krla
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Posts posted by krla
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For the issue about deadlines, you could keep the deadline as is, but maybe have extra points for people who locked in early. Could be something similar to how scoring works for the derby. If 6 people are in the 'early' group, then you'd go 6 points to first, 5 points to second. Though that's a lot of points, so you could halve them. Then it goes 3 points, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0. And you wouldn't want early birds to be guaranteed these points, so you'd only award them based on their position in that weeks derby. So if first place isn't an early bird, the 3 points don't get awarded. If second is an early one, they'd get an extra 2.
Or could just do a modifier based on how early someone locks in. Start with a 2x multiplier if you lock in the second predictions open, and end at a 1x multiplier at deadline. The multiplier would decrease by roughly 0.02 every hour. Could even remove the deadline for those who come late, and accelerate the decrease to 0.1/hour after Thursday morning.
Maybe that's unnecessarily complicated (and exploitable), so you could just slap a gold star next to people who enter early predictions and perform above average. Or a brown star on the last person to lock in their predictions, lol. After all, it's a game about predicting the box office, not about who is most accurate the earliest. So disregard everything I've said! lol
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When do theater counts usually come out? I think I've typically noticed them on Thursday afternoon.
Maybe a nice 'feature' would be the option of predicting based on PTA?
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$65,432,109.87
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On 12/19/2022 at 7:37 PM, Deep Wang said:
Okay, last weekend was fun, but we’ve all been secretly waiting for the second weekend the most right??
Let’s see who can get the closest!
No prize for this one, One month Premium and bragging rights!However, as a consolation, I will still personally like the post with the winning guess!!This club will lock in 24 hours so get to it!
On 12/20/2022 at 6:52 AM, Deep Wang said:I think I'm going with somewhere around $63,592,447 which is -52.5%
How are you going to like your own post?
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ONE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS
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55 minutes ago, Cap said:
I wake up at like 4AM with a hacking cough. Hang out sick in bed for a good half an hour cause Judy is sleeping, and I know if I’m gonna take the meds, make myself to
tea, or do anything she’ll wake up. And then we’ll have to go outside. And I don’t want her to wake up and I don’t want her to go outside.
Spend 10 to 15 minutes late night doom scrolling trying to figure out why I have a cough. Because the meds I’m taking are not helping.
I have a panic attack over the idea that maybe, what if, am I allergic to the dog? I text my friend on the West Coast in a panic. She reminds me that over 1 million people currently have the flu/Covid/RVS, and it’s winter, so why are you blaming the Cute beautiful puppy? It’s not her fault.
I concede that fact, admit that it was just the crazy lunacy what happens when your brain doesn’t get enough oxygen because you’re coughing so hard.
I concede that I need to get out of bed, take some more medicine, and make myself some tea. Judy wakes up. We go outside.
While I’m breathing in the night air, enjoying the cold temperatures, the true Epiphany hits me. We go back inside, and I text my friend.
You’re right. The dog is innocent. This is clearly my body telling me it doesn’t wanna go see Avatar today.
I had a rough cold/flu a few weeks back. Cough was killing me. Green NyQuil was my saviour. I also find that if I lay in bed trying to recover, my cold/flus drag on longer. But that was impossible with my last cold, because I'd cough up a lung just getting out of bed. I also had a fever dream (though I had no fever, but it sure felt like I did) that Avatar 2 would only do like 488m. I ran out of red NyQuil and started using the green. Green is like drinking mouthwash, but it kicked in almost immediately, and allowed me to drag myself out of bed and power through the thing.
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6 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:
Why? I wasn't active then. EC seemed to post numbers pretty often and I looked forward to. What happened? if it isn't too much trouble
IIRC, it started when he said 500m for TGM was 'locked', which turned into an argument over what 'locked' means, and descended into EC being an asshole and having a meltdown. But I could be wrong, I don't follow much drama and haven't been here long. I'd thought he was only banned until the Avatar 2 OW. But I remember him melting down on Twitter afterwards.
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:
Saaaaaay, how's EC doing right about now.
(this was before the 30m explosion, ftr)
Wasn't his ban supposed to be over by now?
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On 12/24/2022 at 6:20 PM, M37 said:
Doing this via simple sorts, so may be off a bit w/ placement as re-releases have boosted grosses
Yes
Probably not what you mean, but Phantom Menace & Return of the Jedi
... and then Revenge of the Sith (10th) and TFA
FOTR 8th --> TTT 9th --> ROTK --> 8th
Finding Nemo was 8th, bested by Finding Dory
AOU 9th --> IW 4th --> Endgame 2nd
Not Quite
Toy Story finished 15th, TS2 beat it, landing in 17th place
... then TS3 beat them both and finally cracked T10 (barely)
Shrek finished 16th, Shrek 2 exploded into 4th place, then S3 finished 18th
Hunger Games was 13th, Catching Fire beat it (10th)
Didn't Finish Ahead
Spider-Man was in 6th, SM2 ended up in 11th
TDK finished in 2nd, DKR finished at 7th (major * there)
Avengers was 3rd, Ultron finished 9th
Was RO a sequel to TFA? (finished 7th)
Did I miss any?
Top Gun was in like 12th place back in its day, wasn't it?
12 hours ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:I'm not sure The Fabelmans reported numbers make any sense. It increased a normal/expected amount on Friday and Sunday, but somehow it not only didn't drop 25-30% on Saturday it went up 23%?
Obama tweeted his list of fav 2022 films on the 23rd. He listed the fablemans, which I believe is the only one on his list still in theaters. With such a low gross, it would only take a couple thousand people to swing that number. So the question becomes, is a tweet from Obama enough to get a couple thousand people to hit theaters the next day? And will this translate to more over the next week?
12 hours ago, upriser7 said:I wonder why they are projecting only 21% growth for A2 on Monday whereas Puss In Boots, BP2, Babylon etc are projected growth of 30-40% on Monday. Even Fabelmans is being projected to have almost 70% growth on Monday. Then you have Violent Night where they are actually projecting a decrease of 30% on Monday which I find bit surprising.
Violent Night is available on demand now. My TV wants 25 Canadian loons to rent it, lol.
7 hours ago, John Marston said:I haven't seen any ads for it. The beauty of ad blocker, as well as being completely blind to commercials when watching TV.
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12 hours ago, Deep Wang said:
Alright, estimates are in. Let's take a look at where everyone stands!
european1992 $110,000,000 krla $100,000,000 SLAM! $90,000,000 JimiQ $87,000,000 Sheldon Cr $82,000,000 Ronin46 $81,200,000 stuart360 $80,460,136 titanic2187 $77,025,481 IronJimbo $75,464,262 stripe $72,051,693 Grebacio $71,015,898 jedijake $71,000,000 FilmFincher $70,037,011 Mulder $70,000,000 Cheddar Please $67,000,000 JohnnyGossamer $67,000,000 lab276 $65,000,000 Ryan Reynolds $65,000,000 Deep Wang $63,592,447 JustLurking $61,326,485 charlie Jatinder $60,000,000 ZeeSoh $60,000,000 Lion Roar $58,888,888 Noctis $58,361,273 MattW $58,250,250 mikeymichael $57,876,123 XXR $57,777,775 cooldude97 $57,663,097 SchumacherFTW $57,466,420 IdahoJacket $57,327,847 Reddroast $57,000,000 Nero $56,000,000 DC Rich $55,554,032 Verrows $54,826,933 Kevin Burke $53,823,740 M37 $53,730,037 Korra Legion $53,000,000 TalismanRing $53,000,000 scachi86 $51,000,000 CJohn $50,000,000 marveldcfox $50,000,000 Brainbug $49,969,991 grey ghost $49,000,000 Menor Reborn $48,640,000 AJG 48-52 TwoMisfits $47,999,999 ZattMurdock $46,000,000 Cap $42,000,000 Eric in Boots $1 Cap and SLAM! (and the few guesses between them) are all fake accounts created to steal the win from me. I'll be showing proof of this tomorrow, at a press conference in front of the Four Seasons (Total Landscaping). SAD!
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8 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:
Interesting that Wakanda and Violent Night both had miniscule drops and are both higher than Monday.
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2 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:
There was a major snow storm on Avatar’s 2nd weekend in 2009 and it still managed a phenomenal drop of less than 2% for the weekend.2 hours ago, MrPink said:Wasn't that snow storm on opening weekend?
2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:it was the 1st weekend im pretty sure
2 hours ago, Cheddar Please said:wasn't the snowstorm on the first week? I'm pretty sure the OW was depressed, which is why the 2nd wknd hold was so good by comparison
There were two major storms. One from December 16-20, and a second from Dec 22-28. So both the first and second weekend were impacted, as well as weekdays. There were also dozens of tornadoes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2009_North_American_blizzard
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_North_American_Christmas_blizzard
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41 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:
Yes, please.
James Cameron should start tying all his movies together. The JCCU, James Cameron Cinematic Universe. Have the Avatar peeps fight Aliens (you can have Sigourney in 2 roles!), and finish it up with them going back in time, where Jake's avatar will be swimming in the water in the Atlantic, and find Jack and save his life. They take Jack to a future. His memories are all messed up, and he's given a new identity; Kyle Reese.
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25 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:
That doesn't make sense. At least not all of it. Inflation is lower than it was in the summer and then it was hit after hit. And the family holiday PVOD doesn't add up because Sing 2 was super successful the same window.
Inflation being lower just means costs are increasing, but not as quickly. But when you take into account the breakneck inflation of the past year or two, even 'lower' inflation is going to bite into the pocket book. Also, most inflation relief has been fuel prices dropping, but other costs have continued to increase at, or above, the summer rate. Food in particular. Interest rates rising is also hurting people. Don't know how American mortgages are, but in Canada they are 5 year terms, and tons of people are getting hit by sky high rates that are basically doubling their mortgage payment. I feel bad for the people who are currently blissfully unaware of rate hikes, and will end up facing a real shock when they have to renew. I wish 25-30 year fixed mortgages were a thing in Canada.
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3 hours ago, Mulder said:
Not bad but if that holds, and it's still very early so who knows, that'd be lower than Rogue One's first Monday.
Just a touch lower than the first Avatar's Monday, unadjusted. So it's on track for over $760m, no worries. Since it's already like 55m ahead of A1, we can basically just call $800m locked. Write it in spaghettiOs, flush it down the pipes, post it on MySpace, carve it in ice. It's a Cold Stone fucking Creamery lock,
2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:did disney really go out of their way to tell people to watch it in imax? there was a poster I guess, but I really dont remember anything more than that, think its just customers making a decision
Maybe "you have to see it on the best screen" is the cultural impact everyone talks about.
2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:guess never doubt the lack of fanfiction on that fanfiction website.
Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters could end up being more profitable than Avatar 2, lol. Did $226m WW on a $50m budget. HG:WH2 when?
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2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
Well, I mean, I gotta be reasonable Eeyore - like the 1st contest, when someone said $100M, I was gonna say "are you serious", but since I hadn't for the $1 bid:)...
Like the drop I put above would be bad, but possible...my brain cannot fathom $10M more than that with Christmas Day in play...
$100,000,000
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2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
🤣🤣🤣
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14 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:
Meaning @Elessar:
Having money doesn’t make you a genius. He isn’t self made, neither a genius. Absolutely nothing he owns he created, designed or invented. He is just a billionaire that really wants to look like Tony Stark but is more like Justin Hammer than most realized back then and it becomes more obvious every single day. He didn’t invent Tesla, Space X or Twitter. He bought all of that, all of that were previously owned - and invented - by other people.
Tesla had never built a car when he took it over. SpaceX I'm pretty sure was founded by Musk, after he couldn't get ICBMs from Russia, so decided to build rockets himself. Twitter's failures from now on will be largely attributed to him; why wouldn't Twitter's successes?
It's interesting how some see him as having little role in SpaceX, Tesla, and his other companies, and yet thinking how he runs Twitter is emblematic of how he runs those companies, and that Twitter's failure/success will lay directly upon his shoulders. Though let's be real, if Twitter becomes profitable and successful, many will say he had no role in it. "He only bought it." Then why wasn't it making money before? Why wasn't Tesla making bank? Why wasn't NASA flying reusable rockets? Pretty sure NASA estimated it would have cost them like $20B to do what Musk did with $200M.
Musk doesn't seem particularly pleasant. But he seems able to get results that existing institutions cannot. Adoption of electric vehicles would likely have taken decade(s) longer without Musk. A big sticking point was that auto unions were firmly against electric vehicles, and largely refused to build them. EVs take fewer manhours to build, fewer manhours means fewer union dues. So it wasn't in the interest of unions to have EVs.
Government contractors for NASA had little reason to build reusable rockets. Reusable rockets means fewer manhours, which means a lower price, which means lower profits (even if the margins are slightly better).
This happens across the economy. There's little incentive to increase efficiency by many institutions, because the status quo is profitable. Without billionaires to bankroll startups that will challenge the existing players, there's no momentum forward. The need to grow quickly requires a lot of capital.
There are of course examples of the opposite, like Amazon subsidizing the price of goods in order to wipe out competitors (like the diaper website), then raising the price again. It's a bit of a problem when companies use capital to undermine competitor prices by just selling at a loss, in order to secure marketshare, rather than using the capital to create a new efficiency or something. But Musk doesn't seem to do that with his companies. But there are a lot of billionaires who do.
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6 minutes ago, M37 said:
To me, "in theory" implies a higher probability outcome, and again, TGM was a significant outlier for legs of $100M openers. Can Avatwo beat it? Sure, I suppose its possible, but I wouldn't classify that as "shouldn't have a problem" - even "in theory" - because it would also be an extraordinarily low probably/outlier result
Alright. To put it another way, Avatar 2's release window puts it in the best position to beat TGM's legs. If Mav were put in this window, its legs would surpass its own. This window has no competition, won't be losing PLFs in 2 weeks, has a higher ticket price. The things specifically applicable to Avatar, like demand for seeing it on premium screens and the long runtime, help to artificially lower its opening weekend and shift demand forward. The biggest thing against it, the next two Saturdays falling on low demand days, shouldn't impact the overall gross, because demand will just shift to another day.
So what I'm not trying to say is "Avatar will easily beat TGM's multiplier." What I am trying to say is that the path to get there is unobstructed, and in some ways easier (especially with higher ticket prices, since the same number of tickets sold would put A2 ahead of TGM). The only factor is going to be the audience showing up.
Bit off-topic, but what's with people flocking to theaters on Christmas day? I'd have thought that would be the quietest day of the year.
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7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
This looks so bad, i really hope it's just an bad edited trailer that doesn't really sell the actual movie because i was so excited about it
I liked the trailer. Super pumped to see the film. Though I don't know if I'll hit the theaters for it.
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7 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:
Bolded: of course not. Saving the rain Amazon forest isn’t just a Brazil’s responsibility, but the world’s. I agree that getting an awful interview from more than 10 years ago isn’t cool, but it’s not like A2 does anything to address the criticisms of the first film, let alone the second one. It does has merit, and shrugging away does more harm than good, in my opinion.
I can't speak to the criticisms of A2, since I haven't seen it, and being a descendant from the land of colonizers leaves me with little perspective. But as a colonizer, I can completely understand the view of how whites got to basically run ramshod around the world, exploit the hell out of everyone and everything, then slowly come to our senses like we're waking up from a horrible bender, and suddenly decide that the peoples we colonized (or attempted to colonize) have a duty to protect their environment, while we sit on a hoard of wealth created by our pilfering.
It's basically like having a mansion on the waterfront, and when some dude comes to build a shack next to it, the mansion owner says "can't build here, this is protected land. Wouldn't want the environment to suffer."
"But you built a 90 room mansion here? All I need to build is a simple shack."
"Sorry bud, this was built by my very racist, slave owning, colonizing great-great-great-great grandparents. But slavery, racism and colonialism are over now, and we're equals. We both cannot build shacks on this land, and we can both buy existing mansions on this land."
Guess James Cameron is a bit like the mansion owner..
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3 minutes ago, M37 said:
There is no evidence to support this claim when looking at TGM’s run, starting with a -29% second weekend that Avatar isn’t likely to match with calendar configuration. You could make that claim by comparing to NWH or Rogue One, but TGM didn’t behave like a normal big opening, so topping it’s multiplier requires a similar outlier outcome
I mentioned the Saturdays issue. Though A2 is unlikely to fall 53% on its first (non-holiday) weekday. It's unlikely to fall 42% in it's third weekend. It'll probably have better weekdays than TGM.
Of course if it does do any of those, then that turkey's probably done.
But still, in theory (theory being the most important word in my comment), it shouldn't have a problem beating TGM's multiplier. Christmas eve and NYE falling on a Saturday shouldn't vaporize demand, but simply shift it. That doesn't mean it will beat it, just that it shouldn't be a true obstacle,
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23 minutes ago, Eastwood47 said:
Lets not forget A2's next obstacle... Huge winter storms tracking to hit the midwest and east cost Christmas weekend.
Avatar 1, of course, dealt with not one, but two major winter storms (as well as 15 tornadoes). The first storm in its OW, the second from the first weekdays until the end of its second weekend. Cut a couple billion in holiday spending.
16 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:Hmm, not sure, I really don’t think so. My rule of thumb is that COVID / war (and the ER that goes with it) resulted on around +-$500m from the bigger players (NWH, TGM and now A2). It’s an exercise in ‘what if’ but I insist that A2 is and should have always been what me and others have said for a decade, reestablishing the franchise to the general audience. Cameron took way too damn long for it, so what happens next is to see if the GA rekindles with the message and the world of the franchise… or not:
I saw this yesterday and I was avoiding to touch the can of worms that is some of the backlash that the film and Cameron are facing on social media, and I wouldn’t dare to bring this up on the film’s OT, but I do think that some of the criticism here has some major merit. Cameron needs to open his world to more diverse voices, not only among the cast and screenwriting, but also ar helm of the production for the own good of the world he created, in my opinion. The issues about how the first film and now the second one delve deep into colonialism allegory is something that could have bothered some back in 2009 (and it did rub me the wrong way back then) and it does sting harder now after we got at very least three popular sci-fi films that explored colonialism from a diverse perspective (Black Panther, Prey, Wakanda Forever).
The world is different than what it was back in 2009. Just being the ‘king of the world’ isn’t good enough anymore. And that’s a good thing.
War may have been a boon for TGM.
Is the article in the second tweet really saying that Cameron fighting to save the Amazon is bad, since it means that Brazil can't exploit it, and Brazil deserves to exploit it because white people have exploited the environment, too? Interesting take. I guess it looks a bit white saviour-ish to advocate for non-white causes. If Brazil wants to clear cut the Amazon, like America was, then I guess that should be their right to self-determination.
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36 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
Not sure why you're making impossible what ifs when I am simply adjusting its OW for the holiday shifting demand around just for sake of having more 'proper' legs comparisons. Sure without holiday it probably opens smaller than a simple number shift but even then a more realistic OW would've been around ~140M. Which isn't a knock to TGM, I'm just saying the multiplier number is slightly drugged up by holiday monday, which should be worth keeping in mind if people want to use TGM as a multiplier comparison.
I don't really think Puss will be any threat, mostly because if it takes away showtimes they won't be the PLFs which are what A2 is selling best on by far anyway. If multiplier disappoints, that will be entirely the film's own doing.
The impossible what ifs were just jokes. As for Puss, I wonder if it might take away some showtimes at multiplexes that have multiple PLFs. Theaters like to stagger their showtimes, especially for the same film. So Puss in Boots' <2 hour runtime is an amazing film to throw in to help stagger times. Though I don't know how much freedom the chains have in this regard.
17 minutes ago, Mulder said:So break even is 1.5 billion at most with marketing factored in. I guess what they end up doing with Avatar 5 and anything else depends on how Disney feels about it just hitting the break even/a little bit over that.
How much would marketing be on this film? Also, I imagine that A3-5 will be much cheaper, as a lot of the costs for A2 will benefit the coming films. And much of the marketing right now is important to help build an audience for the franchise, which will make future marketing cheaper. So the studio might not be too worried about breaking even on this, as the next 3+ films could be their money makers.
Also.. if A2 'underperforms', I wouldn't be surprised if we see the studios leveraging that to claw away backend deals for A3+, negotiate lower salaries, etc. Because they know that A2 will be in the hole financially, they aren't going to pay much out on the backend, and then they can wrestle away the potentially lucrative backend deals on future films. That's assuming anybody took a deal on the backend of this film.
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