Disney has been overall more reliable than Pixar in the last decade, with the first Ralph being their lowest grosser at a still respectable 471M WW. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur stands at 332M as the lowest Pixar grosser ever unadjusted. The problem with Pixar is that they occasionally miss the target, and make a product with no apparent appeal and/or a goofy/weird premise. Onward always looked closer to a GD than to an Inside Out, but covid put it in a very risky spot. GD got a risky spot as well by being released a few weeks before than the (now second) most anticipated movie ever, so it just got sacrificed. Same will happen to Onward. 300/350M is the likely range that early numbers from NA, Germany, Spain and other countries suggest. It's a movie that will never see a China release I guess (not like it would matter that much...) and that Japan will just ignore like it did to GD. It is just the wrong movie at the wrong time.