MeowwoeM
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Posts posted by MeowwoeM
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Where do we post our predictions @SLAM!
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It opened in Poland this weekend, which is the reason it didn't drop.
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How did Hobbs and Shaw increase 76%
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23 minutes ago, pepsa said:
@Omni any idea how corpse still thinks TS4 will hit $110m? It had a cume of $62.5m till last weekend, $71-72m by this sunday. Maybe 12m next week, that would mean $84m it would need $26m but with I2's legs it doesn't get anywhere close to that.
According to BOM, TS3 got $30M post-Obon, but that had amazing drops. I think Corpse probably changed prediction.
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Meh start for The Lion King. Surprised that it's below Far From Home. It'll probably have a 12× multiplier so ¥8B is possible
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TS4 should pass TS3 tomorrow. Hope it reaches Shrek 2
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It's down like 70% in UK, so maybe $15M?
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4 hours ago, pepsa said:
Asumming it makes $100m in Japan. It follows I2 drops domistic from now on (it has been dropping better so far).
OS-Japan making 23m more, and all the markets it has left doing $30m (They did a bit over $40m for TS3) it should end with $1085m $1.085B. So has a $18m margin for error. I would say 70% - 80% chance it goes over. A lot should go wrong for it do miss TS3.
$23M OS-Japan is lowballing (40% drop). Also, Incredibles 2 grossed ~$50M from the markets where TS4 didn't open yet. Im predicting $1.11B.
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7 hours ago, catlover said:
Since we're in the summer season and movies make more on weekdays than weekends, I think we should look at weekly drops rather than weekend drops to determine how good they're performing.
Weathering With You dropped 17.5% week
TS4 dropped 16.8% this week.
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19 minutes ago, cannastop said:
I think realistically, Frozen 2 is going to make $150m in Japan. Just going by declines from other record breaking movies like Spirited Away or Weathering With You.
I don't think so. Just because they were made by Miyazaki, it doesn't mean that they have to do the same numbers. I think a 20% decrease similar to Harry Potter 1 & 2 is more likely.
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7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
20.7 I guess. Should mean around 61 mil weekend.
20% drop?
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49 minutes ago, Royce said:
Exactly, I don't want Frozen 2 to be seen as a disappointment even if it does well (but not $600M dom or $2B ww)
The same thing happened with Age of Ultron
Again we gotta stop comparing the Pixar sequels with Frozen 2
FD, I2 and TS4 had that nostalgia factor
TS4 can also be seen as the "finale" of a beloved franchise that's 24 years old plus it has the rave reviews from critics (97% on RT)
Frozen is merely 6 years old
A peak is a peak and Frozen's was just massive
It's just hard to see F2 being bigger than that
That's what I meant when I mentioned Shrek 3
Those loud noises on the internet seem to pick and choose which popular movies to crap on huh?
Never seen any hate towards the Avengers movies or whatever
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Anyway...
I guess I had a lot of pent up anger, I gotta stop taking these movies seriously lol
That one comment before my post just set me off, my apologies, didn't mean to generalize all of you with "bandwagoners"
The point is that Frozen hasn't peaked popularity. Hell, Toy Story 4 and The Lion King (2019) passed it recently. It's the 8th highest-grossing animated movie domestically when it certainly doesn't feel like it as shown by blu-ray sales. There is ton of room to increase in growing markets, even if it doesn't feel significant. If you remove the OS grosses from Despicable Me 3 and Frozen, Despicable Me 3 is actually ahead of it overseas. I don't believe that there is any other prospect to show how big Frozen 2, and there's like 1% chance it reaches $2B. $1.6B ($310M + Frozen) seems about right, especially if Disney doesn't disappoint its audience.
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14 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I also know there's a danger in on YT analytics after Pika Pika, and to a degree TLK.
But let's look at TLK for a second. Just on the main channel:
TLK (teaser): 1.3m upvotes
TLK (trailer): 693k upvotes
That's a pretty harsh drop. But whatever, still plenty of upvotes.
Now let's look at Frozen 2;
F2 (teaser): 852k upvotes
F2 (trailer): 807k upvotes
The full trailer has been out for four fewer months and has nearly caught up with the first teaser. The trailer views of both are nearly identical (41m each).
I thought for a while that the drop in TLK's view count and like count was a warning sign that it wouldn't explode, and look at that. While it's massively successful, not quite as much as it could.
Frozen 2, meanwhile is either holding steady or gaining in popularity given the time difference between the two trailers.
So with all of that in mind, again: What Frozen backlash?
Definitely! The Lion King, similarly to Detectice Pikachu, had curiosity factor in it. I didn't/wont watch The Lion King in theaters; I just wanted to check out the CGI. How massive Frozen 2 will be depends on the WoM, which I expect to be excellent..
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Differ
4 minutes ago, Royce said:Frozen was Shrek 2, it skipped the cult hit stage of Shrek, it just exploded and peaked with one movie
There's not much room to grow, Frozen 2 should be compared to Shrek 3
Shrek 2 also had legs and huge DVD sales for its time, but Shrek 3 didn't outgross it
Like Shrek 3, I'm expecting F2 to have the biggest opening...but that's it
And I wish people would stop comparing this to I2, that had a 14 year build up of nostalgia and was the only Pixar movie where people actually demanded a sequel
Whereas before the trailers came out everyone was crapping on this franchise especially when that long Olaf short film got a lot of hate during Coco's run
Difference is that Shrek 3 was hated (as shown by its legs). Frozen 2 looks like LotR shit! Im excited for it and I despise the first one.
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9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
Not sure if I have any I2 predictions down on paper, but I think I thought 500-650 was the range. Spent 14 years being one of the most anticipated sequels.
That was definitely not the range. Almost everyone thought Dory NA> I2 NA cuz Finding Nemo NA > The Incredibles NA.
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I think Frozen 2 will surprise everyone as Incredibles 2 did last year. Frozen grew significantly after it ended its run. Hence why its legs and Blu-ray sales are insane. Just go sort Frozen videos of this year by view count. If it's as good as the trailer, I think it can grow as much as 40% from its predecessor's adjusted gross. OtOH, it won't grow as much OS as it's very likely to drop in Japan.
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CGI in anime or any non-Disney movie looks weird (except for How to Train Your Dragon 3)
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5 minutes ago, HeatSeeker said:
TS4 killing it. Impressive for a fourth franchise entry that nobody really asked for.
That's very anecdotal
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I don't think that it'll cross $2B, but it's very possible since Frozen has grown significantly since its release. I think that is way more hyped than Incredibles 2 and TS4 overseas. The first one did $827M OS-China, which is the 6th highest ever behind Avatar, Endgame, Titanic, The Force Awakens, IW, and Deathly Hallows Part 2. $850M~$1,000M OS-China, $100~$150M China, $500M~$600M domestic. $1.45B~$1.75B. Im predicting $1.6B.
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I can see it topping $2B although it's extremely unlikely if it has the same gross of I2 in NA, Minions in Europe, Toy Story 4 in Latin America, Frozen in Japan and South Korea, Coco in China, and better than all in other Asian markets. $1.65B for now ($600M NA, $300M Japan + SK, $100M China, $650M RotW.)
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1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:
Meanwhile Annabelle Comes Home has dropped like a rock to $8,000
WTF $8K?
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Heyyyy anyone knows what's up with Gavin? He locked his Twitter account
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by MeowwoeM
On eiga, TLK is 3.6, TS4 is 3.8, and Aladdin is 4.1. On filmark, both TS4 and TLK are 3.9, and Aladdin is 4.2