upcoming demand with the same ratio. JW had larger previews than FK and a way higher multi.
To put it simply, it would be surprising to me that such a family friendly non-sequel movie like TLK would fail to hit 9.0 multi with decent audience reception, and 10.0+ can't be ruled out. I'll stick to 9.5-9.9 but we'll see how it plays out, because we haven't seen a family movie this big before, as its previews are much higher than JW which holds the current crown.
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24 minutes ago, Taruseth said:
Isn't that overall kinda good like it's above every other movie (I know that Eg and IW had totally different pattern)
Also you are here debating if it will end as the 5th biggest OWend (behind Endgame, IW, TFA and TLJ) or the 10th biggest (180m between Civil War and I2) which even adjusted for Inflations would be 6th to 16th.
While in Germany I have doubt it will get into the top 100 for OWends (need 965k adms. for that or the top 50 in € would need €10m)
Will Europe's performance be meh then? I was expecting it to be nearly equally huge domestically and in Europe, Japan, Australia, bit less than 40% DOM split
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6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:
No, because this isn't your normal family movie but a big blockbuster so IM won't be anything Aladdin like (12x on a normal Wend with M-Day it was a 13x) but rather something closer to other blockbuster and its opening in summer so its IM most likely will be worse than B&tB (10.72x).
Jurassic World managed over 11 in summer with huge $18.5m previews but that was 2015. I think it will be around 9.5-9.9 personally like Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom, which suggest $215-$240 opening
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So all the comps are still $22.0-24.5m previews.
Jurassic World ($18.5m) = $248-$277 OW
Incredibles 2 ($18.5m) = $217-$242 OW
Beauty and the Beast ($16.3m) = $236-$263 OW
Fallen Kingdom ($15.3m) = $213-$238 OW
These are the largest previews grossing family movies, with 3/4 of them releasing in summer. Lion King is way ahead of all of them. So what I'm wondering is why are people here predicting such a pessimistic IM of 9.0 or under here? Just because summer has been disappointing so far o.O?
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29 minutes ago, narniadis said:
That is not info that helps the anti Illumination crowd 😂😂 but yes, I tried saying that back when it was out and its still true. SLOP 2 though is a headscratcher IMO. Not sure why either the first one over performed so hugely or this one was not firing.
First one had a super marketable hook that no one cared for afterwards imo. I remember watching all the vids for the first one cause the concept itself seemed really interesting but never saw a single trailer for the second one
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5 minutes ago, Hilderic said:
Some data that may be of interest to determine Aladdin's final gross:
In its sixth weekend, Aladdin grossed $10,114,122. These are all the films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $9.5M and $10.5M in their sixth weekend, and how much they added from that point onwards:
Shrek ($10,405,731): $52,432,994
Spider-Man ($10,311,062): $33,278,192
Shrek 2 ($10,216,452): $44,443,712
The Hangover ($9,933,238): $54,877,597
Wonder Woman ($9,822,105): $44,090,112On the basis of the above, the worst-case scenario is $339,910,260 (if Aladdin follows Spider-Man) and the best-case scenario is $361,509,665 (if it follows The Hangover). If The Hangover is to be excluded because of the different genre and audience, then the best-case scenario is $359,065,062 (if Aladdin follows Shrek).
In its seventh weekend, Aladdin grossed $7,515,649. These are all the films released in May or June (since 2001) that grossed between $7M and $8M in their seventh weekend, and how much they added from that point onwards:
Shrek ($7,707,203): $39,522,882
Spider-Man ($7,515,984): $21,168,706
Incredibles 2 ($7,257,113): $35,700,983
Jurassic World ($7,181,175): $28,186,675On the basis of the above, the worst-case scenario is $341,873,971 (again, if Aladdin follows Spider-Man) and the best-case scenario is $360,228,147 (again, if it follows Shrek).
TLK should boost it a decent amount I think, 360+
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6 minutes ago, Porthos said:
The problem here, as I mentioned earlier today, is that TLK got its social media boost earlier than some films so expecting it to keep accelerating over other films which hadn't even had their social media boost, never mind review boost probably was asking a bit much. My point probably got lost a little in the shuffle earlier today, but I do stand by it.
Like I said, if TLK had gotten Black Panther level reviews, then sure, all bets are off. But Black Panther level reviews are hella rare. Expecting them and factoring them into your projections...
But, well, nothing I saw said 30m at that moment. I would have needed to seen sustained and continued growth throughout the weekend before I entertained that idea.
Let's just say (like some others) I was stanning it to crazy levels while you were keeping it purely objective. That's why you are so valuable in this thread
As always I look forward to every update you make as it gets closer to the release.
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As always I look forward to every update you make as it gets closer to the release.
THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!
in Numbers and Data
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No just wondering if he made a small accidental mistake somewhere in case, since the other sources are pointing to 80
If Charlie's source overestimates by 8.7% (25 previews vs 23 previews), then OD will be $85 from his $93 estimate