RJ 95
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Posts posted by RJ 95
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16 minutes ago, a2k said:
30+ weekend incoming.
7.25
4.35 (-40%)
3.9 (-10%)
9.0 (+130%)
12.5 (+39%)
8.5 (-32%)
= 30.0
If it follow presale to drop like keysersoze said 33% from presale last Tuesday to 50% of last Tuesday gross.
Then maybe it will follow in Wednesday cause keysersoze said it was 50% presale of last Thursday then it will become 62.5% of last Thursday gross. Assuming same percentage 4/3.
Only 28.5% drop though from Tuesday so a bit unrealistic.
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4 minutes ago, Nero said:
What about Deadpool?
nvm already answered
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1 minute ago, Parasite said:
Ok.. So Joker PS are down 65% from last week.
BUT don't pull the trigger alarm so quickly.
There's very few data on holdover PS.
TLK dropped around 80% in PS, but still managed a stellar 30% second weekend hold.
TLK Week 2 comp : 1 150 000 admissions (-32% inc. previews/-29% off a likely 1,7 (82k previews) OWeek)
TLK Week 3 comp : 1 469 000 (-11%/-9%)
Besides, neither of these TLK weeks losed PLF like Joker does to Maleficient, and the MTC (Pathé Gaumont) here has exclusivity to IMAX, 4DX, Screen X,...
Last week's walk-ups were deflated by a technical problem on Saturday, unableling most Pathé theaters to sell any ticket, while this week has the beginning of the school break.
Overall, I'd say Joker is headed to 1,3-1,5 second weekend, for a stellar - 10/-20 % hold.
Maleficient is performing as expected, towards a likely 60-70 OD. La Vérité ! (...) is bombing horrifically, and will be incredibly lucky to hit 1M total.
Everything below is awful.
Nice, it will be incredible if it manages to do that.
So after the weekend it have chance at least to hit 3m admission if it goes well ?
Also the weekend in France counts from wednesday-sunday ?
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Tuesday
Joker - € 630.260 ( +12% over Monday ) , excellent increase same like last week. Hope it have same pattern like last week.
Total € 16.760.977
Gemini Boy - € 88.297
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2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
Just had a quick look at the ol' home country. Romania's showing a drop of less than 17%. Almost 1.2 million USD.
For reference, some of the biggest superhero movies ever, as well as some of this year's biggest:
Aquaman ~ 3.9 million
Endgame ~ 3.4 million
Infinity War ~ 2.6 million
Venom ~ 2.5 million
Hobbs & Shaw ~ 2.3 million
Suicide Squad ~ 2.1 million
Thor Ragnarok ~ 2.1 million
Black Panther ~ 2 million
The Lion King ~ 1.9 million
Deadpool 2 ~ 1.8 million
Deadpool ~1.8 million
BvS ~ 1.6 million
Justice League ~ 1.5 million
Far From Home ~ 1.35 million
Aladdin ~1.2 million
Homecoming ~ 1.05 million
Wonder Woman ~ 1.05 million
So, unless it completely starts falling off a cliff, should get the 2nd biggest DC gross.
So Romania is the only market where DC superhero movie is the #1 of all time in that genre ?
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Monday
Joker 44.57 rub (- 49.4% drop from last week)
Better hold than Venom (57% drop ) last year
Total 1443.54 rub , around $ 22.4m
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Japan - Tuesday
Joker $ 851.000 - 21% drop from last week
Good hold
Using reported Joker number that WB publish, last week seems like avg price ticket is higher than first weekend.
Anyway good hold, hope it can carry out into weekend.
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13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Really early. But AMC data till now seem to be inline with Charlie is saying. I did not track cinemark last monday but it seems about 10-15% below last wednesday at the same point. I will confirm late tonight if the trends still hold.
For tomorrow I see fewer shows at both the chains(somewhere in 8-10%). So the two holidays today will have bigger impact than discount tuesday. But we should hopefully get better week on week drop info tomorrow. Though I am expecting this friday increase to be much better than last week and so should not worry if we get not so great week on week drops.
How is today presale looks like ? Can it get 10-15% drop from monday ?
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Overseas number for this movie really depend on how legs develop in Europe. With other superhero movie, Europe maybe only take 20-30 % of oversea grosses but with this movie nearly 60% of them come from Europe. Last 2 days hold in SK and Japan seems good.
So if weekly drop in Europe change from 30-40% to > 45%. It will have massive difference.
Still it will get 550m overseas even with 45% drop.
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8 minutes ago, Omni said:
Ooops fixed
Yeah this number for the Joker is a little alarming. Though not too much, as it's something similar to what happened to Inside Out, and to other movies as well. Inside Out for example was down 5% over the weekend and then 27% Mon-to-Mon. One could say Joker's retention is much worse, but it's also true that Inside Out's first dailies, while stronger than usual for an animated movie, were far as sensational as Joker's: a little less than an 80% drop for the former, a 50% drop for the latter.
As long as the movie increases 10%+ both today and tomorrow and remains above 450K on Thursday, it's completely fine.
Yep , hopefully it can still increase 10% tomorrow to finish at least > $ 25m.
I just worry that when even Italy who embrace this movie the most drop 38% from last Monday. Maybe other European countries will start drop > 40% . Hopefully still in 30-40% range to keep billion dream alive.
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4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Italy looks promising and it would be extremely impressive to beat Endgame in an established markets.
With Monday drop, chance is very small. Still it would get 25-28 maybe
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8 minutes ago, grim22 said:
Running some back of the envelope numbers, I think this gets to 890M. Anything beyond that will need both great legs as well as pure luck including things like awards recognition, a couple of expansions and Terminator not doing particularly well.
Same, for me when I try to use OS number and with avg drop around 40-45%, it will get 597 million overseas.
I don't calculate for domestic but I assume it will get into at least 325
So for me at least 325 + 597 = 922 million
The thing is when I predict overseas number , I always off by 10 percent each midweek or weekend, so yeah with market like Germany and France we still don't know how good week to week drop it will get.
At least 900 million is almost locked barring >45% drop in Europe.
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Monday
Joker € 563.023 ( -38 %) from last week, also 71.1% drop from Sunday
Hmm....
Hopefully it can still land in $ 25-28m
Gemini Boy € 83.366
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Good chance for Joker to become highest grossing solo superhero movie in Europe ?
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Also this weekend in Netherland, with just 11% weekend drop !!
With € 4.67m total right now
Seems like it average below 15% drop for whole Europe
http://www.insidekino.de/BO/NL2019.htm
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6 hours ago, Parasite said:
1 357 118 admissions OW for Joker it seems!
Next week opens : Maleficient 2, La vérité si je mens ! Les débuts, Hustlers (renamed Queens here), Fahim, Angry Birds 2, Matthias & Maxime, Shaun the sheep 2.
Joker should retain #1, followed very closely by LVSJM! LD whose predecessor opened with 1,9M. This one has muted buzz and so-so response. It should still open around 1M.
Maleficient opened with 627k back in 2014. A Mary Poppins Returns-like (389k) performance feels about right here.
Fourth place should go to Matthias & Maxime, Xavier Dolan's latest. Even The life and death of John F. Donovan opened close to 200k.
AB2 and Shaun should battle for #5 while Queens/Hustlers likely will be a non factor.
In cine-director it said Joker already made 1.620.000 adm from 9-15 October.
So 263k ( € 2m ) admission Monday-Tuesday
Ahh it's estimate sorry....
Impressive though if in actual it can make that much from monday to tuesday
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Weekend Actual
£ 9.7m (-22%)
Total £ 30m, same like what WB reported yesterday
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5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:Oct 14, 2019
Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross
(Total)Admissions
(Total)Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 
Joker
U.S.
Oct 02, 2019 $608,124
($28,859,091)87,475
(3,934,920)1,199 42.35% 2 
South Korea
Oct 02, 2019 $423,343
($15,162,468)61,416
(2,108,285)970 29.48% 3 
South Korea
Oct 02, 2019 $162,940
($7,444,156)23,926
(1,057,488)664 11.34% 4 
Gemini Man
U.S.
Oct 09, 2019 $114,235
($2,324,482)16,689
(318,825)665 7.95% 5 
South Korea
Sep 11, 2019 $17,754
($33,336,208)4,134
(4,567,530)51 1.23% 6 
South Korea
Sep 25, 2019 $17,129
($7,449,518)2,800
(1,113,268)270 1.19% 7 
Weathering With You
Japan
Oct 30, 2019 $15,661
($31,782)2,223
(4,222)7 1.09% 8 
South Korea
Oct 23, 2019 $12,040
($14,747)1,586
(1,987)5 0.83% 9 
South Korea
Oct 09, 2019 $6,948
($122,955)1,059
(17,886)242 0.48% 10 
South Korea
Oct 17, 2019 $4,316
($28,212)731
(4,348)4 0.3% 44% drop for Joker from last week. the breakout mode doesn't seem to happen here in SK but the film still holds noticeably well compared to its SH genre norm .
From this should be enough to reach 35m but yeah that's it. For DC standard still a very good result.
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Just now, Valonqar said:
If typhoon is the reason for so-so hold than it'll make up when it's over. I remember when AoU didn't open over 200M and people said it was the fight and it would make up after the fight but it didn't cause the fight wasn't the real reason. So fingers crossed typhoon is indeed the reason and not that it exhausted interest in Japan.
I mean Corpse himself said that in Saturday that 90% theater closed that day.
Also in last Sunday, Joker immediately triple it's Saturday number and recover nicely to that $ 3.5m weekend that WB reported.
It's Sunday number just 40% drop from last weekend. Also today it just gross same number like it's first Sunday.
Either way it's already $18m with today number and with 2 incoming holiday. Surely it can reach 30m. Good run all around.
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Yup not as good as we hope for but still good enough for it to have same admission like in first Sunday.
Around 2.4-2.7 million today in Japan depend by tix prices average and market share.
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24 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
241 approx till Thursday.
FSS 110mn approx. If estimates hold.
I will break it in approx numbers as;
25
32 F
50 S
45 Sat
22 M
22 T
22 Wed
23 Thu
27 Fri
45 Sat
38 Sun
This is doable scenario then for this week if it keep that pattern
19 M
16 T
14 W
12 T
16 Fri
27 Sat
22 Sun
61 + 65 + 351.2 = 477.2 total after WE 3
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Also lost in $ 123.7 million OS weekend, I just realize that Joker actually surpass midweek number that Screendaily reported ( 70m ).
It's actually $ 75.3m . Whoa.
With Germany and France, also with holiday in Japan that will boost 1.5m.
Good chance it can get 50m+ midweek
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Just now, teard1972 said:
Japanese twitter reactions to Joker are mostly overwhelmingly positive; the film really resonates with the JP sub cultural scenes...
Yep, after this Monday it's already $18-18,5m in there. Hopefully at least it can reach $ 30m.
There is also another holiday right in 22 October, it will get another boost for it's box office.
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Another good news for Joker is today in Japan because of holiday and if it's not drop horribly at evening business. It will get It's biggest day so far in it's run.
Bigger than first Sunday and Saturday.
Around $ 2.75 - 3 million.
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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
Posted
So base from this 3m Monday then, higher than I expect 2.7m. It confirm ticket price higher than first week. It's hold this week is crazy too. Tuesday just 20%, Wed just drop 24%. Possibly it can get 2.5m weekend if maleficent not hitting hard also with 26m at Sunday. 40m is not that far fetch.