RJ 95
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Posts posted by RJ 95
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Realistically, even 50-55% drop shouldn't suprise anyone because last week holiday that soften it's drop but next week it should back to normal hold though. I mean let's see
21-27 Oct : 82.8m
Last week : 63.6m ( 23.2% drop)
This week : 30m ( 51.5%)
if we replace last week with usual 40% drop then Joker only made 50m. Then this week drop will look normal (40%) as usual as we have seen in it's run.
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1 minute ago, nghtvsn said:
Doesn't matter now. It can have all the big drops it wants now. It's crossing a billion. Probably the most unexpected billion since AIW.
Of course, we already know it will get billion since 2 weeks ago but for me it's matter because I want it to get as much as it can. Also hopefully break more record in some countries. Why would I settle I settle for 1 billion when I can see its chance for at least close to 1.1 billion.
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So, Today Joker drop 41.3% from last week in Japan. This drop and with Terminator release this weekend really make skeptical about its chance to reach >47m. I think it will get 45m but not much after that. In Brazil and Italy, weekdays also seems like pointing to 50% drop. In France, we will get confirmation in few hours but even if it gets 55% drop. We shouldn't be too surprise because last week school holidays. The only good news from weekdays that we can confirm is in Argentina at least still dropping in 38% and Germany estimate in 43%.
For weekdays number I think it depend on how good UK and rest of Europe hold. Hopefully cinema friendly weather in Europe will help in weekend. Anything over 50% drop this week (Mon-Sun) will be good enough for me.
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Top 5 of the year so far
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On 11/4/2019 at 5:21 PM, peludo said:
Talking about Joker, being an inflated weekend, it is hard to compare to other 5th weekends, but I just have Avatar (€4.3m) and Ocho apellidos vascos (€4.1m) over Joker's €2.3m.
As a close case, The Impossible did a €2.2m 5th weekend, and after that, it did another €6m.
Other example, A monster calls did a €1.37m 5th weekend and it did other €3m after that. So, with normal drops, Joker should make at least another 5 million, reaching €29m, and matching Endgame. But I prefer to see next weekend drop and see how it normalizes.
Is he reliable ? he post this current top 10 total after the weekend.
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Seems like in Finland it will pass Avengers Endgame in 2 weeks for #1 all time SH in there. Already with 314.6k admission. Coming off 34% WE drop.
In Netherland, Joker coming with 711k this weekend and 29% drop. So far it has made €9.2m. This week it will pass Aladdin with 9.7m and Infinity War with 9.3m to become #2 biggest SH in there.
In Norway, this weekend it increase 15% and made 29.764 admission. With 385.7k admission, third biggest this year behind AEG and TLK.
https://www.insidekino.de/BO/FIN2019.htm
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16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
I must agree that joker wasn't marketed as SH films but entire world know it is from DC brand, proving just how popular Joker is as an DC icon.
BR certainly downtone its LGBT element in the marketing but why??? Because everyone in the film industry know how hard to sell LGBT product. Back to joker, no matter how dangerous, how unconventional the trailers are, people still come in force with 250m opening worldwide, proving just how much its SH genre connection protect the film from all the adverse factor.
That 250m opening mostly OS number isnt just because from SH genre connection though. Also because WOM from people too. Just look at how Golden Lion win affect Italy in it's OW. Also how it's tracking for OW in Spain, UK, Mexico and Russia.
For example
-Spain tracking for € 3-3.5m because it's lower than SM FFH but predicted to have much stronger walk in, result in €4.4m
-UK first time it predicted £8-10m, then become £12.8m.
-Russia also predict es for $8.8m then become $10.6m OW
- Also Mexico with 7-8m then become 13.3m
It's trailer also only help, just look at how many people say how good it's trailer. Especially the first one.
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7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
Can joker retain its 1m daily gross til next Tuesday / Wednesday? If so, Joker will have 40 consecutive days of 1m gross,
Next monday is veteran day , drop should be minimal. Gravity had 37% weekly up on Veteran Day while ASIB got 20% bump last year.
It only need to get 85% of it's Monday, if that estimate hold up. Since it's OW, Joker on Wednesday always been 89% of Monday or higher except that Columbus day on Monday.
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6 minutes ago, a2k said:
Is on 637.7 after a 38.8 weekend. So 87.3 or 2.25x the weekend needed. Even if legs don't continue to trend the way they have, 2.25x more seems safe.
Yup, I just calculate if it make 32m this week, then it will make 50m after that. So I hope it can make 33.5 (47.5% drop) for additional 54 to have same number.
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2 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:
Some projections are having it hit $1.1 billion - that's without the talk of award-season-expansion ~
1.1b for me is kind of unrealistic. Next Mon-Sun probably 32m. Then will add 50m after that. So let's say 82m and Dom with additional 40m. So 1.059b. Still 41m from there. With expansion then it maybe can get there.
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Back to Joker box office. Today in Japan, Joker experienced it's worst drop so far. Dropping 39% from last week Tuesday, I only hope it's deflated because yesterday is holiday in there and drop in 30-35% area tomorrow but if it's continuing with that then 45-46m become likely finish or maybe a bit lesser.
A bit good news is in Argentina, it's still dropping in 43%. So still good on par like last week and on Argentina like last few weeks. It's always dropping much better in weekend.
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1 minute ago, john2000 said:
oops
ps the warning still stands though :d
Ahh ok 👌 let's just leave whatever happen on Twitter on there. Let's be peaceful with each other fan base. There are obviously worst kind of people on both side.
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4 minutes ago, john2000 said:
warning, never go to twitter , when the box office for joker comes, dc fuckboys will wait for you
wrong thread ?
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13 minutes ago, a2k said:
even after the ow was thinking 575-625 ww and expected mediocre legs.
725+ os and 325+ dom look well set.
While 335m Dom seems reachable but somehow I still doubt that 725m. Today Japan number doesn't instill any confidence. Just hope Europe won't follow with 55-60% drop this weekend. For me if Joker can drop anything below 50% or any number above 32m for ( Mon-Sun). It's already a win for me.
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Right, it's funny that when it's release how many predict 1 billion for this. Even look at that Joker > 300m club, Joker above 1b club or just first page of this OS thread. Look at how much everyone predict. Now some people use that "it's expected because Joker is one of the most popular and iconic character" card. Just accept that it's run is crazy and this has probably best WOM for solo SH that OS-China market ever experienced. Just look at how high audience rating in Europe, Latin America and Japan movie site.
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More than Japan, I wonder if it can get at least 3/4 of Frozen SK gross, because back then more than Japan it was so surprising that it break Kungfu Panda record and then nearly double it gross. As for Japan I think at least we can expect 100m. If its song also become quite a hit and they like the film. Maybe 150m. I just don't see that 250m will be replicated again, there will be no Golden Week to help it late legs too.
Such a shame that currency is much worse than late 2013/early2014, but i think it still can get 35 in Brazil and at least 50 in Mexico. So increase in Southeast Asia, decrease in East Asia, same or decrease a bit in Europe and increase in Latin America.
My prediction 750 OS and 530m Dom
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Switzerland
Joker got 52.129 (-5% from LW) admission from last weekend to take it's total to 386.130. Need 108k more to reach Avengers Endgame, but probably with steep drop expected next weekend across Europe will make it improbable to reach that.
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I think from these current numbers, if i had to pick the most impressive one to least impressive one from 11 biggest OS markets ( can change depend late legs) :
1. Spain
- So close with Italy but maybe because its more possible to become highest grossing SH movie here
2. Italy
- No need to said anything about this, with bigger OW than Spain but a bit worse legs. Until last 2 weeks probably Italy is #1 but Spain drops is very consistent in 30-35% range that make really hard to overlook.
3. Japan
- becomes DC biggest movie by far, will double Batman '89 total and no need even to say about the gap with DCEU counterparts, it's so far that if you combine last 4 DCEU release in Japan. Still not reaching Joker total in there.
4. UK
- will become biggest solo SH movie in there surpassing TDKR record in 2012 but because SH movie always thrive here, so i just put that below Japan.
5. Mexico
- same like UK but in Mexico its already biggest solo SH movie. Also surpass Avengers (2012) like in UK but because i think TDKR record in UK is harder to achieve than Civil War in Mexico. Hard choice.
6. France
- Surprising maybe because in Brazil its possible to pass CM as highest grossing solo SH movies in there, but here in France that record difference is nearly 1.5x next DC or Marvel movies. Spiderman 3 with 6.4m to TDKR 4.4m and Iron Man 4.3m admission. So the fact that Joker will finish probably in 6m area is astonishing.
7. Brazil
- Have a great chance to become highest grossing OS SH movie. Really impressive considering its OW and will have 5x multiplier in there.
8. Germany
- Great performance considering most solo Superhero movies make. around 15-25m here. The fact that Joker can reach 40m and will pass TDKR is really surprising. It also will end as #3 most watched solo SH movies in there just behind Spiderman 1 and Superman '78.
9. SK
- Same like Russia become highest grossing DC movies in there but the fact this surpass Aquaman that inflated with many holidays make me put this in #9.
10. Russia
- Already highest grossing DC movie in there and have a really good drop in first 2 week. The fact that this only #10, speaks how impressive those 9 markets above,
11. Australia
-Actually in last few weeks has a very good drop but still its OW and total is what we expect from normal SH movie box office run.
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4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Unless Gitesh made a typo these are official numbers from the studio. The studio ER’s tend to be different depending on how they hedge with futures. There was a post from @RthTIFF on this.
Yup, i forgot they must use different ER. Thanks
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Update OS gross
That France number, probably a mistake.
Joker weekdays should be 2.2m and weekend with 5.4m. Current total 35.7m.
With that 36.8m so weekend would be 6.5m.
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9 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:
Hey friend ..
here is the link :- http://flix.gr/news/box-office-311019.html
2nd thing #Joker might not surpass Troy or Avatar .. 45% drop as compared to LW ..
At least its already highest grossing SH movies in there and will be hard to break that. That's good performance all around 👍
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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Joker grossed $38.8M internationally this weekend. International total stands at $637.7M, global total stands at $936.9M.#JokerMovie #Joker #BoxOffice @wbpictures @jokermovie— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) November 4, 2019Just as expected
It's weekdays also increase. Yesterday 23m estimate, now 24.8m. Let's hope for 45% drop week and more surprise like this week.
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6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
i think it passes EG in Portugal already.
Yup I know, I already post that 4 hours ago with Japan update. I think Joker can get into $5m at least in there.
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To show you how good Joker perform in Europe, I try to calculate all Marvel and DC solo movies performance in 6 biggest Europe markets ( UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Russia) because there isn't complete data in Mojo for all Europe countries. So here is the result. It's also unintentionally at the same time it surpass SM3 in $ :
1. Joker 219.1m
250-260m projection total.
2. Spider-Man 3 218.1m
3. The Dark Knight Rises 214m
4. Iron Man 3 203.1m
5. The Dark Knight 185.1m
6. Spider-Man 2 166.4m
7. Black Panther 165.0m
8. Spider-Man 1 156.9m
9. Guardian of Galaxy 2 154.2m
10. Deadpool 152.8m
11. Captain Marvel 149.6m
12. Guardian of Galaxy 146.5m
13. Spider-Man FFH 144.1m
14. Captain America CW 139.9m
15. Suicide Squad 134.1m
16. Deadpool 2 133.6m
17. Aquaman 131.8m
18. Thor : The Dark World 130.2m
19. Batman v Superman 129.8m
20. Thor Ragnarok 125.9m
Avengers Endgame 354.3m
Avengers Infinity War 271.9m
The Avengers 237.9m
Avengers Age of Ultron 208.6m
With this number Joker is possibly the only solo movie that has cross 300m in Europe and with possible 360-400m total just in Europe.
P.S : Sorry for a long post
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JOKER OS THREAD // 738.5M OS // 1.074B WW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by RJ 95
While maybe it drop over 50% this week. It really should break 1b next week. After this weekend alone it will reach 980m. How come you guys make a scenario that next week it will get below 20m ?
Even OS alone next week probably already add 17-18m.