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Omni last won the day on January 15

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About Omni

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  1. Second Thursday drop is always worse than the first. Everything below a 30% drop today is wonderful, -30/35% would be great too. The movie is fine ("fine" in order to get close to 30 millions of course, 'cause it is already moooore than just generally fine) as long as it remains above 450K. A 500K+ Thursday (<=30% drop) would make a 4M 3rd weekend (-33%) more likely than not. Anyways, Maleficent is opening and it's getting more showtimes than Joker. We'll see if it's another Bohemian/Grinch situation (Grinch getting twice as many showtimes as BR on OW, with BR doing almost 3x the gross of the Grinch) or if Maleficent 2 is really going to post big numbers.
  2. Presale? This is Italy. Unless we have a Star Wars 7 or an Endgame, people just phisically go to the movies. Presales are usually so weak that they're never (never, not even for Endgame) tracked. Anyways, at #2 there's 2 WEATHERING WITH YOU 14/10/2019 JPN NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 149.573 15.876 Up 55% from Monday, when it grossed 96K. A pretty good success for a 3-day event that ends today.
  3. Nah, this is just Italy being Italy. It happened a lot of times in the past. Also, adult movies tend to increase way more than 50% on Fridays and often get 100%+ on Saturdays, and Joker did +32% and +72% respectively last week, so there's a lot of room to recover.
  4. Ooops fixed Yeah this number for the Joker is a little alarming. Though not too much, as it's something similar to what happened to Inside Out, and to other movies as well. Inside Out for example was down 5% over the weekend and then 27% Mon-to-Mon. One could say Joker's retention is much worse, but it's also true that Inside Out's first dailies, while stronger than usual for an animated movie, were far as sensational as Joker's: a little less than an 80% drop for the former, a 50% drop for the latter. As long as the movie increases 10%+ both today and tomorrow and remains above 450K on Thursday, it's completely fine.
  5. WEEKEND RESULTS (10/13 OCTOBER) RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA 1 Joker 6.047.348 -3.5% 15.511.395 120.90/ 310.20 2 Gemini Man 959.439 NEW 959.439 19.20/19.20 3 Abominable 490.041 -37% 1.386.958 9.80/27.70 4 Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 444.904 -51% 11.286.113 8.90/225.70 5 Brave Ragazze (It) 319.766 NEW 319.766 6.40/6.40 6 Long Shot 306.361 NEW 306.361 6.10/6.10 7 The Hole in the Ground (Ir) 224.338 NEW 224.338 4.50/4.50 8 La Vérité (Fr) 215.861 NEW 218.242 4.30/4.40 9 Tuttapposto (It) 166.627 -60% 658.110 3.30/13.20 10 The Big Trip (Usa/Rus) 160.218 NEW 160.218 3.20/3.20 The weekend was up 24.59% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has increased to 13.64%. Another 0.68% gained over last year, and this is always thanks to Joker and its crazy weekdays. If it can keep the momentum a little longer, Joker will become THE box office run of this year, even if it fails to beat The Lion King (which is impossible) and Endgame (which is now a 20/80). Just to put this into perspective, the only Hollywood movies that ever managed a non-Christmas second weekend above 6 millions are Avatar and The Lion King. Every other monster (Alice IW, Minions, Inside Out, Ice Age 3, Endgame, Bohemian Rhapsody) failed to go that high. So far, the Phoenix movie is making Bohemian Rhapsody's run look dull. I just can't believe what's happening. Let's use the Inside Out comparison again. The Pixar masterpiece added 11.75 millions after a 5.40M second weekend. If Joker has its legs, it will add 11.75*1.11=13.10 millions. That means a 28.60M finish. Endgame stands at 30.28. I would be cautious about this because unfortunately this weekend there's Maleficent 2, and if The Nutcracker can get close to 10 millions, Jolie surely has the potential to easily pass that mark. IF Joker somehow drops around 30% this weekend, Endgame will be in trouble. If it drops 40% it will be safe. If it somehow manages a 20% drop...well... Everything else is not interesting. About Maleficent 2, I'd go with 500/600K OD, 3/3.5M OW and 10M total. Not predicting more because of the Looking Glass.
  6. Joker already #3 for the year, beating Aladdin's 15.43M gross in 11 days. Already at 2.2M admissions. More later. But this is like a movie opening at 125M on OW in North America and being basically flat on second weekend.
  7. I was drawing a reasonable trajectory. With a 180M WW weekend, it's an absolute lock for 900+, very very likely to finish above the billie. It's going to slow down at some point, but past phenoma showed us that it's not happening in the first weeks of release. Also, the biggest blockbusters until Frozen 2 are Maleficent 2 and Terminator - not too threatening to be honest.
  8. 351M overseas after a 123.7 weekend. Absolute minimum is 650 millions overseas, and that's if it immediately loses its momentum. Given the WOM it's getting in most countries, one could see a 4x multiplier from this weekend, meaning 375M more. That's 725M OS. Assuming 350M from NA, we're at 1.075. Not too far away.
  9. What the heck... I thought Batman vs Superman was the target, but it looks like this may beat Far From Home worldwide. Incredible!
  10. Very well, its Saturday increase is on par with the one it got on OW. Now let's hope it remains about flat on Sunday. Also, the last time a non-Cameron Hollywood movie had a 2M+ SECOND Saturday outside Christmas holidays was in the month of Never-ary.
  11. Since a sub-20% drop is locked and a sub-10% is probably happening (though not certain, it has to match last weekend's 70%+ Saturday rise), thanks to no big football match on Sunday as XO21 mentioned, I guess it's time to give back a look at Inside Out's performance, another movie that opened at the beginning of Autumn (2nd half of September in that case), had a crazy good OW around 6M, performed much better than expected on weekdays and was close to flat on weekend 2. OW: 5.70 // total 6.29 (Wed opener) 2nd weekend 5.40 (-5.5%) // total 13.58 3rd weekend 3.88 (-28%) // total 18.75 4th weekend 2.17 (-44%) // total 21.72 5th weekend 1.31 (-40%) // total 23.67 6th weekend 0.58 (-56%) // total 24.48 Assuming a weekend of 5.5/6.0M (down around 10% from its 6.26M opening), Joker will already be above 15 millions by Sunday night. Then it would need: * about a 1.8x multiplier to beat Spider Man (2002) and become the second highest grossing superhero movie ever - LOCKED * about a 1.9x multiplier to beat Beauty and the Beast as the 3rd highest grosser since February 2016 - LOCKED * about a 2.8x multiplier to beat Star Wars TFA - DOABLE * about a 3.6x multiplier to beat Endgame - VERY VERY HARD, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
  12. Well, it had crazy weekdays in many places and a holiday in South Korea. In the UK chart people said theaters were unusually busy for a work day. In Italy it grossed close to 50% of OW over Mon-Wed alone. Pretty sure this is up to Wednesday.
  13. 10/10/2019 (Thursday) 1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 876.301 130.376 2 GEMINI MAN 10/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 102.218 16.241 3 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 50.309 7.607 4 HOLE - L'ABISSO (THE HOLE IN THE GROUND) 10/10/2019 IRL KOCH MEDIA S.R.L. € 27.483 4.303 5 BRAVE RAGAZZE 10/10/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 25.656 4.370 6 NON SUCCEDE... MA SE SUCCEDE (LONG SHOT) 10/10/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 24.463 4.082 7 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 22.395 4.196 8 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 19.490 3.672 9 LE VERITA' (LE VERITE') 10/10/2019 FRA BIM DISTRIB. S.R.L. € 16.981 3.068 10 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 13.101 2.120 Well, Joker is down 15% from its crazy OD. Everything from -25% to +5% is possible over the weekend. No words. Gemini Man did decently and may reach 1 million over the 4-day frame. Slightly better than expected. Not bad for Long Shot either. Local comedy Brave Ragazze, on the other hand, failed to reach its potential. Now the question is: can Joker do what Inside Out did in 2005? Can it drop below 10%? If it does, it will have a solid chance at beating Star Wars: TFA (!!!) and even a slight chance at catching Endgame. A very small one, but still a chance. On the more conservative side, everything below a 20% drop guarantees a #2 finish in the all time superhero chart.
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