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El Squibbonator

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  1. I'm kind of struggling to find a good comparison among existing Disney and Pixar movies to Lightyear's performance. The best ones I can think of at the moment are Brave and Cars 2.

    Brave and Cars 2 were both Pixar movies that suffered from poor word of mouth and a general perception that they were lesser efforts from the studio. They both earned around $25 million in their respective first days, while Lightyear has earned $21 million in the same amount of time. Both Brave and Cars 2, moreover, opened at around $66-68 million. A comparable opening for Lightyear would then give us an opening of about $56 million.

    Other Pixar movies have had similar openings, but they were kept afloat by strong overseas grosses (Coco, Ratatouille), or good reception. Lightyear doesn't have either of those factors working in its favor. Taking the Brave/Cars 2 comparison further, we might be looking at a domestic gross of around $180 million for Lightyear.

    The overseas gross is harder to predict, but it'll probably be quite a bit less than what Brave made, especially considering the lack of a Chinese release. In the absence of any proper data, and in the interest of speculating (Oh my god! An unsupported guess! The horror!), I took the liberty of hypothesizing it'll be about 75% of Brave's overseas gross, using the probable domestic opening as a rough guide. If that's the case, Lightyear's final worldwide gross might be more than $400 million.

    But not a whole lot more.

  2. I know it's dangerous to calculate how a movie will do once it's been released, but I feel like living dangerously. But let's start with what we know for a fact. 

     

    Lightyear has earned $23 million domestically on its first full day. That's less than half of what Toy Story 4 (the last Pixar movie to have a full theatrical release before the pandemic) made in the same amount of time, but it's still more than twice what Onward and The Good Dinosaur made. Both Onward and The Good Dinosaur finished their domestic opening weekends at slightly under $40 million. If we assume Lightyear plays like that, instead of like a typical Toy Story movie, then that $23 million first day might translate to roughly $65 million. 

    I think a particularly good comparison to make in this case might actually be Brave. Like Lightyear, Brave was a Pixar movie that received good-but-not-great reviews, and opened in the $60 million range. Brave earned $237 million domestically, and I think it's reasonable to expect something similar, if not slightly higher, from Lightyear (unlike Brave, Lightyear will have the advantage of being more attractive to young boys). $250 million domestic seems reasonable. 

    The big question is what role international grosses will play. Lightyear has been banned in 14 countries, and China has claimed they won't be showing it either. But most of the countries that have banned it aren't typically major contributors to the overseas grosses of Pixar movies. Neither, for that matter, is China; while Walt Disney Animation Studios movies often do very well in China, Pixar tends to struggle there. Coco, in 2017, was the only real exception, earning more money in China than it did domestically. Returning to our comparison to Brave for a moment, that movie made $28 million in China, out of a $540 million global total. 

     

    Taking that as a baseline, I think $450-$500 million worldwide isn't an unrealistic expectation for Lightyear. That would put it in about the same territory as WALL-E and Brave. 

  3. My feelings for this movie could probably best be described as "very cautiously optimistic." When I saw the first teaser for Raya and the Last Dragon, I was really excited, because it looked like a movie that was decidedly outside Disney's wheelhouse. Having watched the actual movie, of course, I now know that wasn't the case.

     

    I want to look forward to Strange World, since there's so much stuff in that teaser I like— the creature designs, the gorgeous animation, the way the characters look— but in the back of my mind I feel like the end result is going to be a lot more generic and boilerplate than what the teaser is promising. But maybe not.

     

    This is a problem I've had with a lot of recent Disney Animation movies, and to a lesser extent some Pixar movies as well. They have beautifully, wildly imaginative settings, and they squander them with bog-standard plots. Raya and the Last Dragon (which, somewhat ominously, is by the same director as this movie) is by far the worst offender, but Zootopia, Moana, The Good Dinosaur, Onward, and even Encanto have this issue too.

     

    Not all of them have this on the same level, of course, but if you've watched Disney for as long as I have it's definitely noticeable. It feels like Disney has a few "stock" movie plots it keeps shuffling and re-dealing, and it relies on visually spectacular settings to keep them looking new.

    • Like 3
  4. Sorry if this is a rather random topic, but it's something I'm curious about. Should I be trusting Slashfilm as a source of information on movie budgets and the like, seeing as they never cite their sources on the matter? For example, this article claims that The Bob's Burgers Movie cost $60 million. The only other place I've seen that figure mentioned was on Filmik, a site known for its lack of integrity and reliability.
    So if Slashfilm is propagating information that may or may not be true, possibly taken from sites with poor reliability records, how reliable can we consider Slashfilm? I understand it's a very popular site for movie news, but should we be taking anything it says with a grain of salt? 
  5. lXveYi8.png

     

    Based On: TV series of the same name

    Studio: The Workshop, Inc.  

    Director: John M. Carrigan*

    Genre: Animation/Fantasy/Children's

    Release Date: August 1st, Y9
    Theater Count: 3104

    Rating: PG (fantasy violence)

    Format: CGI Animation

    Budget: $45 million

    Runtime: 117 minutes (1 hour and 57 minutes)

     

    Major Cast: 

    Clarissa May Jones* as Sarah Spencer

    Brock Armstrong* as Ryan Spencer

    Hayden Moss* as David, Bonehead

    Jacob Harris* as Paul

    John C. Reilly as Allo

    Ed Vincent* as Stego, Ankylo

    Laura Mallon* as Teryx

    James N. Midas* as Stego

    Garth Shoemaker* as The Dinosorcerer

    Frank Welker as Genghis Rex

    Alan Tudyk as The Lord of Dinopolis 

    Benedict Wong as General Tarbo

     

    Summary:

    Spoiler

    The movie opens at a summer camp in Montana, where four middle schoolers-- Sarah, her twin brother Ryan, and their friends Paul and David-- are attending a lecture about dinosaurs at a dig site. Sarah, David, and Paul find the lecture fascinating, but Ryan considers it boring and wishes he could actually get to look for fossils. While the guest speaker is distracted, he goads the other three into investigating the fossil dig. Sarah and Paul both object, but Ryan calls them "chicken" for refusing and they reluctantly agree. Shortly after starting their search, they stumble-- quite literally stumble, as in trip over-- upon what looks like a stone sundial. Sarah wants to show it to the camp counselor, but Ryan insists on taking it for himself. As soon as Ryan picks it up, the device begins to glow, and all four of them black out.

     

    When they open their eyes again, they aren't at camp anymore. They're in a bizarre city with skyscrapers covered in plants, and strange dinosaur-shaped vehicles flying through the air. Paul tries to pull up the internet on his phone, but it doesn't work. Before they can do anything else, they find themselves surrounded by a group of anthropomorphic dinosaurs-- the Dinosaucers. Allo, the leader and an Allosaurus, accuses them of being spies for "the enemy", but Sarah and David protest that they know nothing about any sort of dinosaur war. Paul is simply giddy with excitement at the idea of seeing live, talking dinosaurs, and begins taking photos on his phone. Ryan, however, is skeptical, both of the idea that what they're experiencing is real and that the Dinosaucers can be trusted. 

     

    Allo explains that he and the Dinosaucers-- Teryx, Bonehead, Stego, Tricero, Dimetro, Icthy, and Bronto Thunder-- are a resistance movement against the evil Tyranno Empire, rulers of the planet Reptilon. Ryan angrily asks how he and the other campers were brought to Reptilon, and Teryx says that only the Lord of Dinopolis knows that. Sarah asks why they don't just find him, and Allo says that they're trying to, but no one has seen the Lord of Dinopolis in decades. The campers promise to help the Dinosaucers find the Lord of Dinopolis, in exchange for a chance to return home. 

     

    Shortly afterwards, they take off in the Dinosaucer's ship-- the RSS Stegosaur-- to search for the Dinosorcerer, only to be attacked and boarded by a Tyranno ship. A battle between the Dinosaucers and the Tyrannos ensues, and Allo is wounded by a laser blast. Genghis Rex, the Tyranno leader, demands that the Dinosaucers tell him where the Lord of Dinopolis is, as the Tyrannos are also looking for him, but Sarah tells him that they don't know either. This enrages Rex, who shoots Dimetro, the Dinosaucers' Dimetrodon pilot, with a laser gun, injuring him. The Stegosaur enters a steep dive, and the crew of dinosaurs and humans desperately try to prevent it from crashing. Rex declares that if the Dinosaucers do not tell him where the Lord of Dinopolis lives, he will kill them all. Despite Tricero cautioning that Rex will never keep his word, Ryan approaches Rex and tells him he is willing to help him find Dinopolis The others are shocked at Ryan's apparent betrayal, none more so than his sister Sarah, who blames him for trapping them in Reptilon in the first place. As the Tyrannos leave with Ryan, the Dinosaucers are trapped in their crippled ship, but manage to make it to an escape pod before the ship crashes. 

     

    Meanwhile, aboard the Tyranno's ship, the Tyranno scientist Plesio (a Plesiosaurus) fits Ryan with an electric collar that will give him a shock if he tries to escape. Ryan asks why they are doing this, and Brachio, Rex's Brachiosaurus thug, tells him that "we can't have any filthy mammals running loose. You might be useful, but you're not our friend." Genghis Rex asks Ryan how he knows where the Dinosorcerer is, and Ryan shows him the stone sundial. Rex is impressed, and activates the stone, which reveals a holographic map to the ancient city of Dinopolis. 

     

    By sheer coincidence, the Dinosaucers, upon leaving their crashed escape pod, find themselves attacked by General Tarbo. He is the Lord of Dinopolis's Tarbosaurus military commander, and  is accompanied by his Velociraptor foot soldiers (whose feathers look like samurai armor). While Allo protests that they merely wish to see the Lord of Dinopolis, General Tarbo doesn't believe them, and takes them to the palace to stand trial. We see Dinopolis for the first time; it consists of elaborate East Asian-style architecture with towering pagodas.  The Dinosaucers are brought to a massive golden castle, flanked by dinosaur statues and raptor guards. The campers wonder what kind of dinosaur the Lord of Dinopolis is, but the answer soon reveals itself when the door to the throne room opens, and the Lord of Dinopolis reveals himself to be, not a T. rex or a Brachiosaurus as Paul and Sarah respectively suggest, but a tiny three-foot tall Protoceratops wearing a jeweled crown and holding a large staff. 

     

    Allo pleads with the Lord of Dinopolis to give them another chance, and to help their human friends get home, but the Protoceratops grins wickedly and announces that he's already received "a better offer." This "better offer", it turns out, is from the Tyrannos, who have already arrived at the palace and delivered the stone sundial to the Lord of Dinopolis. Accompanying them is Ryan, who is not shocked to see his fellow campers. 

     

    With the Tyrannos on his side, Dinopolis's forces easily overwhelm the Dinosaucers. The Dinosaucers retreat, and David asks Tricero if he knows anything about the history of the sundial that might give them an edge in defeating the Tyrannos. Tricero is hesitant, but tells him that long before the Lord of Dinopolis built his palace, the same area was said to be home to "The Dinosorcerer", the sundial's original creator. Armed with this information, they venture underground in search of clues. 

     

    Deep in the caverns beneath Dinopolis, the heroes stumble upon an old leather-bound book, titled the "Great Book of Reptilonian Wisdom". Despite Allo's warnings, Sarah opens the book, and this causes the spirit of the Dinosorcerer-- an elderly Therizinosaurus-- to appear. The Dinosorcerer explains that he created the magic sundial as a means of peaceful travel between worlds, but he saw a terrible vision that it would be used for evil. However, he also had another vision that four heroes would arrive to save Reptilon from that evil. Paul asks how there can be four heroes, now that Ryan has betrayed them, but the Dinosorcerer's spirit vanishes. 

     

    The Tyrannos ambush the heroes as they attempt to escape through an underground tunnel, and Stego demands to know what the Lord of Dinopolis wants with the sundial. He explains that his true goal is to create a new homeland for dinosaurs. A world where dinosaurs are extinct, as he sees it, would be ripe for colonizing, and the Tyrannos have agreed to help him. Ryan is incredulous, and demands to know why Rex never told him this. Rex snaps at Ryan for disrespecting him, and Ryan angrily states he no longer wants to be on the side of the Tyrannos. General Tarbo, too, is shocked-- he has spent his entire life serving the Lord of Dinopolis, and feels betrayed by his ruler. He defects to the Dinosaucers along with Ryan, only for the Lord of Dinopolis to order the Tyrannos to attack. 

     

    With Tarbo aiding them, the Dinosaucers fight back against the Tyrannos, and Allo manages to overpower Genghis Rex in a one-on-one fight. Rex drops the stone sundial, and Ryan picks it up, revealing to the Lord of Dinopolis that he is the fourth hero from the propecy. The Lord of Dinopolis is astonished, and orders his raptor bodyguards to attack them, but they refuse, now that they have sided with the Tarbo and the Dinosaucers. The Lord of Dinopolis surrenders, and the outmatched Tyrannos are forced to stand down. 

     

    The Lord of Dinopolis asks if they forgive him, and Allo pauses for a moment. He says that the Lord of Dinopolis will need to be punished for his crimes, and while he may personally forgive him, the populace of Reptilon probably never will. Ryan also asks his friends if they forgive him, and Paul says he does, since he understands how desperate he must have felt. The campers prepare to activate the stone sundial and return home, but Allo cautions them that they can now never return to Reptilon. The sundial must be destroyed, since its potential for abuse is too great even in well-meaning hands. The campers-- now dubbed "Secret Scouts of Reptilon" for their efforts in defeating the Tyrannos-- give a final farewell to their friends. There is a blinding flash of light from the sundial, and the screen goes black.

     

    The campers find themselves back at camp, at the exact same moment they left. The sundial, however, is gone. Ryan wonders what they're doing so far from the lecture, and wants to get back, because "dinosaurs are cool!" The other three question his change of attitude towards dinosaurs, but follow him back to camp. As they return, the camera lingers on the Secret Scout badges they were given by Allo. 

     

    In a post-credits scene, a shadowed dinosaur is shown reading about Genghis Rex's fate on a computer and laughing to herself. She then turns around, revealing herself to be Princess Dei, a Deinonychus who is Rex's long-time rival. 

     

     

    • Like 2
  6. So it now as though Bob's Burgers is set to reach the $15M mark on its domestic opening weekend. If its budget is similar to that of Beavis and Butt-Head Do America or South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut (that is, roughly $20M), then that actually isn't too bad an opening. 

  7. 2 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

    I've heard from some that have already seen it spoilers may actually be a big deal for this movie.

    I can confirm it's because of spoilers. Someone leaked the movie's plot on Reddit, and thousands if not millions of people saw it before it was taken down. How do I know this? Because I was one of the people who saw the leak. And no, I won't say what was in it. 

  8. Regardless of how popular Bob's Burgers itself is, I feel I have good reason to be skeptical of Filmik's statement that the movie's budget was $60 million. More significantly, if we assume the budget is indeed closer to $20 million, then a $10-12 million opening weekend might not be as bad as we've been making it out to be. 

  9. I found out something that could change things regarding the way we evaluate this movie. To elaborate, it's come to my attention that the $60 million figure for the budget of The Bob's Burgers Movie DOES NOT COME FROM A RELIABLE SOURCE. It was taken from a website called Filmik, which has a history of making such statements about movie budgets with no official information to back them up. While I obviously can't speak for what the movie's actual budget is, the fact remains that we should not be taking the statement that it cost $60 million as fact. 

     

    As for what it did cost, I obviously can't give an authoritative answer. However, I do think I can make an educated guess. Instead of comparing it to The Simpsons Movie, we might be better served comparing it to Beavis and Butt-Head Do America or South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut. Both of these movies cost roughly $20 million, which is about a third of what The Simpsons Movie cost.

     

    Compared to The Simpsons, which is a globally-beloved show watched by both adults and children, South Park and Beavis and Butt-Head have narrower target audiences and are less popular outside the United States. Bob's Burgers is vaguely comparable in that respect. Consider, too, that even in their prime, South Park and Beavis and Butt-Head were nowhere near the cornerstones of pop culture that The Simpsons was. Spending $60 million on a movie made sense for The Simpsons, but not really for any other primetime cartoon. 

     

    It would not surprise me, then, if the real budget for The Bob's Burgers Movie is closer to that of South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut than The Simpsons Movie. 

  10. I don't know where else to put this, but I have a bit of a PSA to make. The $60 million budget mentioned for The Bob's Burgers Movie IS FROM AN UNRELIABLE SOURCE. The website it was taken from is called Filmik, and they have a history of putting out information about movies with no sources to back them up, and therefore any data from them cannot be considered reliable. They also declared that the budget of League of Super-Pets was $130 million, again without providing any sources. 

     

    The takeaway is, Filmix is not reliable. They cannot be considered a good source of movie budgets. 

  11. @CAYOMMagazine 

    What do you get when you combine a scheming drug dealer, a horny sea monster, and an incompetent psychiatrist? According to Fossil Record Studios head Mark Pierce, the answer is The Lust Lizard of Melancholy Cove, a raunchy R-rated animated comedy based on the novel of the same name by Christopher Moore. The movie is scheduled for release in the summer of Y10, and represents a break from Fossil Record's typical fare of science-fiction and fantasy dramas. Unlike most other animation studios, Fossil Record has typically shied away from comedy, with the exception of last year's flop Funny Business. 

     

     

    • Like 1
  12. I'm also curious about the upcoming animated adaptation of The Great Gatsby. It's being produced by DNEG Animation and written by William Joyce. Also, Joyce replied to a tweet claiming he hopes the movie gets a theatrical release. That's no guarantee it will, of course, but he clearly has a vested interest in that happening, and it's not being produced directly for a streaming service. It seems like the sort of movie A24 might pick up, for example. 
     

    On the subject of A24, they're also making the stop-motion/live-action hybrid movie Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, which honestly looks adorable. Of course, Marcel seems aimed at a much younger audience than most of what A24 makes, but if they're distributing animated movies now, I'm willing to bet it's only a matter of time before they put a PG-13 or R-rated one out in theaters. Offbeat movies aimed at adult audiences are kind of their thing, after all.

     

    The question is whether they'll do it before a major studio (at this point, almost certainly Sony) does. Either way, I cautiously predict a successful theatrical adult animated drama film within the next decade. 

     

  13. I'm bumping this thread in light of the likely box-office failure of The Bob's Burgers Movie. Now, obviously that movie is a comedy, and hence outside the scope of what I originally made this thread about. However, if audiences aren't turning out for a movie based on Bob's Burgers--a reasonably popular TV show-- that does make it seem a lot less likely that they'll go to a theater for a completely original adult animated movie. 

    • Like 1
  14. Am I alone in thinking Bob's Burgers might overperform relative to the projections we've made? I've been seeing a lot of promotion for it, so I can see it opening closer to $15 million, or even $20 million if word of mouth is especially good. 

     

    Then again, this is coming from the guy who was convinced PAW Patrol: The Movie would flop, so what am I saying? 

  15. Raven Island

     

    Studio: Fossil Record Animation

    Director: Rebecca Daintree

    Genre: Animation, Fantasy, Family

    Release Date: September 19th Y9

    Rating: PG (violence, thematic elements)

    Budget: $20 Million

    Runtime: 2 hr 19 min

    Format: hand-drawn animation

    Theater Count: 2,055

     

    Main Cast:

    Clarissa May Jones* as Jessica Taylor

    Mary Waterstone* as Claire Taylor

    John Wilkins* as Dohra-Kaa

    Stephen Bryce* as The Watcher

    Harry Richard Milhouse* as Corax 

     

    *fictional


    Summary:

    Spoiler

    The story begins at the Seattle Airport, with 16-year-old Jessica Taylor complaining about having to spend the summer with her Aunt Claire, who she hasn't seen in many years and regards as eccentric and strange. As Jessica travels to Claire's house, it is quickly revealed why she considers Claire to be "weird."

     

    Claire lives by herself on an island in Puget Sound, off Seattle, and owns a small seaplane transport service. She also has an extremely close relationship with the ravens that live on her island, leaving food out for them every morning after breakfast. As Jessica sets about exploring Claire's house, she stumbles upon a drawer full of drawings of bizarre-looking creatures. She asks Claire about them, but Claire says nothing. Later that day, she goes out exploring in the nearby forest, and becomes lost. However, she is led back to Claire's house when she follows one of the ravens-- an unusually large one with a patch of gray feathers on its head. 

     

    The next day, Claire takes off for another delivery flight in her plane, but disappears. Panicked, Jessica is about to call the Coast Guard, but before she can, she sees the same raven from before. She follows it, and it leads her to a stone tower at the center of the island.  The moment Jessica touches the tower, she and the raven are transported to an alternate universe known as The Deeps. The raven has shape-shifted into a humanoid form, and speaks to Jessica. He tells her his name is Corax, and that Claire is in danger.

     

    Corax tells Jessica that most mortal humans cannot leave The Deeps, only enter it. Ravens are the only creatures from the material world that can freely move between it and The Deeps. Jessica insists that she still wants to save her aunt, and she doesn't care what the consequences are. Moments later, Jessica and Corax find themselves attacked by a multi-legged serpentine creature resembling one of Claire's drawings. Jessica manages to overpower and defeat it, but Corax chastises her, telling her that she has been deemed a threat by "The Watcher", who is the one holding Claire captive.

     

    Jessica is about to ask who The Watcher is, but Corax silences her. They make their way towards one of The Deep's "cities", which to Jessica feels more like a gathering place for monsters and spirits. As a human, Jessica is a fugitive by her very nature, but Corax insists that this is the only way they have any hope of helping Claire. Jessica and Corax's attempt to blend into the various monsters and spirits in The Deeps is unsuccessful; they are spotted and captured. Corax is imprisoned as a traitor to The Deeps for aiding a human, and Jessica is thrown into an arena of sand-dwelling creatures resembling antlion larvae (again, they bear an uncanny similarity to Claire's drawings). Jessica is able to free herself from the ravenous creatures, picking up a broken wood beam and using it as a weapon. Once she has defeated them, she frees Corax.

     

    Determined to rescue her aunt, Jessica demands Corax help her "defeat" The Watcher, but Corax corrects her. He explains that The Watcher is not evil, but simply experiences morality on a different level than humans do. Nevertheless, he does offer to help her. He directs her to a ferryman--or rather, an operator of a flying ship-- named Dohra-Kaa, who resembles a two-headed serpent. Dohra-Kaa is reluctant to take them, for fear of endangering The Deeps, but is moved by Jessica's devotion to her aunt. The three of them travel to a mountain known as the Heart of the Deeps, where the Watcher is said to live. During the flight, the flying ship is attacked by monstrous airborne creatures sent by The Watcher, which prompt the trio to take evasive action. After a narrow escape, they crash-land at the foot of the mountain. As Jessica and Corax leave the flying ship, Dohra-Kaa warns them that The Watcher does not usually like visitors.

     

    At the foot of the mountain, they discover the remains of Claire's crashed airplane, which at first convinces Jessica that Claire is dead. However, upon continuing to the top of the mountain, they discover Claire trapped in a hollow crystalline sphere. Claire, surprisingly recognizes Corax. She explains that when she was a teenager, she was lost in the woods, but was saved by a boy with black hair and a cloak of feathers. She tried to thank him, but he turned into a raven and flew away. Ever since then, she has been feeding the local ravens in hopes he will return. 

     

    Jessica attempts to free Claire, but is stopped when The Watcher-- a colossal shadowy entity resembling a mass of oily writhing ooze, studded with eyes-- emerges from the depths of the mountain and speaks. The Watcher states that, while he has great power, he envies humans for their ability to shape their world and create works of great beauty. He seeks to use Claire's body as a vessel to become human. Jessica, Corax, Bohra-Kaa, and Claire all protest, but all come to nothing. The Watcher attempts to merge with Claire, only to be stopped when Jessica offers herself to it in Claire's place.

     

    The Watcher is stunned by Claire's sacrifice, and frees Claire. It states that Jessica's love for her aunt far exceeds its own selfish desires, and that it regrets having forcibly separated them. Jessica, Claire, and Corax are then returned to the island, with Corax still in his human form. The movie ends with Jessica commenting that while she thought Claire was weird and boring, she turned out to be a lot more interesting.

     

    As the credits roll, a photo montage of Jessica, Claire, and Corax's activities over the summer plays. 

     


     

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