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Omni

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  1. DORY INCREDIBLES 2 OD (Wed): 607K OD (Thu): 500K Thursday: 369K Friday: 750K Friday: 653K Saturday: 1.7M Sunday: 2.4M OW: 5.55M (incl. previews) Monday: 400K Tuesday: 420K Wednesday: 580K Thursday: 290K I2's Friday jump is better than Dory (+77% vs +50%), and while that had to be expected since it opened on a Wednesday, it's still a good sign. Dory's Saturday increase was far from strong, so here's hope I2 will overtake it today. 493K for the Nun, a 4% drop from its OD. Weaker hold than It's.
  2. Time to panic... DORY INCREDIBLES 2 OD (Wed): 607K OD (Thu): 500K Thursday: 369K Friday: 750K Saturday: 1.7M Sunday: 2.4M OW: 5.55M (incl. previews) Monday: 400K Tuesday: 420K Wednesday: 580K Thursday: 290K Close to a 40% on Thursday, despite losing NO showtime (which is half of the reason movies tend to tumble on Thursday). The only hope is that yesterday was just a bad day for animated movies, as Hotel Transylvania 3 dropped over 50% from Wednesday and is down 75% Thu-to-Thu. Still, a 369K Thursday is closer to Dory's disappointing 2nd Thursday than to Dory's first, which is alarming. Mamma Mia! and MI6 both fell like a rock, too. The former is down like 65% from last week, and MI6 only managed to keep the drop under 60%. Rogue Nation is now definitely out of reach. The only good number of the day is the OD registered by The Nun: 525K. It's no It (which opened with twice that numbers), but it's still one hell of an opening for a horror.
  3. The BO history of Bourne is much more normal than Ocean's. First and second chapter were modest hits, the last one of the trilogy got a significant increase and then the reboot didn't gain much interest (a 9-year gap matters). And...yes, box office went down a lot in Italy. The biggest difference between now and last decade is the money made by Italian films. 15/20 years ago it wasn't hard for a local comedy to make more than 20M euros, while now even a 10M grosser is considered a strong success. But American productions are in trouble, too. Here's an example (the highest-grossing hollywood movies ever) : 1. Avatar > 65.7M 2. Titanic > 50.2M 3. Alice in Wonderland > 30.4M 4. Ice Age 3 > 29.7M 5. The Da Vinci Code > 28.7M 6. Star Wars: The Force Awakens > 25.6M 7. Inside Out > 25.4M 8. Harry Potter 1 > 25.3M 9. Madagascar 2 > 25.1M 10. The Lion King > 23.5M (rerelease included - 4.1M) 11. Minions > 23.4M 12. The Lord of the Rings 3 > 22.8M 13. Finding Nemo > 22.7M (rerelease included - 0.8M) 14. Harry Potter 7/2 > 22.2M 15. Madagascar 3 > 21.9M 16. The Lord of the Ring 1 > 21.4M 17. Madagascar > 21.2M 18. Harry Potter 2 > 20.9M 19. Shrek 2 > 20.9M 20. The Lord of the Rings 2 > 20.5M 21. Beauty and the Beast > 20.5M 22. Shrek 3 > 20.2M 23. Harry Potter 4 > 20.1M 24. The Passion of the Christ > 19.9M 25. Pirates of the Carribean 2 > 19.9M 2015 was the exception, with 2 movies (SW7, Inside Out) entering the top 10, and Minions getting to #11. But when you remove that, the entire list is Cameron+a lot of movies released 20-to-10 years ago. Beauty and the Beast, the biggest success of the last 3 years, didn't even enter the top 20. Infinity War, biggest movie of this year, will be...out of the top 30!
  4. Not too exciting for I2, looks headed for a debut just under Dory's 5.5M. But since 75/80% of the money will come from Saturday and Sunday, and since increases are very fluctuating, anything from 4.5 to 6+ can still happen. The good news is that weather is getting worse during the weekend (yesterday near Venice it felt like it was July).
  5. Here's something very odd I've noticed about the Ocean's franchise: Ocean's Eleven > 17.8M total gross Ocean's Twelve > 10.8M Ocean's Thirteen > 5.8M Ocean's Eight > 2.1M Never seen such a relentless downfall. At this point, Ocean's Nine will likely get a negative gross.
  6. Considering Incredibles 2 is opening tomorrow, here's a reminder of Finding Dory's path (data in euros): OD (Thu): 500K Friday: 750K Saturday: 1.7M Sunday: 2.4M OW: 5.55M (incl. previews) Monday: 400K Tuesday: 420K Wednesday: 580K Thursday: 290K (ouch!) Friday: 470K Saturday: 1.0M Sunday: 1.12M 2nd Weekend: 3.04M (-46%) 2nd Monday: 180K 2nd Tuesday: 200K 2nd Wednesday: 290K 3rd Thursday: 137K 3rd Friday: 230K 3rd Saturday: 750K 3rd Sunday: 970K 3rd Weekend: 2.13M (-30%) 4th weekend: 840K (Pets opened) 5th weekend: 360K 6th weekend: 160K 7th weekend: 40K Total gross: 15.1M So Dory opened on a Thursday, got a 4-day OW very close to IO's (highest grossing Disney-Pixar movie ever in the market, 2nd of all time behind Ice Age 3 which was boosted by 3D), fell very hard on its 2nd weekend (where it should have had the best hold), and somehow recovered the weekend after only to collapse for the rest of its run. Incredibles 2 opens on a Wednesday, which is by far the biggest of the weekdays here (the equivalent of Tuesday in NA). Dory's 500K first Thursday translates to a Wednesday of about 700K, which is the minimum I2 should get. Weather is still kind of sunny, so the opening might be subdued. The original opened at 3.7M and finished with 15.6M, but that was a 3-day opening (now all OWs are 4-day)...and also ome time ago Oh, and The Meg passed the 5M euros mark. Nice success!
  7. -RANK- MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS PROJECTED GROSS 1 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 0.68 -37% 2.52 3.50 2 Hotel Transylvania 3 0.64 -39% 11.47 12.10 3 The Equalizer 2 0.59 - 0.59 1.50 4 Gotti 0.53 - 0.53 1.20 5 Mission Impossible 6: Fallout 0.47 -49% 4.65 5.40 6 Slender Man 0.35 -40% 1.18 1.50 7 Adrift 0.31 -48% 2.95 3.30 8 Shoplifter (Japan) 0.24 - 0.24 0.50 9 Sulla Mia Pelle (Italy) 0.20 - 0.24 0.50 10 La Profezia dell'Armadillo 0.15 - 0.15 0.30 Better drops this weekend. Thanks to last weekend being a little subdued and to no competition, HT3 managed a sub-40% drop in its 4th weekend. Incredibles 2 is coming this Wednesday though, so it shouldn't have another million in its pockets. Bad opening for Equalizer 2, 40% below the original. Mission Impossible just cannot recover - worst drop in the top 10. At this point I'll just leave any optimism and say it will finish under Rogue Nation's 5.5M total.
  8. 800M won't happen. 12M weekend in China > should add 12/14M according to statistics and potus 4M OS-Ch > maaaybe 12M thanks to Japan 5 more millions domestically 790M WW total Still a massive success!
  9. It opens the day after tomorrow in Italy. My guess is 16M euros/19M dollars (about on parr with #1, slightly more than Dory and 10% less than DM3).
  10. Despite losing 1/2 of last Thursday's admissions, Mamma Mia! remains #1. Considering its Thu-to-Weekend multiplier was absolutely atrocious last week, I'm expecting a decent drop of 40% or so. The Equalizer 2 opened #2 with 90K. The first opened just shy of 1M over the 3-day frame, and finished with 2.75M. Looks like the sequel won't get there. Hotel Transylvania (61K) and MI6 (58K) have been hit hard by the start of the school. The drop is worse for MI6 as it doesn't appeal to kids and was supposed to overtake HT3 on weekdays.
  11. Strong dailies for Mamma Mia, around 45% of the whole OW in just the Mon-Wed period. Let's see how it holds today, that's the key.
  12. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Pinocchio Toy Story 3 Alice in Wonderland Aladdin Zootopia The Lion King Beauty and the Beast 101 Dalmatians Nightmare Before Christmas Frozen Hercules Brisby and the Secret of Nimh Monsters vs Aliens Monsters Inc Inside Out Tarzan Wreck-it-Ralph The Incredibles The Three Caballeros Spirited Away The Rescuers The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh Saludos Amigos Wall-E The Hunchback of Notre Dame The Sword in the Stone Toy Story Big Hero 6 Cinderella Toy Story 2 Finding Nemo Sleeping Beauty A Bug’s Life Bambi The Great Mouse Detective Coco The Iron Giant Megamind The Emperor’s New Groove Rango Brave Ratatouille Peter Pan Tangled Lilo & Stitch Finding Dory The Jungle Book Fantasia Mulan Fantasia 2000 Polar Express Duck Tales The Movie Treasure Planet Arriety Coraline Pooh’s Grand Adventure Moana Dumbo Ice Age Lady and the Tramp Princess Mononoke A Goofy Movie Brother Bear Corpse Bride Balto The Rescuers Down Under The Adventures of Ichabod and Mr Toad Cars Up Oliver & Co The Land Before Time Dinosaurs The Croods The Black Cauldron Pocahontas The Aristocats Howl’s Moving Castle Aladdin and the Prince of Thieves Bolt Cars 3 Fun and Fancy Free The Return of Jafar Atlantis The Tigger Movie Make Mine Music Melody Time Shrek Piglet’s Big Movie Winnie the Pooh (2011) Meet the Robinsons An American Tail The Fox and the Hound The Lion King 2 How to Train your Dragon Kung Fu Panda Chicken Little The Princess and the Frog Monsters University The Prince of Egypt
  13. WEEKEND ACTUALS 7-9 SEPTEMBER - all in million € - -RANK- MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS PROJECTED GROSS 1 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 1.07 - 1.35 3.20 2 Hotel Transylvania 3 1.04 -55% 10.52 12.10 3 Mission Impossible 6: Fallout 0.92 -52% 3.89 6.00 4 Adrift 0.59 -42% 2.41 3.50 5 Slender Man 0.58 - 0.58 1.50 6 Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 0.32 - 0.37 0.80 7 Christopher Robin 0.28 -57% 1.21 1.50 8 I Feel Pretty 0.20 -62% 2.11 2.30 9 Ride 0.17 - 0.17 0.30 10 Revenge 0.14 - 0.14 0.30 Nasty weekend indeed. Mamma Mia! 2 is one hell of a failure. Once you take into consideration inflation, it will lose like 75% of the original's audience. Hotel Transylvania had another bad hold. It might hold decently next weekend due to weather probably worsening, but that's it. It will struggle to get a 2,4x multiplier from its 5-day opening. Still a huge success, though. Mission Impossble is just 200K above MI5 because of weaker dailies, and will have a hard time getting the -15% hold MI5 somehow got on its 3rd weekend. Still, all things considered it should have enough gas in the tank to get to 6M (which would be about a 10% improvement over MI5). The other openers were non-existent. And Christopher Robin...oh bother! Notable totals (movies outside the WE top 10): The Meg: 4.94M Ant-Man 2: 4.76M Ocean's 8: 2.12M
  14. Maybe they are, but it's certainly not assured. It made 42,4M globally this weekend, and most (around 30M) comes from China, which should add 35-40 more millions. So it needs the rest to make the remaining 35M, and it won't be easy.
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