Molek

Haven't all Mondays been quite bad this summer with Tuesdays seeing huge jumps?

No even numbers.

There was one live action scene hidden in there

Isn't that 192.6?

Nah the audience really hates it remember! Even the "All Audience" is currently 5% higher (85%) than BatB (80%) and that's with more backlash. Verified is steady at 89% with 18k+ ratings. Legs are going to be great. Not expecting anywhere near Aladdin's 4x but anything over 3x should be good.

I know, I'm talking about tracking initial expectations for what this could or should make, not "actual" tracking. Disney was clearly targeting 200 themselves with this wide release so their 150 expectation (or even below BatB) was always BS. Anyway 185-190 is a fuzzy line and I'd say it's still on par as a performance, just at the lower end of what people expected. Still an #event no matter what, and beating out Incredibles 2 is fantastic.

I would call 190-210 "on par" for The Lion King, but 175-189 would be a slight underperformance and under BatB would've been a definite underperformance. I don't care if tracking said 150-170, Boxoffice tracking originally had it right at 200 with 180-230 range.

2nd for non CBM/SW film I can see 600+ in the horizon with 1.5-1.7 total with appropriate legs, can end up #7 or #6 of all time

I'll go with the middle of Asgard est and -19% Sun drop 78.5 62 50 190.5 2.8x = 533 2.9x = 552 3.0x = 572 3.1x = 591 3.2x = 610 3.3x = 629 3.4x = 648

Roar Simba roar to the 200!

BOT with 200.0 opening vs BOT with 199.9 opening

I'm guessing Incredibles 2 wasn't an event despite opening to 180+ million as well

It's going to sell nearly 20 million tickets in a single weekend, of course it's an event, especially for families. I'm guessing you didn't think BatB was an event either? Because this is on the same level. Not everything needs to have mega fanboy hype to be an event, it's still doing well.

It's better to think that it will do the worst so we can have a nice surprise

The spoiler-free (ish) nature of it could be deflating the OW which will in turn result in a higher multi, so I kind of agree. GA doesn't feel the need to rush out, and the 23M previews were inflated a bit by fandom rush. That's my guess anyway.